Today's Baltimore Sun is publishing a poll showing a narrowed 46% to 38% lead for challenger Martin O'Malley over incumbent governor and noted right-wing lackey Bob Ehrlich. With four months left in the race, this probably seems to non-Marylanders a safe lead.
If you're a Marylander, however, and I've been one since 1986, you're probably less reassured, since you probably remember the lead Kathleen Townsend had this time four years ago, and how she stood there and did absolutely nothing while her lead dwindled away to a spectacular Election Day train wreck. I know I certainly remember the morning after this election pretty well -- the hangover I had could have been measured on the fucking Richter Scale.
Another cause for concern in the article is Bob Ehrlich's high statewide approval rating: 55% approval, compared to 36% disapproval. This shows that the O'Malley campaign is clearly failing to tie Baltimore Gas and Electric's attempted 72% electric rate increase to BGE's patron saint, Bob Ehrlich. The rancor generated even in conservative areas of the state over this rate increase should be a potent weapon to flip borderline counties in Maryland into the O'Malley column.
Ehrlich has done nothing in his four-year term but attempt to reward his big donors -- the gambling/racing industry, big developers, and big energy. He has done absolutely nothing for working families.
The withdrawal from the race last month of O'Malley's primary opponent, Doug Duncan, should focus the O'Malley campaign on knocking down Bobby Smooth. O'Malley has the ability to be a hard-ass, bare-knuckled campaigner, and he will need to start punching hard, and quit trying to coast into the State House a la Townsend. If Ehrlich still has approvals above 50% by October, a lot of us Maryland types might just have to start drinking early.