I have been sent an extremely interesting presentation by Dr Steven Koonin, the chief scientist at BP (it can be downloaded from
this page) which includes a few graphs and tables that shed a harsh light on our addiction on oil.
Take this one:
Despite a 23% improvement in motor efficiency, the USA increased its fuel consumption by 11% between 1990 and 2001.
or this one:
(click on pic. to see larger (220kb) version, or see the original here)
This one below shows the primary energy consumption per capita for each country around the world. The darker, the more consumption of energy
(that does not include only oil, of course)
And there is an obvious link between carbon emissions and energy use, with only slight variants in countries that are endowed with more coal (Greece, China) or hydro (Brazil) or made specific policy choices (like France with nuclear).
Of course, this will translate in massively increasing energy consumption - and carbon emissions around the world as countries keep on growing and using energy:
But let's get back to oil only.
This is US (Etats-Unis) consumption compared to others' (see China's emergence):
And this is how that oil is used, by sector. Note how power generation has been reduced to very low level, and how transport requirements have inexorable increased:
And that's what the future looks like:
But hey, who cares? Not US drivers, obviously:
And yet, the biggest worry is that, while the USA is the biggest culprit in volume, it is not the only one, and it is probably not even the most worrying for our future prospects. Look at this graph, which shows what modes of transportation people use as a function of their income, based on calculations made for the city of Santiago in Chile:
Now consider that hundreds of millions of Chinese and other Asians are reaching that fateful GDP per capita level of 5000-10,000$/y where car use takes off brutally. Even if growths slows down in a number of countries, you will still have record numbers of people reaching income levels where they can afford a car - and they WILL use one.
BP kindly rates the various solutions we have to improve things by their impact on oil supplies (the lower on the graph, the least impact on fuel consumption) and on carbon emissions (the more to the right, the less emissions):
None of the solutions proposed by Bush/Cheney do anything about emissions, and most of their solutions show scant regard for future availability issues.
But why worry, it's not like oil production is already stagnating or anything...
Addicted to oil? You bet.