The
Jackson-Hole News & Guide has an excellent piece, titled "Dem's Effort Gaining Steam," on the status of the
Trauner campaign. Everyone, by now, has heard about
Rep. Barbara Cubin's outrageous post-debate comment Sunday night to her MS-disabled, Libertarian opponent, Thomas Rankin: "If you weren't sitting in that chair, I'd slap you across the face."
But how will that, and Freudenthal's apparently pending endorsement, affect the race? Some insights across the fold.
First of all, it's very interesting to track this Cubin story. The Casper Star-Tribune has been reposting its original story apparently. When you use the google news, you see the link above having been posted 3 hours ago. I'm not sure if that has something to do with the Star-Tribune's annoying habit of changing links or not, but I find it interesting.
But this article in the Jackson Hole newspaper -- which, incidentally, would be considered Trauner's hometown paper -- has an excellent overview and analysis of the race. Go read it in full, if WY-AL is a race of interest to you.
But here are some excerpts:
A Wyoming political analyst says Wilson resident and Democrat Gary Trauner is the candidate with momentum in the race to represent Wyoming in the U.S. House of Representatives.
A series of events, including what backers called a strong showing in two televised debates, coupled with a gaffe by Republican opponent Barbara Cubin and an anticipated endorsement from Gov. Dave Freudenthal, have lifted Trauner's prospects, even though Cubin, the incumbent, remains the favorite, said Oliver Walter.
Walter is a poli sci professor at University of Wyoming and dean of the College of Arts and Sciences. We have a few respected political analysts and he is one. He goes on to say this is the WY Dems strongest chance since the 1970s at this race both because of the popularity of Freudenthal and Cubin's low approval level. (And, FWIW, Cubin was not expected to win the race in 1994 and was swept in by the Repub wave. Thus, it will be especially appropriate if the 2006 Dem wave takes her out.)
The article goes on to discuss the pending endorsement by Freudenthal. Lots of people have been wondering why Freudenthal waited so long but I, like others, think the endorsement will do more good coming, as it will, so close to the election. I doubt, however, that Freudenthal has a lot of coattails to share in independent Wyoming and Walter points out one of the conundrums that I have been pondering. Will it be harder for Repubs to vote for two Dems than one?
Walter said the governor's popularity could actually hurt Trauner "because Republicans are voting for a Democratic governor and may have a sense of guilt for jumping party lines" and won't jump those lines in the House race.
Nonetheless, I think the fact that neither Freudenthal nor Sen. Craig Thomas are involved in tight races will make it much easier for a lot of WY Repubs to simply stay home.
Walter then goes on to assess positively Trauner's debate appearances:
"Trauner is a very articulate candidate," Walter said. "He is the most articulate candidate the Democrats have had since Teno Roncalio in this position - certainly in terms of having his answers down and well rehearsed."
I was traveling and so got to see neither of the debates but I did hear the second streamed over the Internets and I thought Trauner did an outstanding job. Cubin was being hit from both sides and since she has never been able to string five words together without hemming and hawing, she was totally off-balance. It's not suprising that she blamed her post-debate meltdown on the "pressures of the race."
The article then goes into the meltdown, extending its news cycle and emphasizing the discrepancies between her Monday and Tuesday stories, which feeds into this:
"The principle situation where an incumbent loses is when there is something out of the ordinary," (Jim) King (another UW poli sci professor & noted state political analyst) said (in Sept 2006). "It would have to be something personal - a vote way out of line with the constituency, a scandal and that just isn't there to this point."
Walter said he was not sure Cubin's threat to slap Rankin would be that scandal.
"It certainly got wide press and this is the kind of thing that does people in, but who knows," he said. "It certainly doesn't do her any good."
My own theory is that this will shift a number of R votes to Rankin. He did a very credible job in the debate and the strong underlying libertarian streak is definitely alive. I believe a number of Repubs have given Cubin their vote in the past, hoping she'd have the grace to retire before they were asked to do it again. Each time she runs, she gets fewer and fewer votes as more and more people drop away. Earlier tonight, I suggested to the campaign that they need to do a subtle spot focused on RESPECT. Respect is a good Wyoming value and I think you could make a wonderful ad that wouldn't be heavy-handed (not what WY Dems need) but pointed, nonetheless.
Cubin's slap threat may have been the straw that finally removes enough of her reluctant, residual voters. And the great irony is that, had she retired, I think the Repubs would be looking at a Safe R seat here.
Go read the whole article and then go help Trauner! His cash on hand was tied with Cubin's on Sept. 30; don't let her buy her way back in.
Another tidbit: As I mentioned above, I was out of town during the debates so this may have been on kos but wanted to add that Trauner also mentioned during the debate that he received the endorsement of the Wyoming Tribune-Eagle (out of Cheyenne). To my knowledge, the Casper Star-Tribune endorsement is still to come. Not that either will have that much sway, just additional info.