Ah, remember the good old days when I said there wasn't much new polling data to report? Yep, that's done now. And my guess is that it will continue to escalate as we get closer to Election Day 2006.
While there is only a small report on the national scene, it is worth noting that we have new numbers in 31 individual contests.
Well, Hell, enough small talk. Although pay particular attention to the Missouri Senate numbers...I think that they are worthy of debate. So...with that in mind, let's go below the fold.
NATIONAL POLLING
As I said, very thin on the national numbers today. All we get is an addendum to yesterday's USA Today/Gallup poll. All we got yesterday was the generic ballot numbers, which gave Democrats a 13-point lead (54-41). Today, we get the Bush job approval numbers, which are unchanged from last week: Bush has 37% job approval, with 58% saying that they disapprove.
INDIVIDUAL RACES
In this edition of FTP, we see 31 races with new numbers. In all, fifteen of them show momentum shifts to the Democrats (although most of them small). Nine of them show momentum shifts to the GOP, and seven of them have stagnant, or neutral, momentum. Here are the numbers:
AZ-01: Rep. Renzi (R) 45%, Simon (D) 32% [GOP]
This new independent poll from Northern Arizona University gives a touch of sobering news for the Democrats, who had believed that this race was really tightening. However, a cautionary note--this is one of those rare races in Campaign 2006 where the Democrats and the Independents (both of whom Simon is leading handily) are the bulk of the undecided voters.
AR-GOV: Beebe (D) 49%, Hutchinson (R) 41% [GOP]
Rasmussen comes out today with a raft of polling, particularly on the gubernatorial races. In Arkansas, Republican Asa Hutchinson picks up a couple of points, but still trails outside the margin of error. This, along with Ohio, are the two red states that have really turned anti-Bush in the last year or so, according to the SUSA 50-state tracking poll.
CO-GOV: Ritter (D) 51%, Beauprez (R) 39% [GOP]
Another day, another Colorado gubernatorial poll showing the Democrat, Bill Ritter, with a double-digit advantage. Curiously, this Rasmussen poll does show the race a bit closer than previous polling. Rasmussen had it at sixteen points last month, while SurveyUSA had it at eighteen points over the weekend.
CT-04: Rep. Shays (R) 43%, Farrell (D) 43% [Dems]
This UConn poll, taken for the Hartford Courant, brings dire news for the longtime incumbent Republican, Chris Shays. The five-point drop in the trial heat from the previous UConn poll is bad news. Worse news for him: his job approval has cratered, dropping from 58% to 45% in just three weeks. Also, Iraq is now the #1 issue in the district--which plays right into Farrell's hands. Also, this poll was taken before the Green Party candidate elected to drop out of the race.
GA-GOV: Gov. Perdue (R) 48%, Taylor (D) 31% [Neutral]
The amazing consistency of the InsiderAdvantage tracking poll in this state continues. Taylor continues to trail by mid-double digits, while Libertarian Garett Hayes gets 9% of the vote for the 295th survey in a row.
IN-07: Rep. Carson (D) 48%, Dickerson (R) 43% [Dems]
This new poll, done for WISH-TV by Research2000, is better news for Carson, but it cannot be considered good news. This cements a theory I have long held, however, this is a woman whose opponent will get 44% of the vote in that district no matter what. Happened with well-funded Brose McVey in 2002. Happened again with nuisance candidate Andy Horning in 2004.
KS-GOV: Gov. Sebelius (D) 56%, Barnett (R) 37% [Dems]
Compared to a similar poll last month by the same pollster (Rasmussen), this race seems to have broken heavily in the favor of the Democrat here. One has to wonder if this is a micro-event limited only to the Sebelius-Barnett race, or a larger trend that could sweep Republicans Phill Kline and Jim Ryun from office as well.
KY-04: Rep. Davis (R) 46%, Lucas (D) 44% [Dems]
This SurveyUSA poll puts the Democrat within two of the incumbent in this Republican district in northern Kentucky. Once again, SUSA has significant numbers for the independent candidate (Houillion), who polls at 7% of the vote, and seems to draw most of his support from Lucas. Democrats and Independents make up over 80% of the undecideds, meaning this one is an absolute nailbiter.
MA-GOV: (2 polls) Patrick (D) 54.5%, Healey (R) 30% [Dems]
This pair of polls has to be accompanied with frustrated grunts at MA-GOP headquarters, and more than a couple sighs of relief at Patrick's HQ. After a steady and seemingly interminable slide in the polls, Rasmussen (53-29) and SurveyUSA (56-31) have Patrick well ahead of Healey heading into the campaign's final fortnight. Worth noting--this IS a drop for Patrick from the last Rasmussen poll (three weeks ago), when Rasmussen had him winning by 33. However, these numbers are an improvement for Patrick over the previous SUSA poll two weeks ago. Also, quite obviously, it is significantly better than the 13-point edge Suffolk had it at last week.
