The word on the street is this:
Lamont closed the gap from -24 to -11 (or -13 if you count leaners). This is the rate of change that Lamont managed to achieve among the Democratic primary voters from April to August, so to see the same rate among general election voters is pretty impressive. (Better phrasing?)
Another phrase to interpret this poll: It shows that "non-partisan" Joe is, just like in 1988, running to the right of the Republican in the race.
Hit those radio stations and local newspaper editors: your work to interpret this poll as favorable for Lamont, and as a sign of Lieberman's true colors, will help to make the coverage of this poll work to Ned's advantage. Poll details and editors to write to after the flip.
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/...
Connecticut Sen. Joseph Lieberman, running as an independent, gets 53 percent of likely voters, with 41 percent for Democratic primary winner Ned Lamont and 4 percent for Republican Alan Schlesinger, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
Among registered voters, Sen. Lieberman gets 49 percent, followed by Lamont with 38 percent and Schlesinger with 4 percent. This compares to a 51 - 27 percent Lieberman lead over Lamont, with 9 percent for Schlesinger in a July 20 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.
The money quote:
In this latest survey, Lieberman leads 75 - 13 - 10 percent among likely Republican voters, and 58 - 36 - 3 percent among likely independent voters, while likely Democratic voters back Lamont 63 - 35 percent. Two percent are undecided, but 28 percent of those who name a candidate might change their mind before Election Day.
Some interesting details:
Lieberman is outpolling his favorables among Republicans by 13 points. This means two things: that there's an incumbent effect that will be eroded as people tune into the race - so Joe will have to work to hold this base above 50%. Schlesinger's 4% rate comes from a 5% name ID among Republicans - so he's going to have to run negative against Lieberman to claim back his natural territory. This will be interesting
Framing effect: Lieberman is polled first, which frames the conversation as a referendum on Lieberman. Is this beneficial? I think Rasmussen rotates, so that may account for some of the difference. People are asked to commit for or against Lieberman before getting a chance to consider the other candidates, while in the voting booth, people will read Schlesinger (since Rell is Governor), then Lamont, then Green, Independent, then Lieberman. This might be a reasonable request to make of Quinnipiac if they are not rotating candidate order.
Lieberman still under 50 without leaners: 49-38-1. of course, always the danger zone for the incumbent. However, the undecideds are quite small - 7% undecided, 1% wouldn't vote. For those interested, see here for a MyDD post on the incumbent rule and how it's changing over time.
Trendline: From the July 20 poll, Lamont has closed the gap by 13 points.
7/20: 27 - 51 - 9
8/17: 38 - 49 - 4
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Media contacts: Early coverage is looking bad for Ned, even though the poll is moderately good news (though not good enough to force Joe out of the race.) Write to your own metro papers if their website features an article, and request that they update their article with [x] before going to press. Here are the CT media outlets and their coverage if you want to respond:
Hartford Courant
NH Register
NY Times
WTIC coverage - contacts
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