Finally, as promised, I have my House update ready for you! Joy to the world!
And it's complete with cash-on-hand numbers for each summarized race. Yes, that's right, cash-on-hand numbers for every competitive race. AND links to each campaign!
And it's free!!!!!
So without further ado...here it is. Just as you've been waiting for all this time!!!!
Okay, boasting over. Read below the fold...
This time I've ranked them by likelihood of turnover, not alphabetically.
Pennsylvania 06 - Jim Gerlach (R) first elected in 2002
Primary: May 16
Geography: Philadelphia suburbs
Cash-on-Hand: Gerlach (R) $1.075 million; Murphy (D) $627,519
Gerlach had a very close call in 2004, winning only 51-49. And Lois Murphy, the 2004 nominee, is vying for a rematch. Kerry got 52% in this district. If Democrats gain just one seat in the House, it will be this one.
Iowa's 1st - Jim Nussle (R) running for Governor
Primary: June 6
Geography: Northeast Iowa
Cash-on-Hand: Braley (D) $289,324; Dix (R) $256,901
Kerry got 53% in this district. The Democratic frontrunner appears to be attorney Bruce Braley, while the GOP nominee will likely be State Rep. Bill Dix. There are others on both sides, but Braley and Dix are raising the most money and have the highest profiles.
Colorado's 7th - Bob Beauprez (R) running for Governor
Primary: August 8
Geography: Denver suburbs
Cash-on-Hand: O'Donnell (R) $517,068; Perlmutter (D) $401,061
Kerry got 51% here. The Democratic primary appears to be somewhat competitive between former State Sen. Ed Perlmutter and former State Rep. Peggy Lamm, with Perlmutter having an edge. The Republican nomination is sewn up for Higher Education Commissioner Rick O'Donnell. There is no reason this district won't be competitive this time, but we need to keep O'Donnell from becoming Beauprez's natural successor.
Illinois' 8th - Melissa Bean (D) first elected in 2004
Primary: March 21
Geography: Chicago's northern suburbs
Cash-on-Hand: Bean (D) $1.391 million; McSweeney (R) $513,920; Salvi (R) $283,852
The Republican primary is a battle mostly between businessman David McSweeney and right-wing darling Kathy Salvi. My bet is on McSweeney to carry the GOP torch, since he is out-raising Salvi. While Bean herself has shown amazing fundraising prowess, she has her weaknesses, especially with the liberal base, because of her vote for CAFTA and the bankruptcy bill (both of which benefit this wealthy, GOP-leaning district).
New Mexico's 1st - Heather Wilson (R) first elected in 1998
Primary: June 6
Geography: Albuquerque area
Cash-on-Hand: Wilson (R) $978,794; Madrid (D) $431,471
Kerry won narrowly here. Wilson is facing possibly the toughest opponent of her career: State Attorney General Patricia Madrid. Madrid is sure to get a boost from Gov. Bill Richardson, who is expected to get an easy reelection. And as you can see, Madrid is fundraising decently, especially given that she only entered the race in October. Like all the races previously mentioned, this is a must-win for the Democrats.
Louisiana's 3rd - Charlie Melancon (D) first elected in 2004
Primary: November 7 (Election Day), with a runoff, if necessary, on December 9
Geography: Southeast Louisiana
Cash-on-Hand: Melancon (D) $880,413; Romero (R) $345,809
Melancon was already vulnerable after eking by in 2004, but after Katrina displaced so many people, the political landscape here is downright chaos. Some have said that most of the population losses were in GOP-friendly areas of the 3rd, while others say that more Dem areas were affected. Either way, this will be close, with Melancon facing State Sen. Craig Romero, a 2004 candidate who didn't make it to the runoff. Since Melancon probably won't win an outright majority on November 7, this may be the last race in the country to be decided.
Indiana's 8th - John Hostettler (R) first elected in 1994
Primary: May 2
Geography: Southwest Indiana
Cash-on-Hand: Ellsworth (D) $370,706; Hostettler (R) $36,587
The Bloody Eighth may see its closest race since 1996 this year, as Hostettler faces a high-profile and well-known opponent in Vanderburgh County Sheriff Brad Ellsworth. This is one of the few districts where the challenger out-raises the incumbent every time (Hostettler focuses more on GOTV than on fundraising). This is historically one of the most unpredictable and, well, "bloody" seats in the nation. Ellsworth is also the best candidate we've had here in years.
