Although I have commented regularly on Daily Kos for a number of years and have TU status, this is my first diary. This is the first time I felt I had something important enough to report to justify a diary. The New York 29th Congressional district is largely rural and will never have a regular non-partisan poll to show how the candidates are doing, so what I have to offer is the next best thing (or perhaps it is actually better than a poll). It is a column written on September 3 by Joe Dunning who is the managing editor of The Leader, Corning New York's only newspaper. So this news comes from the part of the 29th district where Massa's opponent is strongest. Those who know him say that Joe Dunning may lean a bit to the conservative side, but is a straight shooter.
I contacted Mr. Dunning and secured his permission to post most of the column on the understanding that it would not be reprinted for political purposes. So it is presented here simply as news without any call for contributions etc. and I would ask all those who read it to honor the letter and spirit of my agreement with him. I would simply provide a link to the column if that were possible, but although the newspaper has a web site: www.the-leader.com it is not possible to link to the story. Since this story is not available in any other way I hope that I will be allowed to quote at much greater length than would ordinarily be desirable. I am the author of a number of books and articles so I understand the copyright laws regarding printed materials and securing Mr Dunning's permission to quote from his column meets the requirements of those laws. So here is Joe Dunning's analysis of the race:
"Early rounds go to the blue corner
A way political campaigns can be followed is to look at them like they're 12-round prize fights. After all, both require endurance, finesse and strategy and are often not determined until the very end.
In that context, the fight to represent the 29th Congressional District between incumbent U.S. Rep. Randy Kuhl and challenger Eric Massa is in the early rounds. Many in the audience are still filing in and taking their seats.
But so far, Massa, a newcomer to the political circle, has taken the fight to Kuhl and out-pointed him the first few rounds. The Democrat has dictated the action, stuck to a game plan and kept Kuhl on the defensive.
From a ringside seat, I've seen Massa score points in three ways:
The Iraq War. Early on Massa declared Kuhl's trip to Iraq in August meant the incumbent had made the war the top issue in the campaign. Kuhl never said as much and simply gave a "cautiously optimistic" view of the war effort.
Massa contended Kuhl's actions meant more than his words and kept the unpopular Iraq War in the forefront. It's the same strategy Democrats are using against Republicans nationwide and it's proving effective.
The debates. Massa came out and challenged Kuhl to eight debates, one in every county in the district. Kuhl agreed to debate, but has yet to commit stating he'll be in Washington until the House recesses in October. By then, only a few debates could be held.
Kuhl has a reasonable excuse, saying the district's business comes first. And political front runners -- which Kuhl is -- often feel there's little to gain by giving their opponents face-time. But they also run the risk of looking like they're ducking their opponent and cheating constituents of the strengths and weaknesses debates can reveal.
MoveOn.org. The liberal Web site has done as much, if not more, in recent weeks to ruffle Kuhl than his opponent. The Web site, as it has to other Republican incumbents, accused Kuhl in TV spots of pandering to defense contractors like Halliburton by not supporting measures calling for penalties for abusers and more federal oversight.
Kuhl first held a press conference last week saying the ads were full of "lies, lies, lies." Then he ran an ad attempting to discredit the Web site and link it to Massa, who has repeatedly disavowed an association with the group.
Smelling blood, MoveOn.org. said Friday it was increasing its TV ads against Kuhl to total nearly $100,000.
All of this plays into Massa's hand. It appears Kuhl has lost sight of who his opponent is by flailing away at a Web site with little or nothing to gain. While Kuhl has been taking on cyberspace, Massa has been out throwing body shots against Kuhl, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and the Bush administration that have made the national wire.
Bear in mind, there are 65 days left until the election, plenty of time for momentum changes, counter punches, standing 8-counts and possible knock-out blows.
The determining factor, of course, will be the vote tallies on Nov. 7. Kuhl is still the favorite in a district where Republicans outnumber Democrats but he has yet to play to his strength - which is bringing $250 million worth of pork and programs to the district since taking office.
There are still plenty more rounds for this fight to go, but so far it favors the underdog."
One of the most difficult problems for Eric Massa has been that people have tended to believe he could not possibly win what is often called the most Republican district in the state. Daily Kos has been strongly behind him from the start and this column proves the wisdom of that position.