While I still remain slightly skeptical of automated polls, it seems that L'Affaire Macaca has done serious harm to Senator George Felix Allen Jr. in the 2006 VA Senate race. Challenger James Webb (D) is now in a statistical dead heat with the Senator.
According to Washington, DC CBS affiliate, WUSA, "In an election for the United States Senate in Virginia today, 8/21/06, incumbent Republican George Allen edges Democrat challenger James Webb 48% to 45%, according to an exclusive SurveyUSA poll conducted for W*USA-TV in Washington, DC."
The poll carried a margin of error of 4.2%, making the race statistically tied. More after the flip.
Starting on August 18th,
SurveyUSA sampled 576 likely voters in Virginia. Perhaps most striking was Allen drop among younger voters--he went from being up by 23 points over Webb, to being down 17. Do the math, and it means younger voters swung 40 points in Webb's direction. Among self-described independents (Virginia has no party registration), Webb now leads 44-42.
So what does all this mean? One, we have a helluva race on our hands now. It also means Allen will be going on the offensive, and with his sizeable money advantage, he has the potential to inflict harm on someone other than himself this time. And with Dick Wadhams by his side, one can be sure it will get nasty.
Also, right now, some 15% of Virginians who disapprove of the POTUS are still supporting George Felix Allen. We need to get the message out to them that Senator Allen is every bit the rubber stamp for President Bush that we all know he is. The "macaca" incident will only get so us so far. We need people to know the real Allen record of marching in lock step with the president and we need them to know what James Webb will do differently.
If anyone is interested in turning this seat blue and killing the presidential ambitions of George Felix Allen Jr., they can contribute to James Webb here.