Another big polling day in the individual races, amid the total silence of national polling that continues into its second full day. Lest anyone spin into conspiracy theories, it is helpful to remember that there were five or six polls released Monday, although CBS and NBC remain conspicuously absent this week.
Meanwhile, across the threshold you will find new numbers in 28 individual races. For those who are following the momentum, today's polling numbers break down as such: Democrats have improved polling results in twelve of these races, Republicans improve in four races, and twelve of them retain neutral (2.5 points or less) momentum.
With that, let's look at the numbers....
INDIVIDUAL RACES
AK-GOV: (2 polls) Knowles (D) 43%, Palin (R) 42.5% [Dems]
Kos already frontpaged this, but this is a pretty big development. A lot of pundits took the Alaska gubernatorial race off their radar the second Frank Murkowski got beat. Apparently, the GOP brand name is even tarnished on the Last Frontier, as Knowles has come flying back after Palin's post-primary high, and pulled this race even. Now, everyone will be watching this one.
AZ-GOV: Gov. Napolitano (D) 67%, Munsil (R) 24% [Dems]
Wow, this is descending into total rout territory a little faster (and with more ferocity) than I thought. I thought the Republican base in Arizona was worth more than 24% of the vote, for crying out loud. This new poll by Arizona State makes me wonder if there is a sample skew here. I'd buy a 60-35 poll, but 67-24. Arizona Kossacks, please check in...convince me this one is not full of s**t.
AZ-SEN: Sen. Kyl (R) 47%, Pederson (D) 41% [Dems]
The reason I hope the gubernatorial poll is legit is that it would keep me from casting doubts on this poll. Although, in fairness to the fine folks doing the polling at Arizona State, this is only marginally more optimistic than some of the polls that I have seen in this race. Could this be the late-breaking surprise that upsets the entire balance of power in the Senate? If so, the pundits look brilliant: they have kept this race on the target list long after the polls here seemed hopeless.
AR-GOV: Beebe (D) 52%, Hutchinson (R) 39% [Dems]
After a couple of polls seemed to indicate a slight narrowing of this race, a new poll out today by Constituent Dynamics puts Beebe at a 13-point edge. With four percent of the vote going to independent candidates, Hutchinson needs not only the undecideds to break his way, but he has to erode about 10% of Beebe's current support to win. Not impossible, but quite a mountain to climb with 13 days left.
FL-GOV: Crist (R) 51%, Davis (D) 42% [Neutral]
In this race, given that the pollster is the Republican outfit Strategic Vision, neutral momentum is good news for the Democrats. SV tends to overstate Republican performance (see the comments in yesterday's FTP for some examples I dug up), and so this race is almost certainly in the mid-single digits at this point.
FL-SEN: (2 polls) Sen. Nelson (D) 61%, Harris 32% [Dems]
Wow. If these polls from Strategic Vision and Quinnipiac are legit, this is another race heading into pure-drubbing territory. Not surprisingly, the GOP pollster has it tighter (58-35), while Quinnipiac almost defies belief with their numbers (64-29). This is one of those rare times where I think I buy the GOP pollster more than the nonpartisan pollster. I know Katherine Harris is kinda, sorta, really reviled, but 35 POINTS??!!??
FL-13: Jennings (D) 52%, Buchanan (R) 41% [Dems]
CAVEAT--This is a Democratic poll, done for the Jennings campaign by Hamilton and Beattie. The lack of polling leaks from Buchanan since the primary is interesting. Recently, when asked about it, a Buchanan spokesperson said "we don't release our internal data." Except they did--when it showed them winning the GOP primary. Telling.
FL-24: Rep. Feeney (R) 45%, Curtis (D) 43% [Dems]
CAVEAT--This is a Democratic poll, done for the internet group velvetrevolution.us by Zogby. Wow...I'd love to believe this one, because Feeney is one of the most partisan members of a very partisan House, and I think a lot of his attacks on Curtis are distasteful. That said, I just don't see this as a two-point race. Feeney waxed Harry Jacobs by 20 points, and Jacobs spent more in a week that Curtis has on his entire campaign. Could the free media Feeney gave to Curtis by badmouthing him actually be boomeranging against him?
GA-GOV: (2 polls) Gov. Perdue (R) 50.5%, Taylor (D) 31.5% [GOP]
Insider Advantage is starting to show some creepage in the direction of the incumbent, as the lead has gone from 16 points to 19 points (50-31-8) in three days. Meanwhile, GOP outfit Strategic Vision also polls here today, and they also have Perdue staked to a 19-point lead (51-32-9).
