Today Israel attacked Lebanon in what can only be described as a massive act of war. They are mobilizing some reserves, variously reported as 1- 2 divisions of troops, which , according to Stratfor, is a sign that they will invade Lebanon in the next few days, probably launching a lightening strike to do as much damage to Hezbolllah as possible. In addition, there is now a war of words going on between Syria and Israel, and Iran has stated that they will get involved if Syria is attacked by Israel; this reminds me greatly of WW1 and the lead up to it.
So what are peoples thoughts? I am amazed there is no front page discussion on this, oil reached almost 77$ a barrel today, and if this crisis expands I think we are easily looking at 100$ + oil in a week or two. Additionally if Israel does attack Syria, I believe a wider conflict with little or no chance of negotiated resolution is possible; and in fact there is no clear end game, as there are multiple players all with very different interests involved. This is not like WW2 where its clear the goal is defeat the Nazis, rather a large chunk of the worlds oil reserves is up for grabs (Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia maybe 50% or more of known reserves) as well as the chance for several powers to settle regional conflicts ( ie Israel bombs the Palestinians back into the stone age or worse, just one) the permutations are almost too numerous to count.
As an addtional complication, China, India, and Russia all would like acces to those oil reserves; with peak oil close at hand there is no question that at some point this could erupt into a world war for resources.
so
what do people think...