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Given that we are now 11 days away from the Big Dance, and the likelihood that the data is going to increase, not dissipate, I have a fear that I am going to run out of synonyms for "big" in my diary titles.

Indeed, while today we are totally bereft of national polling, we do see new numbers in 35 individual races, which is a new record for the ole FTP diary series. Alas, most of the House polling is internal polls, so there has to be a modicum of guarded optimism with those polls.

The issue of internal polls actually became quite the debate in yesterday's comment section, so allow me to explain my semi-skepticism about them, as well as give you all the new numbers, after the jump.

INDIVIDUAL RACES

So...out of the 35 individual races polled today, we see a total of eight House races polled only FOR the campaigns, or "internal polls" as we call them. I always place a caveat when a poll is sponsored by the campaigns, and I always encourage caution to be exercised with regard to their results.

A few folks took some exception to that fact, so allow me to explain myself. Campaign polls are taken with a fair amount of frequency. When you only see one in a campaign, or one in a month, it is a fair bet that there are others that you are NOT seeing. When a campaign can select the data that it presents to the general public, it is fair to be a bit skeptical that the poll you are seeing is a "true representation" of the race.

For example: I am polling a House race, and in a month I poll five times. Here are the outcomes: In four polls, my candidate is down narrowly, let's say between 4-10 points. In one of the five polls, my candidate is up three points. Given the standard margin of error, as well as the day-to-day vagaries of public opinion, this is certainly possible. However, if the poll with the 3-point lead is the only one I release, it gives the false impression that my candidate was ahead all along...which of course, he/she wasn't.

Do I think you can automatically knock some points off the sponsoring candidate in an internal poll? I do.

Do I think it is getting to be particularly telling that the NRCC and the Republican candidates are keeping their internals largely under wraps? I do.

That thoroughly discussed, on with the countdown (ah! My Casey Kasem moment....)

AK-01: Rep. Young (R) 43%, Benson (D) 34% [Dems]
CAVEAT--This is a Democratic poll, taken for the Benson campaign by Hays Research. This comes on the heels of an independent poll by Craciun Research showing Young up 56-35, which is closer than he is accustomed to. I am not ready to say that Young is in the first-tier of the target list, but these back-to-back polls certainly have my attention.

AZ-08: Giffords (D) 48%, Graf (R) 38% [Neutral]
This public poll by Zimmerman and Associates, finds the race in essentially the same place that it was when Zogby polled here about four weeks ago. The McCain endorsement of Graf helps him a little, but 75% of voters say it will not factor into their voting decision.

CA-GOV: Gov. Schwarzenegger (R) 55%, Angelides (D) 37% [Neutral]
SurveyUSA confirms the 18-point Schwarzenegger lead that was also cited yesterday by PPIC. The good news: Angelides is finally on the air with a halfway decent ad ripping some of Schwarzenegger's missteps in his first term. The bad news: The great ad comes about ten weeks too late for Angelides. His campaign committed the cardinal sin, it seems: they allowed his opponent to define himself, and they also allowed him to define Angelides.

CA-SEN: Sen. Feinstein (D) 59%, Mountjoy (R) 33% [Dems]
Some (small) salvation for California Democrats, as Senator Dianne Feinstein pulls ahead to her biggest lead of the campaign. At a 26-point lead, over a financially overmatched opponent, I think it is safe to call this one very, very over.

CT-02: Courtney (D) 46%, Rep. Simmons (R) 42% [Dems]
CAVEAT--This is a Democratic poll, taken for the DCCC by Grove Insight. This is the first of several DCCC internals released today, all of them showing Democratic challengers in the lead. Something about this dump of polls all at once by the DCCC arouses some skepticism in me. That whole "too good to be true" thing, I guess. Don't mind me, though...I get very dark in the week before an election. I am Toby in the West Wing during the re-election episode, trust me.

