With the recent diaries by
BruinKid and
Califlander bringing into stark relief just how desperate Republicans have gotten in their bids for election -- and to what depths they are typically willing to sink to maintain power -- came a revelation to me: Republicans don't know how to win elections. They never did. Find out why I'm not crazy to say so below the jump.
I've only been seriously following national and electoral politics since 2000, and I didn't supplant mainstream media sources with blogs for my primary source until about 3 years ago. But one thing I've learned since then, and especially since this most recent election cycle, is that as a collective Republicans tend to resort to trickery to garner votes. Tricks are the bread and butter of the GOP, and for a long time I agreed with Markos and most others on the left that, darn it, but those guys just know how to win elections. They have a system for it. They could probably sell it on the self help circuit and make a fortune. I know it's not exactly moral or above board most of the time, but it seems to work, and we Dems need to get us some of that fine, fine snake oil. How do they DO it?
But my eyes have been opened today. The truth is they don't know anything at all about what it takes to win elections. They know tricks, and when the tricks stop working they lose all sense of what to do, how to adapt. And how to win.
What are the basic tricks they use? Deception (concealing or misrepresenting facts), projection (accusing the other party of their own weaknesses), repetition (speaks for itself), false equivalencies (a Dem did something similar 20 years ago, ergo the 39 Repubs under indictment are no big deal), blaming subordinates ("my overzealous staffer was the one to purge all artists, philosophers and scientists from the voter rolls! Bad overzealous staffer!"), fear mongering (vote for my opponent and terr'ists will kill you in the shower), and of course -- as we're seeing with Blackwell in Ohio -- simple Rovian dirty tricks using technicalities combined with many of the above. And let's add to that the fabled Republican "message discipline" which, while not a trick per se, does cause them to vote along party lines more often than is good for them, as we will see.
Here's the big reveal, if you haven't guessed by now. Republicans do win elections, and they know that these tricks have helped to get them elected, as well as to get them majority rule in every chamber; but what happens when those tricks stop working? What happens when the majority of voters finally cotton on to the ploys and no longer avoid thinking critically? What happens when the majority of voters begin to long for a candidate who can say and do things that are, dare I say, noble? What happens when the majority of voters decide that the guy who kicks sand in the face of the 98 pound weakling is maybe, just maybe, not the guy you want to be representing you? Suddenly the rules of engagement have changed, at least if you want to win.
And that's why Republicans don't know how to win elections. They know how to play dirty, but when playing dirty is no longer considered acceptable by the electorate they become stymied. They've used the same playbook for so long they think that's all there is, and are unable to adapt to the change in the climate. And they will most likely lose as a result.
Let's take the recent incident that prompted this diary, the one with Ken Blackwell in Ohio. As the Times editorial states, the idea to file a complaint that Strickland is not a qualified voter in Ohio (Rovian tricks) wasn't Blackwell's, but rather came from "some Blackwell supporters" (blaming subordinates). The editorial continues, saying that "[t]he county board that heard it broke down 2 to 2, on party lines, about whether to hold a hearing." Here we see the message discipline working, with Republican seats voting to continue pursuing this ridiculous line of assault. Since in the event of a tie vote the complaint gets "forwarded to the secretary of state's office to be resolved," Blackwell has to put it in the hands of his assistant to avoid conflicts of interest, thus reiterating the "blaming subordinates" trick if the complaint is upheld. On top of all that, the whole point of the complaint seems to be an attempt to paint Ted Strickland as some corrupt carpetbagger (projection AND false equivalency), an attempt so transparently false on its face that it seems absurd to assume it wouldn't backfire.
In order for this scheme to work (as Max Bialystock might say) Blackwell and his supporters have to rely on the climate being what it was, and has been for the past decade or so. Unfortunately for them, the climate has changed. The fourth estate, rather than accepting the charge as potentially viable and relevant, instead chose to immediately stomp all over the legitimacy of the complaint, as they well should considering its frivolous standing. Instead of being in a position to get away with the most basic dirty tricks and hide their tracks, Republicans are already on the defensive against the latest CW that corruption and power-lust has rendered a great many of them unfit to hold office. And the party line vote on the county board only highlights the partisan nature of the attack.
If I were a GOP operative, my advice to Blackwell from the beginning would have been: claim the moral high ground. Condemn the accusation as without basis, and publicly state that you want the election to be based on the merits and values of the candidates. It doesn't matter that it's probably not true. In today's climate, such an act would garner you a couple of extra points for behaving honorably. When the story is already framed as "Ohio Republicans are desperate," anything less will automatically be perceived as a desperate attempt to smear your opponent, and will backfire horribly. The dirty tricks won't work this time.