ID-GOV: Brady (D) 42%, Otter (R) 40% [Dems]
CAVEAT--This is a Democratic poll, conducted for the Brady campaign by Goodwin Simon and Victoria Research. Last week, Chuck Todd of the National Journal upgraded this race, saying that there were reports that Brady was surging. Uh...yep, I guess he was right. It will still be the upset of the century if Brady wins, but he is obviously closer than the respectable 56-42 defeat he suffered in 2002 against incumbent Dirk Kempthorne.
MD-SEN: Cardin (D) 46.5%, Steele (R) 39.5% [Neutral]
CAVEAT(S)--This is an amalgamation of a Republican poll, conducted for the NRSC by Voter/Consumer Research, and a Democratic poll, conducted for the DSCC by Garin Hart and Yang. Here is a little behind the scenes for you--my original commentary on this race was about how nervous I was that the GOP kept releasing internals showing the race close (Cardin 41-39 in this one), while there was no countering Dem internals. In the time it took me to buy groceries and go home, there was a DSCC internal showing Cardin well ahead (52-40). I'll see your internal numbers and raise you, I suppose. Cardin still leads, for sure, and probably by mid-single digits.
MA-GOV: Patrick (D) 53%, Healey (R) 26% [Dems]
If yesterday's 1-2 punch from SurveyUSA and Rasmussen did not diminish GOP dreams in the Bay State, today's poll from Suffolk University is a real depressant. It was Suffolk, after all, that gave the Healey campaign a cruel measure of false hope with their 13-point poll last week. In one week, Patrick's lead has doubled. I guess there is such a thing as overkill when it comes to negative campaigning.
MA-SEN: Sen. Kennedy (D) 60%, Chase (R) 26% [Dems]
This is the first Fall poll of the Senate race (yes, there is one here). A late summer poll was cause for at least mild concern in the Kennedy camp--as it showed Kennedy only leading "The Republican Nominee" (which had yet to be determined) by a 49-42 margin. The Fall climate change towards the Democrats, as well as an energetic but lightly funded opponent, have moved Kennedy to a solid advantage.
MI-GOV: (2 polls) Gov. Granholm (D) 51%, DeVos (R) 42.5% [Neutral]
A day after Rasmussen had this race finally breaking into the double-digits for Granholm, SurveyUSA comes in today and pulls the lead back down into the single digits again (52-45). Research 2000, meanwhile, splits the difference and calls the race at exactly ten points (50-40). With Granholm now at or over 50% in the last three polls, picking off undecideds will no longer do. He is going to have to eat into Granholm's vote to win, period.
MI-SEN: (3 polls) Sen. Stabenow (D) 52%, Bouchard (R) 40% [Neutral]
A tightening of the race is evident from three polls taken today. An independent poll from SurveyUSA has the race at a seven point Stabenow lead (51-44), while a DSCC poll conducted by Lake and Partners has Stabenow leading easily (53-35). Again, the folks at Research2000 split the difference (52-41) The amalgamation is reasonably close to the 10-15 point lead previous polls have employed.
MN-06: Bachmann (R) 49%, Wetterling (D) 43% [GOP]
SurveyUSA brings what must be considered disappointing numbers for Minnesota Democrats, as they have Bachmann retaking the lead in this vital toss-up district. All recent polling had seemed to indicate a break in the race in Wetterling's direction. With Binkowski at 5%, Bachmann can win as long as she holds onto 48% of the vote.
MO-SEN: Sen. Talent (R) 48%, McCaskill (D) 45% [GOP]
This LA Times/Bloomberg poll is the second poll in a row to confirm a bit of a shift in this race. While this race is almost certainly still a toss-up, it has gone from a toss-up where the challenger has a small lead to a toss-up where the incumbent seems to have a small lead. Perhaps the Limbaugh outrage will cause some voters to be repelled by his ally, Talent, who would have been wise to denounce the Limbaugh comments.
NJ-SEN: Sen. Menendez (D) 45%, Kean (R) 41% [Neutral]
The Menendez lead, as evidenced here by the LA Times/Bloomberg poll, is not an overpowering one, but is a consistent one. Other commenters on the diary have postulated that New Jersey polling tends to underestimate Democratic performance a bit. If this is true, then you have to consider Menendez to be a narrow favorite for election.
NY-25: Rep. Walsh (R) 44%, Maffei (D) 40% [GOP]
A couple of provisos with this one--1) This is the recalibration of a Zogby poll that was pulled immediately after its release because it was weighted using the demographics of the wrong CD. The recalibration was done by the Maffei campaign, but the math seemed right to me, so I elected to include it. 2) The GOP momentum indicator is based on the previous poll in this district, which was a lead for Maffei according to Majority Watch. I, then as now, have serious doubts about the accuracy of MW's numbers, particularly in New York. However, the NRCC is now playing in this district, so it must be closer than previously thought.