MI-GOV: (2 polls) Gov. Granholm (D) 50.5%, DeVos (R) 43% [Neutral]
This really should be listed as Democratic momentum, but I am factoring in a poll from Republican pollsters Strategic Vision that is almost certainly too pessimistic for Granholm (47-43). Meanwhile, Rasmussen has this race as one-sided as they have had it all year, giving the Democratic governor a lead of eleven points (54-43).
MI-SEN: (2 polls) Sen. Stabenow (D) 51.5%, Bouchard (R) 40.5% [Neutral]
Again, we have the current GOP pollster and the former GOP pollster at significant odds over where this race is right now. The current GOP pollster (Strategic Vision) has this race at six points (48-42), an outcome that no one else has had for months. The former GOP pollster (Rasmussen) has Stabenow ahead by a comfortable margin (55-39).
MN-GOV: Hatch (D) 45%, Pawlenty (R) 44% [Neutral]
The trend, a narrow Hatch lead, continues to be confirmed, although Pawlenty is a point or two closer than the recent averages (not enough to call it momentum). Independent candidates take up another 9% of the vote, according to this poll by SurveyUSA.
MN-SEN: Klobuchar (D) 55%, Kennedy (R) 39% [Dems]
This SurveyUSA poll gives Klobuchar the biggest lead I have seen in the race, save for the Minneapolis Star-Tribune poll, which Minnesota GOPers say is hopelessly biased to the left (there is some empirical evidence to suggest that it tends to miss in favor of Democrats more often than it does in favor of the GOP). Klobuchar seems unbeatable at this stage. Is the NRSC still playing here, by the way?
MO-SEN: (2 polls) McCaskill (D) 45.5%, Sen. Talent (R) 45.5% [GOP]
The tossup continues to be a tossup: Mason Dixon has the race at a three-point edge for McCaskill (46-43), while SurveyUSA has the race at a three-point edge for Talent (48-45). Here is my concern, and what I want to hear some feedback on. I am alarmed by something in the internals of the SUSA poll (go to their website for the lowdown). Apparently, on their first day of polling, McCaskill led by one. Talent took the lead on Sunday (the day after the Michael J. Fox ad aired), and expanded it on Monday (he led by seven points in Monday's sample). Could this ad be actually blowing back in the face of the Democrats? I saw the ad, and I thought it was powerful. But the numbers do not tell us good news here (the Mason-Dixon poll was before the ad aired). I want to see some type of polling here to either refute SUSA, or confirm my worst fears here.
MT-SEN: Tester (D) 46%, Sen. Burns (R) 43% [GOP]
I don't want to sound the panic alarm here, but this Mason-Dixon poll shows that this race is getting really close to being a tossup again. Whether this is Burns' incessant "liberal" attacks starting to take hold, or just the natural tightening of a race in a red state, I don't know. But we know have two polls in less than a week showing the Tester lead cut in approximately half. The last time Mason-Dixon polled here, Tester led by six.
NV-02: Heller (R) 40%, Derby (D) 40% [Dems]
CAVEAT--This is a Democratic poll, taken for the Derby campaign by Mellman Group. This poll, despite being an internal poll, is significant because it is the first poll to not have Heller clearly in the lead of this race. Mason-Dixon polled this about a month ago (and gave Heller a three-point edge). I'd love to see them in here again to confirm Mellman's numbers. This is a race that few expected the Democrats to pick up.
NJ-SEN: Sen. Menendez (D) 45%, Kean (R) 42% [GOP]
I was really hoping this Mason-Dixon poll would confirm the high single-digit numbers that we saw from Gannett last week. Instead, it has no change in the numbers since the last M-D poll blitz at the beginning of the month. Whether this is to be expected, or is cause for real alarm, can be debated (and hopefully will be in the comments section).
NY-03: Rep. King (R) 55%, Mejias (D) 32% [GOP]
CAVEAT--This is a Republican poll, taken for the King campaign by McLaughlin and Associates. I have the same response to this internal that I did from the internal poll from the DCCC on the Boswell race in IA-03 yesterday. I do not doubt that the incumbent (in this case, King) is leading. I have grave doubts that the margin is over 20 points. This race is screaming out for more independent polling.
OH-GOV: Strickland (D) 54%, Blackwell (R) 34% [Dems]
Honestly, this is pretty close to neutral momentum, but the last couple of polls here have been in the teens, and this one has it out at 20 points. This Mason-Dixon poll confirms that the wild charges being swung at the end of this campaign by Blackwell and his friends in the Ohio GOP are not connecting.