Indiana's 9th - Mike Sodrel (R) first elected in 2004
Primary: May 2
Geography: Southeast Indiana
Cash-on-Hand: Sodrel (R) $612,211; Hill (D) $564,354
This was the second-closest House race last time (after Louisiana's 3rd). Sodrel barely edged out incumbent Baron Hill, mainly off of the coattails of President Bush, who won the 9th in a landslide. But Hill is in for a rematch. While Sodrel now has the advantage of incumbency, he is going up against someone who served for six years. This one should come down to the wire.
Kentucky's 4th - Geoff Davis (R) first elected in 2004
Primary: May 16
Geography: Northern Kentucky
Cash-on-Hand: Davis (R) $441,384; Lucas (D) N/A
In an open-seat situation (2004), Davis won strongly, but since former Rep. Ken Lucas, a Democrat who represented this heavily GOP district from 1998 until retiring in 2004, is running for his old seat, a more relevant result may be that of 2002, when Lucas defeated Davis 51-48. The incumbency has flipped, but the political winds favor Lucas. So this one will be a toss-up all the way. I don't have cash-on-hand numbers for Lucas because he entered the race on January 30.
Georgia's 8th - Jim Marshall (D) first elected in 2002
Primary: July 18
Geography: Central Georgia
Cash-on-Hand: Marshall (D) $858,986; Collins (R) $542,469
A recent redistricting in Georgia has vastly changed things. Marshall was targeted: his old 3rd district went 52% for Bush in 2000, but the new 8th was 58% Bush in 2000. Many of his constituents will be new, and that is never good news for an incumbent. He is also facing former Rep. Mac Collins, a Republican who represented many of these areas from 1992 to 2004. A poll not too long ago indicated that Marshall remains popular, but call me crazy for remaining cautious.
Ohio's 6th - Ted Strickland (D) running for Governor
Primary: May 2
Geography: Eastern Ohio
Cash-on-Hand: Wilson (D) $436,674; Blasdel (R) $296,614
The likely nominees are State Sen. Charlie Wilson on the Democratic side and State House Speaker Pro Tem Chuck Blasdel on the Republican side. While Bush won here narrowly, Strickland coattails will be big here. I'm not ready to dub this as safe for Wilson by any means, but so far he seems slightly favored.
Arizona's 8th - Jim Kolbe (R) retiring after 11 terms
Primary: September 12
Geography: Southern Arizona, east of Tucson
Cash-on-Hand: Giffords (D) $242,123; Hellon (R) N/A; Weiss (D) N/A
This should be a good race, though Repubs maintain a slight advantage (Bush got 53% here). The recent entry of former news anchor Patty Weiss makes the Democratic primary interesting, with Weiss' main competition coming from former State Sen. Gabrielle Giffords; meanwhile, the Republicans will probably pick an establishment candidate (like former State GOP Chairman Mike Hellon) over far-right former State Rep. Randy Graf. A Democratic win here would be the first since 1982.
Connecticut's 4th - Chris Shays (R) first elected in 1987
Primary: August 8
Geography: New York City suburbs
Cash-on-Hand: Shays (R) $892,552; Farrell (D) $451,958
While Shays did quite weakly two years ago, I can't help but wonder if that was due to Kerry coattails. Nevertheless, that was Shays' first close race in many years, and 2004 nominee Diane Farrell is in for a rematch. Given that she did so well, I have to assume she will keep it close this time. She may even defeat Shays. But he remains very well-liked by many moderates.
Connecticut's 2nd - Rob Simmons (R) first elected in 2000
Primary: August 8
Geography: Eastern Connecticut
Cash-on-Hand: Simmons (R) $803,371; Courtney (D) $450,893
Though John Kerry got 57% in this district, Simmons remains slightly favored. He accomplished the unthinkable in unseating 10-term Democrat Sam Gejdenson, and ever since then he has been good at narrowly winning reelection. 2002 nominee Joe Courtney is challenging Simmons again, and he should keep it close (as always), but Simmons is not yet in danger territory.
