We want to help, but have limited funds - which campaigns would benefit most from smaller, last-minute contributions? Focusing on House races, where contributions will have a greater impact at this point, I am looking for races that: 1) Are potentially competitive, maybe surprises at this late point in the campaign season; 2) Are not getting the support they need from the national party; 3) Are these districts in media markets where a little more money will mean the candidates will be better able to get their message out;
The 8 races I have come up with after the JUMP:
1) Victoria Wulsin (OH-2): One would think that after Mean Jean Schmidt's misguided tirade against Jack Murtha last Fall, this seat would have been a DCCC target, but when Paul Hackett didn't run for this seat, the national party lost its interest. While this race shares the media market with the Cranley-Chabot race (OH-1), and the DCCC has supported Cranley from the beginning, they have not done much for Dr. Wulsin. She has a great ad that she is trying to air as much as possible and polls show her within striking distance. The leaked RNC memo that Chris Bowers posted early this week has the GOP believing this race is a toss-up.
2) Larry Grant (ID-1): All Larry has to do is to show the statements of Republican elected officials about his opponent, Bill Sali, to make this race competitive in a very Red state. But as a bonus, Larry has a great resume and is running a well-balanced, thoughtful campaign. Republicans for Grant has become an essential part of the campaign. The last poll I saw had Grant ahead but over 60% undecided, but the GOP must be nervous as they are pouring hundreds of thousands into a seat that should normally be a sure-thing.
3) Eric Massa (NY-29): Eric wiped the floor with Randy Kuhl in a series of debates over the past 3 weeks. His integrity, energy and engaging personality shine through when you meet Eric, and his experience in the Navy and with Wesley Clark in Europe for NATO is well-suited for these times. This district used to be represented by the moderate Republican Amo Houghton until he retired two years ago, but Randy Kuhl is no moderate. If he gets the support, Eric should be able to ride the NY Democratic wave into office.
4) Tessa Hafen (NV-3): Going up against incumbent Jon Porter is no easy task, but Tessa Hafen has made a race of it. The latest poll has Hafen down just 2 points, 43-41, and Charlie Cook now rates the seat a toss-up. This former Harry Reid aide is running a smart campaign, and despite the fact that Porter has called her a "carpet-bagger," Tessa is a 3rd generation Nevadan. The district is large, including Reno and Carson City. But many of the media markets in this wide swath are small and cheap, meaning every contribution to her will have an impact.
5) Lois Herr (PA-16): This one is way off the map in that it isn't even on Charlie Cook's list of competitive seats as most of the attention in Pennsylvania has gone to the Philly-area seats in a very expensive media market. But, incumbent Joe Pitts is a terrible campaigner, and Lois Herr, having already run in 2004, has name recognition. She also wiped the floor with Pitts in their debates. Plus there is the fact that this is one of the cheapest media markets on the East Coast, with one major television station and an ad on Oprah costing just a couple hundred bucks. This is definitely a case of where a little money will go a long way.
6) Ellen Simon (AZ-01): Representative Rick Renzi has just made news this week with reports of legal investigations into some of his land deals. But what may not be as well known is that Ellen Simon has been running a competitive campaign even before Renzi's questionable dealings became news. The Majority Watch poll had her up 50%-46% earlier this month. This is also a district similar to the NV-1 seat in that it is large and generally cheap in terms of media buys. Helping Ellen drive her campaign home would definitely be a wise investment at this point.
7) Tim Walz (MN-1): This Army National Guard veteran and High School coach and teacher just got the endorsement of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune over incumbent Gil Gutknecht, who the paper had endorsed two years ago. In a seat that also was thought to be safe GOP. Tim has accomplished all this by raising under $1 million, so you know that his campaign uses its funds wisely.
8) Peter Goldmark (WA-5): With Larry Grant's surprise race bordering this district's eastern border, and Darcy Burner's insurgent campaign on its western border, there appear to be effects on this district. Peter, a molecular biologist who has specialized in agricultural research, has seen his fortunes rise, resulting in RNC expenditures for Freshman incumbent Cathy McMorris. This is a huge district taking up Spokane and most of Western Washington. Peter was down just 8 points, 45% to 38% in a poll early in October. Again, a cheap district to play in for a smart, thoughtful candidate.
So that is my analysis as to where last minute contributions would help the most.
Any thoughts? Any other suggestions? Please use similar criteria if you do offer other candidates.
Corss posted at my own blog: http://bluecatapult.blogspot.com/
And on MyDD:
http://www.mydd.com/...