OH-SEN: Brown (D) 48%, Sen. DeWine (R) 40% [Dems]
This Mason-Dixon poll tells me that Republicans have to be pretty close to cutting the cord in Ohio. DeWine's best polling in the past two weeks has had him losing (though not by a lot). This latest poll is a seven-point bump for Sherrod Brown since the last Mason-Dixon poll here at the beginning of the month.
OK-GOV: Gov. Henry (D) 64%, Istook (R) 32% [Dems]
I really cannot believe that this race is this big a blowout, especially in "so red it elected Tom Coburn to the Senate" Oklahoma. Ernest Istook gave up a House seat to get beat 2-to-1, according to this SurveyUSA poll.
PA-GOV: Gov. Rendell (D) 56%, Swann (R) 35% [Neutral]
This Mason-Dixon poll confirms a trend set by both partisan and nonpartisan polling for well over a month--Rendell has a lead that (at a minimum) is about 15 points. At this point, it is not out of the realm of possibility to suggest that he will be elected with more than 60% of the vote.
PA-SEN: Casey (D) 51%, Sen. Santorum (R) 39% [Dems]
After yesterday's Strategic Vision poll suggested a tightening in this race (Santorum Boomlet #39, we presume??!!), here comes Mason-Dixon to splash cold water on that notion, as they show Casey with a safe lead of about a dozen points. Santorum can't seem to break 42% in any poll.
RI-GOV: (2 polls) Gov. Carcieri (R) 50%, Fogarty (D) 41.5% [Neutral]
This race seems to have really stabilized over the last two weeks. Said stability is bad news for the challenger, as the incumbent Republican Don Carcieri seems to have survived a brief Democratic surge, and is now back close to the 50% threshold of incumbent safety. Rasmussen had the race closer (51-44) than did Mason-Dixon (49-39), although both yield essentially similar results.
RI-SEN: (2 polls) Whitehouse (D) 50%, Sen. Chafee (R) 43.5% [Dems]
The Senate race in Little Rhody is starting to separate again, after some polls last week had it back down to under five points. Mason Dixon has the race at five points (48-43), while Rasmussen has the race at a slightly wider edge (52-44).
SC-GOV: Gov. Sanford (R) 57%, Moore (D) 34% [GOP]
Alrighty then, I think by this point it should be clear to all that last month's SUSA poll that had this race at 4 points was a classic example of an outlier. While I think this might be at the upper end of the Sanford lead, I have no doubt at this point that this race will be, at best, marginally competitive on Election Day.
TN-GOV: Bredesen (D) 62%, Bryson (R) 27% [Neutral]
This race has not tightened at all, and one has to presume that whatever campaign Bryson is putting together must be on the air by this point. Bredesen has only 9% disapproval in this new poll from Mason-Dixon. He might be needed to resurrect the momentum in the Senate race, because, as you'll see, the next polls are not good news for Democrats.
TN-SEN: (2 Polls) Corker (R) 47%, Ford (D) 45% [GOP]
New polling data from both Mason-Dixon and Rasmussen confirm that the Tennessee Senate race is beginning to tilt ever so slightly back in the direction of the Republican here. While the Mason-Dixon poll (45-43) was taken before the press conference confrontation, I believe the Rasmussen poll (49-47) was not.
TX-GOV: Gov. Perry (R) 36%, Bell (D) 26%, Strayhorn (I) 19%, Friedman (I) 14% [Dems]
These new numbers from SurveyUSA seem to indicate a late surge for Democratic Chris Bell, but with the field still spread so thin, it is hard to see where he will find the final 10% to take the victory away from the Republican incumbent. It would require either Friedman or Strayhorn to completely implode in the next 13 days.
TX-04: Rep. Hall (R) 49%, Melancon (D) 41% [Dems]
CAVEAT: This is a Democratic poll, taken for the Melancon campaign by Bigelow and Lowery. I have a few qualms with this poll, even though its methodology appears to be sound. For one thing, it appears to be done by a pair of local college professors, and not by a group that specializes in public opinion polling. For another, it is SO far removed from the kind of result we would expect to see in the Texas-4th, where Hall won his last time out with 68% of the vote. Either this poll is off, or this is really going to be a historic year.
WA-SEN: (2 Polls) Sen. Cantwell (D) 52%, McGavick (R) 35.5% [Dems]
A pair of polls today, one by the Elway Poll and one by Mason-Dixon, show a definitive trend in favor of the incumbent two weeks out. Most polls in the last few weeks have had the race hovering around the ten-point mark. But Elway (52-34) and Mason Dixon (52-37) show a major movement in Cantwell's direction. It is also telling that the NRSC has apparently abandoned the race, as well.