OH-SEN: Brown (D) 47%, Sen. DeWine (R) 39% [Neutral]
This LA Times/Bloomberg poll confirms what every public poll here has shown all month--Brown has a solid, but not overwhelming, lead. That said, it is going to be a lot harder for DeWine to win over 75% of the undecideds than it will be for Brown to win 25% of them. This is still in the books are an overwhelmingly likely pickup for the Democrats.
OR-GOV: Gov. Kulongoski (D) 47%, Saxton (R) 36% [Dems]
With Granholm, Baldacci, and Culver all moving into small, but stable leads, this new poll by Riley Research confirms that there is not a single Democratic governor who is an underdog going into the final thirteen days. Vital note--this is the same pollster that had Saxton leading late last month. Clearly, Oregon Democrats are coming home, and Kulongoski is not as endangered as he was two weeks ago.
PA-04: (2 polls) Rep. Hart (R) 48%, Altmire (D) 40% [Neutral]
This is the combination of an independent poll for the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review (which has Hart leading 46-42) and a Republican poll by Public Opinion Strategies (which has Hart leading 50-38). This race, which had long been relegated to the third tier of the House races, is showing first-tier competitiveness.
PA-06: Murphy (D) 47%, Rep. Gerlach (R) 44% [Neutral]
CAVEAT--This is a Democratic poll, taken for the Murphy campaign by Garin-Hart-Yang. Again, I am not sure why the heck Murphy, who the C.W. says is ahead in this race, feels the need to leak an internal where she is barely ahead of Gerlach. One of the weirdest phenomena developing late in this cycle is that there are third and fourth tier races which seem to be AS competitive as the races that everyone has been talking about for a year.
PA-10: Carney (D) 50%, Sherwood (R) 38% [Neutral]
This poll, which comes to us from Franklin and Marshall College, is yet another independent poll showing Democrat Chris Carney with a considerable edge over scandal-tarred incumbent Don Sherwood. Apparently, mea culpa ads, spousal intervention, and presidential visits are not giving Sherwood any room to breathe. To me, this is a bigger statement than yesterday's internal poll showing Carney up 52-37. We expect a 5-10 point edge for the sponsoring candidate in an internal poll. We do not expect challengers to lead by a dozen points in a nonpartisan survey.
TN-GOV: Gov. Bredesen (D) 66%, Bryson (R) 29% [Neutral]
A slight bump for Bredesen, but not enough to call it a Democratic momentum shift. Then again, do you need to have a momentum shift when you are already leading by 37%?? My guess is that Bredesen will now turn his attention to using his considerable popularity on behalf of Harold Ford Jr.
TN-SEN: Corker (R) 48.5%, Ford (D) 46% [Neutral]
This LA Times/Bloomberg poll, taken over the weekend, showed the continued slippage of the Democratic candidate in this race (Corker led 49-44 in the LAT/B poll). However, all the recent polls showing Corker pulling into a lead were taken before the controversy over the race-baiting RNC advertisement in this race broke out. A new SurveyUSA poll, conducted over the last three days, shows the race dead even (48-48). For those trying to read tea leaves based on the ad controversy...well, you can't. SurveyUSA tells us that the day-to-day breakdown was dead even for each of the three days of the polling cycle.
TX-GOV: Gov. Perry (R) 36%, Bell (D) 25%, Strayhorn (I) 22%, Friedman (I) 12% [Neutral]
A day after SurveyUSA showed this race beginning to establish a coherent order, we get a confirming poll by Rasmussen. If nothing else, the finishing order is clearer than it has ever been: Perry, Bell, Strayhorn, and then Friedman falling increasingly farther behind. One has to wonder about the GOTV operations of independent candidates, who lack party apparatus and interest group support. My guess is that this will rapidly develop into a two-man affair.
VA-SEN: (2 polls) Webb (D) 46.5%, Sen. Allen (R) 46.5% [Dems]
This LA Times/Bloomberg poll is significant, because it is the first poll in the entire cycle to give Jim Webb a lead, albeit a statistically significant lead (47-44). SurveyUSA polls here again, and while their numbers are narrower than last month, they still give Allen a three-point edge (49-46). With Tennessee and Missouri looking less optimistic than they have in over a month, it is imperative for Democrats to make a run at states that seem to be breaking in their direction. Arizona would apply in this equation. And so would Virginia.
And...that closes the books on the Wednesday Edition of the FTP. The key word from today's round of polling seems to be stability, as nearly half of the polls show no discernable momentum shift. Stability when you are trying to come back from the political dead is not good news, which is why the NRSC and NRCC cannot exactly be buoyant at this point. That said, 12 days is a lifetime in...oh, screw it. Never mind.
As always, I'll be back tomorrow to crunch the numbers anew...and as always, rec it if you liked it!