but even if it were, what it would show is that people really are not committed to Kerry and could easily be truned away from him. And that could happen just as easily in a GE as in a primary.
I think what we are seeing tonight is the result of several things. First, Kerry was back into Senate speak in the debate. I really think the most telling moment was when Edwards, going after Kerry, said that it was the longest response he'd ever heard to a yes or no question.
Second, Edwards was again the beneficiary of late endorsement(s) by major newspaper(s). I believe had Dean won the D-R endorsement he would have pulled out IA narrowly and then won NH, because Edwards would not have become a factor. But part of what is happening is that people who tune in just at the end and get a first impression from a late or final debate are likley to be most impressed by Edwards, by the way he presents himself, and by the clarity of what he says. Dean is hurt by the visuals -- he does not come acrossas well on TV as he does in person. I've often wondered if he were using a make-up man who was rejected by Richard Nixon [that IS a joke, folks]. I think Kerry comes across as far too angry, trying way too hard to prove he's an alpha male.
Now imagine yourself a Democartic voter, who has not made up your mind. You watch that debate this weekend, and then wakeup to two important papers, in Milwaukee and Madison, endorsing the guy you thought made the best impression.
Kerry may well pull out a narrow win tonight. And he in theory has an advantage that he can outspend Edwards down the stretch, and he will try to make the argument that since he has opted out he can compete with Bush whereas Edwards, having stayed in, cannot.
BUT - I think the press genuinely likes Edwards, whereas I'm not sure they do Kerry. And Edwards doing well prolongs the nomination fight, which means air time and column inches (and the accompanying expense accounts) for those involved in covering politics. If Edwards is within 5 points of Kerry, as I think he will be, that will be the story, especially given how far Kerry fell in the past week. And from I have seen of exit polling, i do not believe the Drudge story had any major impact on those results.
I know how many have jumped on the bandwagon, who will now be trying to cover their rear ends, and trying to bring it to a close. But I expect there will be one really important group of people who can ensure that Edwards stays alive, and that is Big Dog and spouse. I believe that Edwards may well avhe been their original candidate, and that Clark was nudged into the race when Edwrads did not take off. And given how much Kerry is being pushed by Kennedy, it would not be at all unlike Clinton to want to do something to offset the influence of Kennedy. And even though kerry has at times been a talking head for DLC, especially on education, I'm quite sure DLC would not be as hostile to JRE as they have been to HBD.