With 22 days until Election Day 2006, the polling landscape continues to be dominated by stories of Democratic strength and Republican weakness, as attested to by this Monday edition of Following the Polls. Both at the national and local levels, the "macro wave" election theme still appears to be dominant, and 2006 looks more and more like 1994 (as Stuart Rothenberg wrote today by way of confirmation).
We have two national polls out today, both of which show continued damage to the Republican brand name in general, and President Bush's job approval in particular. Meanwhile, we have new numbers in 19 individual races. Nearly all of them confirm the blue wave that is apparently not weakening as we head towards Election Day. Now, in fairness, many of them are internal polls. But the dearth of internal polls coming from the other side is beginning to get particularly telling.
Follow me across the jump for all of the numerical information.
NATIONAL POLLS
Both CNN and Gallup come in with polls today (for those with a sense of history, yes, I must remind you that they are now "divorced").
CNN shows a three-point drop in the Bush job approval rating in one week, as Bush now registers at 36% job approval, with 61% expressing disapproval. Meanwhile, their generic Congressional ballot does not contain the same blowout levels registered last week, but it remains at a historically high margin between the two parties (Democrats lead among LV's, 56-40).
Meanwhile, Gallup gives us only Bush job approval (at least, at present). Gallup has the President sitting on 37% job approval, which holds steady from last week. 57% disapprove of the President's job performance, according to Gallup.
The Rasmussen tracking poll, FWIW, holds the President at 42% job approval for the second straight day.
INDIVIDUAL RACES
AZ-05: Rep. Hayworth (R) 48%, Mitchell (D) 45% [Dems]
SurveyUSA hits House races hard today, with four new polls. Significantly, Democrats made up between 9-13 points in all of the House races polled today. Mitchell also came in with an excellent 3rd quarter FEC report. This is a race, friends. Hayworth is going to have to grind out re-election for the first time since Steve Owens was giving chase back in the mid-1990s.
CA-50: Rep. Bilbray (R) 49%, Busby (D) 46% [Dems]
So...it seems like some irresponsible Dems (cough, cough...me included) wrote this rematch off a little bit early. SurveyUSA has this race back within single digits. And with Bilbray possibly facing indictment for election fraud (over the legality of his CA residency), this could turn interesting at the last.
CO-05: Lamborn (R) 49%, Fawcett (D) 32% [GOP]
CAVEAT: This is a Republican poll, done for the Club for Growth by Basswood Research. This is obviously an attempt by the Club For Growth to attempt to silence the growing buzz about this race. Forget for a moment that even if I bought this poll (which I don't), 49% is PATHETIC for a Republican in the Colorado 5th....
CT-04: Farrell (D) 44%, Rep. Shays (R) 40% [Dems]
CAVEAT: This is a Democratic poll, done for the DCCC by Bennett Pitts Blumenthal. I have noticed this year that while Democratic internal polls are certainly favorable to the Dems, they at least remain tethered to reality (unlike the previous entry). Is Farrell ahead here? She may well be--Shays' intemperance the last couple of weeks have garnered him some deserved bad press (although he did have the decency to rap the NRSC for a dirty ad, and also to walk back the Abu Ghraib commentary).
CT-05: Murphy (D) 45%, Rep. Johnson (D) 40% [Dems]
CAVEAT: This is a Democratic poll, done for the DCCC by Grove Insight. Sorry, fellow Democrats, but I am not buying that Murphy has a bigger lead in CT-05 than Farrell has in CT-04. In fact, I am not sure I buy that Murphy is in the lead. Johnson was up 6 in a public poll released last week. I think the truth is somewhere in-between: Johnson up 2-4 points.
IL-08: Rep. Bean (D) 49%, McSweeney (R) 33% [Dems]
CAVEAT: This is a Democratic poll, taken for the Bean campaign by Bennett Pitts Blumenthal. I still seriously doubt that the margin is this wide, but I AM beginning to believe that Bean is leading McSweeney in this most vulnerable of Democratic-held districts. One important factor, independent Bill Schuerer is garnering 7% of the vote, and according to this BPB poll, he is taking pretty evenly from Bean and McSweeney. Ergo, Bean only needs 46-48% of the vote in order to win this election.
IL-10: Rep. Kirk (R) 49%, Seals (D) 32% [GOP]
CAVEAT: This is an internal poll, taken for the Seals campaign by the Mellman Group. I will probably spend some of this evening beating my head against a wall and trying to determine where the Seals campaign got the inspiration to release a poll that shows their candidate losing by 17%. Cardinal rule for any of you planning on becoming campaign managers: generally speaking, it is a bad idea to release polling which shows your candidate has little-to-no chance of actually winning. UPDATE: A couple of local supporters claim that this number is only for those who do not know either candidate. Among those familiar, the numbers apparently reverse: Seals by 14. However, the numbers on a pure trial heat are unclear.
