It's getting to be time to update my House race ratings, but I want to wait until all of the year-end FEC reports are available online. There have been several developments in the past week impacting races potentially in play in 2006, however. Rather than wait until the next update and ranking, I figured I'd do a quick diary now. Each of these news items was reported in National Journal's daily House Race Hotline, a great resource that is unfortunately subscription-only. The developments, alphabetically:
In
California 50 (a GOP-held open seat set for a special election this spring which I ranked as the #11 pickup opportunity for the Dems last time), GOP power broker and neighboring 49th District Rep. Darrell Issa endorsed former Rep. Brian Bilbray in the crowded GOP primary. Bilbray would be about the toughest potential opponent to face in the general--he held down a far more Democratic district for 3 terms in the '90s--and would have to be considered the front-runner. This could be good news or bad: should Bilbray sail through the primary, this is bad news; should this begin open hunting season on Bilbray by the other GOP hopefuls (such as nutty right-wing radio host and former Assemblyman Howard Kaloogian) this would be a good development. Incidentally, Dem candidate
Francine Busby, who was the 2004 nominee, had greater name recognition than any of the GOPers in a recent poll.
In Florida, Dems have had surprising fundraising success in three places: In Florida 09 (a GOP open seat I ranked as the #29 opportunity last time), Phyllis Busansky, one of the three Dems vying to take on State Rep. Gus Bilirakis (son of the outgoing incumbent), raised $182,000 in the fourth quarter. In Florida 16 (a race that has not cracked my list to date, but I'll strongly consider adding), Dem Tim Mahoney, who just jumped into the race, claimed over $200,000 raised in the fourth quarter of '05. The winner of the primary will face GOP Rep. Mark Foley. Finally, in Florida 22 (#18 last time), Dem State Sen. Leader Ron Klein continues to outraise GOP Rep. Clay Shaw. Klein raised $365,000 in the quarter and $1,320,000 for the year--compared to Shaw's $1,150,000.
In the Kentucky 03 race (unrated last time due to lack of candidates, but a big Dem pickup opportunity), Dem Andrew Horne, who is a Marine Lt. Col., has gotten a lot of exposure recently, appearing on Lou Dobbs's show on CNN and participating in a televised conference call with Wes Clark responding to Bush's recent speech on Iraq. He is challenging GOP Rep. Anne Northup in a lean-Dem Louisville based district, and may well be the "fighting Dem" with the best chance of victory.
In North Carolina 05 (unrated), popular Winston-Salem mayor Vernon Joines announced that he will not challenge freshman GOPer Virginia Foxx in this heavily Republican district after flirting with a bid. Foxx will likely coast now.
In New Mexico 02 (GOP seat unrated last time due to lack of a candidate), retired minister Albert Kissling announced a challenge to GOP Rep. Steve Pearce. It's nice to see the reemergence of a religious left, even if this is in all likelihood a longshot candidacy.
In Nevada 03 (GOP seat unrated last time due to lack of a candidate), Sen. Harry Reid's spokesperson, Tessa Hafen is seriously considering challenging two-term Rep. Jon Porter in a closely divided district. As of now, the only declared candidate is a convicted felon.
In Ohio 02 (unrated GOP seat), Rep. Jean Schmidt has officially drawn the tough primary candidate many expected after her smear of Rep. John Murtha. Former GOP Rep. Bob McEwen, who flirted with primary challenges to both Schmidt and Sen. Mike DeWine, announced for the former race. This likely will get nasty and bears watching although this district is ridiculously GOP (see Schmidt's victory over Paul Hackett) and the three Dems running are unknowns.
In South Carolina 05 (Dem seat I rated #19 on the defense watch list), GOP state Rep. Ralph Norman reported raising an impressive $415,000 in the 4th quarter of '05 in his challenge to veteran Dem Rep. John Spratt. Spratt has survived tough challenges before (including the GOP wave in 1994), but his distict isn't getting any more Dem-friendly. This race bears watching.
In Texas 22 (GOP seat I ranked #16 and rising), Rep. Tom DeLay is in more and more trouble. A joint University of Houston/Rice University poll of TX-22 voters conducted 1/10-12 shows former Dem Rep. Nick Lampson leading DeLay and conservative independent candidate Steve Stockman. Lampson took 30% to DeLay's 22% and Stockman's 11% (the rest were undecided). Further, one analyst said that this poll undersampled minorities, potentially understating Lampson's support. As for Stockman, he was a far-right Congressman elected in 1994 and defeated by Lampson in 1996. He was quoted on everyone's favorite "news" source as saying he's going after Lampson. The speculation is that he will attack Lampson for awhile and then drop out and endorse DeLay. Real nice guys, Stockman and DeLay.
In Vermont at Large (Dem/Indy Rep. Bernie Sanders is leaving to run for Senate. The seat was #10 on the last defense list), current Rep. Bernie Sanders is pressuring Progressive Party candidate and State Rep. David Zuckerman to drop out to avoid splitting the left's votes with presumptive Dem nominee Peter Welch, the State Sen. President Pro Tem, and potentially allowing one of the better GOP recruits, Gen. Martha Rainville, to squeak through. Meanwhile, the GOP picture got muddied as GOP State Sen. Mark Shepard jumped into the race. Depending how this shakes out, this race could be anywhere from a nailbiter to a cakewalk of almost the same magnitude as Sanders' Senate race is looking like.
In Wisconsin 08 (open GOP seat I ranked #9 on my pickup list), one of the four Dems (three serious) vying to face GOP State House Speaker John Gard (or his opponent GOP State Rep. Terri McCormick), Dr. Steve Kagen made two significant announcements: first, he received the endorsement of former Rep. Jay Johnson, who held the seat from 1996-98; second, he has a whopping $1.2 million on hand at the end of 2005. Since Gard will not lack for resources, the last announcement is particularly significant.