Iowa's 3rd - Leonard Boswell (D) first elected in 1996
Primary: June 6
Geography: Des Moines area
Cash-on-Hand: Boswell (D) $658,675; Lamberti (R) $280,235
Republicans are bullish about their chances to beat Boswell, whose age and ill health make him less able to campaign fiercely. His opponent is State Sen. Jeff Lamberti, one of the few great GOP recruits this year. Lamberti should make it close, especially given that this is one of the most closely-divided districts in America (Bush won it by a hair in 2004, but Gore won it by a hair in 2000). Yet Boswell is a 5-term incumbent, and one without a whole lot of controversy.
Florida's 22nd - Clay Shaw (R) first elected in 1980
Primary: September 5
Geography: South Florida coastline
Cash-on-Hand: Shaw (R) $1.476 million; Klein (D) $1.145 million
I can't believe that Shaw makes this list. But he does. Indeed, he may have the closest race of his career this round, seeing how obscenely expensive this race is going to be. His opponent is State Senate Minority Leader Ron Klein, who as you can see is nearly matching Shaw in fundraising. It is true that this district is more GOP-friendly than its old equivalent (in the new, Kerry won only 51-49), but Klein is being touted as the most competitive Democratic candidate, except possibly for Elaine Bloom in 2000, that Shaw has ever faced.
North Carolina's 11th - Charles Taylor (R) first elected in 1990
Primary: May 2
Geography: Appalachian country
Cash-on-Hand: Shuler (D) $352,986; Taylor (R) $18,724
Taylor had a narrow reelection in 2004. He also faces a star Democrat in former NFL quarterback Heath Shuler. Even though Shuler is crushing Taylor in the fundraising wars, Taylor has to be considered slightly favored, given his incumbency and the fact that Bush got nearly 60% here.
Texas' 22nd - Tom DeLay (R) first elected in 1984
Primary: March 7
Geography: Houston suburbs
Cash-on-Hand: DeLay (R) $1.164 million; Lampson (D) ???
It's obvious why this is on the list. But this is a heavily GOP district. More importantly, DeLay is a legendary power-broker and arm-twister. He does, of course, face a tough battle from former Rep. Nick Lampson, who was redistricted out of Congress by DeLay in 2004 (oh the irony), but can Lampson fight DeLay-style? We'll see, I guess. And no, the FEC site doesn't list Lampson's cash numbers.
Districts that are competitive, but favor one party:
- Minnesota's 6th - Mark Kennedy (R) is running for the Senate, and the primary battles are ugly on both sides. The sole Democratic candidate was Elwyn Tinklenberg, but today Patty Wetterling entered the race. Bloody, bloody, bloody.
- Illinois' 6th - Henry Hyde (R) is retiring after 16 terms; the open race between State Sen. Peter Roskam (R) and either 2004 nominee Christine Cegelis or Major Tammy Duckworth may be competitive. Duckworth is doing better in fundraising than Cegelis.
- Georgia's 12th - John Barrow (D) is running in a reconfigured district. It still leans Democratic, but he would be vulnerable to a primary challenge from a black Dem. Former Rep. Max Burns (R) will be a tough customer as well.
- Texas' 17th - Chet Edwards (D) routinely wins very narrowly in his heavily GOP district, but will he pull it off against Iraq war veteran Van Taylor?
- Wisconsin's 8th - Mark Green (R) is running for Governor; the race to succeed him will probably be between State Assembly Speaker John Gard on the GOP side and either businessman Jamie Wall or Brown County Executive Nancy Nusbaum on the Dem side.
- Vermont At Large - Bernie Sanders (I) is running for the Senate, and State Senate President Pro Tem Peter Welch (D) is trying hard to defend his seat. But Repubs are excited about Martha Rainville, and a third-party candidate may make things hard for Welch.
- Colorado's 3rd - John Salazar (D) is in his first term, and represents a GOP-leaning seat, though his opposition, Scott Tipton, is considered weak.
- South Carolina's 5th - John Spratt (D) has served since 1982, yet Republicans claim they have a winner in State Rep. Ralph Norman, whose fundraising is going very strongly.
Oh yeah, there's also that race that doesn't fit into any category:
Texas' 28th.
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