KS-GOV: Gov. Sebellius (D) 55%, Barnett (R) 42% [Dems]
This SurveyUSA poll confirms what I have long suspected: Governor Kathleen Sebellius is in little danger of losing. Kansas being Kansas, however, she is unlikely to beat any Republican in a landslide. There are 40%+ of Kansans who will vote Republican pretty much reflexively. Still, Sebellius maintains a solid edge, and is a strong favorite for re-election.
KS-AG: Morrison (D) 56%, A.G. Kline (R) 43% [Dems]
Normally, I do not include downballot races, but this is one with national implications. Phill Kline is the Attorney General of Kansas, and his pulpit-based campaign (as well as his alleged harrassment of women who sought abortions) have made him a cause celebre among many on the right. Paul Morrison, the DA of Johnson County, actually switched parties to run against Kline. Once trailing narrowly, Morrison has now surged into the lead. An upset in the making, and one that will delight Kansas progressives (all nine of them :).....).
KS-02: Rep. Ryun (R) 50%, Boyda (D) 33% [GOP]
CAVEAT: This is a Republican poll, taken for the Ryun campaign by Wilson Research. This is another act of political insulation: a poll to say, "Look, everyone! I am not in as much political trouble as you think!!" Given recent Democratic polls have the race at 2-4 points, expect the truth to lie somewhere in the middle. I currently project the race to be a Ryun lead of 7 points.
MN-02: Rep. Kline (R) 50%, Rowley (D) 42% [Dems]
This SurveyUSA poll shows a significant twelve point tightening of this race, as Rowley storms back from a 20-point deficit. Significant for Kline: An independent candidate is pulling 5% in polling. This means that as long as Kline can stop his slide (he went from 55 to 50 in one month), he is still favored to win.
NM-01: Madrid (D) 53%, Rep. Wilson (R) 45% [Dems]
This SurveyUSA poll becomes the third nonpartisan poll to show a Madrid lead of at least five points. This also represents a 13-point swing from the last SUSA poll on this race. Something has changed the fundamental dynamics in New Mexico, and it has changed them apparently in Patricia Madrid's favor.
NY-GOV: Spitzer (D) 68%, Faso (R) 22% [Dems]
Siena Research offers us a poll in this race, and it confirms the Spitzer landslide. Yawn.
NY-SEN: Sen. Clinton (D) 59%, Spencer (R) 32% [Neutral]
Interestingly, whereas once the Spitzer and Clinton numbers were fairly similar, Spitzer is now dispatching his opponent with considerably more ease than Clinton is dispatching her opponent. Possibly the left in New York is still not in deep and abiding love with their senator....
NY-20: Rep. Sweeney (R) 42%, Gillibrand (D) 41% [Dems]
CAVEAT: This is a Democratic poll, taken for the DCCC by Grove Insight. This is a race that is just begging for a nonpartisan poll, and apparently, Majority Watch will be giving us one this week. You see, all the Dem polls have had this race as a toss-up, and all of the GOP polls have had Sweeney leading by double digits. The truth? We'll see later this week, apparently.
PA-08: P. Murphy (D) 44%, Rep. Fitzpatrick (R) 40% [Dems]
CAVEAT: Another Democratic poll, taken for the DCCC by Grove Insight. Another race where I'd like to see some independent polling confirm what the internals have been showing: a clear and consistent trend towards the challenger. His internals have shifted about eleven points in a month. Where once he trailed by 5-7, he now leads, according to this DCCC poll.
WA-SEN: Sen. Cantwell (D) 51%, McGavick (R) 43% [GOP]
This race has crept back within single digits, according to a poll this evening by SurveyUSA. Cantwell still polls over 50%, however, and still must be considered the betting favorite to earn re-election. Bush job approval is just 38% here, according to the SUSA poll. That might make it hard for McGavick to pull this out.
WY-GOV: Gov. Freudenthal (D) 63%, Hunkins (R) 30% [Dems]
This Mason-Dixon poll is particularly frustrating, because it gives us numbers for the gubernatorial and Senate races, which are uncompetitive. It does not (at least yet) give us numbers about the potential barn-burner brewing between Rep. Barbara Cubin and Democrat Gary Trauner for the state's sole House seat. Anyways...Freudenthal is doing the unthinkable here--winning election in Wyoming. As a Democrat. In a landslide. As Kos pointed out, it would not hurt for Freudenthal to throw some love in Trauner's direction.
WY-SEN: Sen. Thomas (R) 67%, Groutage (D) 26% [GOP]
My fear is that these two polls are confirming a trend in Wyoming that will be bad news for Trauner--strong incumbents polling very well, regardless of party. Thomas is winning this one in a walk.