Kevin Drum draws attention to a piece by Steve Clemons at the Washington Note about the risk of war with Iran. Sketched from discussions with Iranian experts, Clemons gets the sense that war may be much closer than many think. Key factors are high energy costs and the perceived weakness of the White House.
But the real indicator may be the shrinking number of options available to Bush in an increasingly hostile political environment.
Bush falling farther in the polls combined with an indictment of Karl Rove might lead the embattled President to conclude that an attack on Iran simply can't wait.
UPDATE: .
Morales Sends in Troops to nationalize Bolivia's energy supplies, greatly increasing the pressure on the White House. Morales hits Bush on two fronts: energy prices go up and respect for US clout sinks further. Will Morales embolden other regional leaders to test America?
Yesterday's Latin American Leaders Unite Against Bush looks at anti-Bush militancy, the consequences of a confrontational mind-set and America's lack of soft power.
Politically Bush would take an enormous amount of flak, but may feel he has little to lose. If Bush does decide to attack, short-term strikes might win him a modicum of support and, more crucially, the initiative once more.
However, if Bush is serious about cementing his authority over Iraq, the Middle East and America, we could see something much more protracted.
You can be sure that war planners are working on the logistics and target lists to allow for all options.
A surprise pre-emptive attack on Iran at this point in time is almost unthinkable.
All calculations may go out the window, however, because of the increasing vulnerability of the President. If he gets much weaker, Bush and Cheney may just decide they can't wait.
UPDATE: Iraq's partition
may presage an imminent transfer of security responsibilities to Iraqis, freeing up US troops for an assault on Iran. More evidence the White House stance is changing from the Washington Post.
We know now that political calculations dictated the date of the attacks on Iraq. If the White House has already decided for war on Iran, politics, not military concerns, will determine the time and date.
Recall that Turkey looked to have delayed the Iraq invasion by refusing to allow the US to stage from bases there. Politics demanded Bush attack before an alternative to invasion could be found. The attack went ahead on schedule, even though that meant losing the chance to control large parts of Iraq. Bush may believe that he must attack Iran now or lose the opportunity.
Bush is losing his base. Support for war is eroding like the levees in New Orleans. Pushed into a corner, the White House is quite capable of attacking Iran and blaming the whole thing on Tehran. His numbers are likely to keep dropping.
Anything may happen.