FL-GOV: Crist (R) 52%, Davis (D) 41% [GOP]
If this brand-new Rasmussen poll is to be believed, then the momentum of the Davis comeback seems to have abated somewhat. Time is running out on the Democratic nominee--he needs a game winning drive, and the clock is ticking.

FL-22: (2 polls) Klein (D) 44.5%, Rep. Shaw (R) 42% [Dems]
SEMI-CAVEAT: One of these two polls (which has Klein leading 48-42) is a Democratic poll, taken for the DCCC by Anzalone Liszt. The other poll, however, is by independent pollsters Insider Advantage, and it finds Shaw clinging to a one-point lead, well below the 50% incumbent safety threshold (42-41). This is a race that I truly believe has tightened up. If you don't believe it, explain the curious choice by Shaw to run an ad where he references...of all people...Bill Clinton. Plus, the word "independent" comes up more often in his campaign stuff than his own name, I believe.

FL-25: Calderin (D) 37%, Rep. Diaz-Balart (R) 33% [Dems]
CAVEAT--This is a Democratic poll, taken for the Calderin campaign by PolitiCall. Additional caveat...there is no way in Hell I believe this polling result. First of all, I have never heard of the pollster (which, to me, is something of a red flag). Second, well, let's be honest, the result strains credibility. It is pretty doubtful that Calderin's $33K war chest (as of 9/30) allowed him to raise the kind of profile in a district of over 600,000 people to take down a sitting Congressman.

GA-GOV: Gov. Perdue (R) 51%, Taylor (D) 34% [Neutral]
Taylor reduces the margin slightly, in the new Insider Advantage tracking. If he can get it within 12 points, I'll say it is a race. The libertarian has slid from 9 to 7 points here.

ME-GOV: Gov. Baldacci (D) 42%, Woodcock (R) 25% [Dems]
The new polling from local firm Critical Insights confirms two trends, neither of which are good news for the Republican challenger. Trend #1--Baldacci pulling a lead outside of the margin of error. Trend #2--Third party candidates pulling away a significant part of the anti-incumbent vote (third-party candidates get 18% of the vote in this poll.

ME-SEN: Sen. Snowe (R) 74%, Hay-Bright (D) 14% [GOP]
The most popular Senator in America this month according to the SUSA 50-state tracking polls, Snowe pulls out to a 60-point lead, according to Critical Insights.

ME-01: Rep. Allen (D) 62%, Curley (R) 18% [Dems]
Tom Allen, who may have his sights on the upper chamber and a challenge to Susan Collins in 2008, is en route to a major league rout of Republican state rep. Darlene Curley, according to the Critical Insights poll.

ME-02: Michaud (D) 62%, D'Amboise (R) 25% [GOP]
Critical Insights also polls this House district, and finds it to be a runaway as well. Why the [GOP] momentum tag? Because, believe it or not, this outcome is actually CLOSER than the last poll here, which had Michaud up by nearly 50 points.

MA-GOV: Patrick (D) 54%, Healey (R) 29% [Neutral]
This Boston Globe poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire, confirms that the scorched-earth campaign that brought Kerry Healey back from the political dead has now outstayed its welcome. Patrick is a strong favorite to claim the Massachusetts governorship for the Democrats. It has been a long time since a Democrat ran the MA state house.

MA-SEN: Sen. Kennedy (D) 66%, Chase (R) 25% [Dems]
Breaking news: the sun rose in the East. Also, water sustains humankind. Oh, and Ted Kennedy is going to be re-elected easily in Massachusetts. All phenomena that NO ONE could have seen coming.....

MI-GOV: Gov. Granholm (D) 48%, DeVos (R) 43% [Neutral]
Not quite enough of a trend to call it DeVos momentum yet, but he is trickling back towards competitiveness, according to this EPIC/MRA poll. One thing in Granholm's favor--DeVos' personal approval numbers are very low for this late in the campaign. Then again, Granholm is struggling on this measure as well.

MI-SEN: Sen. Stabenow (D) 50%, Bouchard (R) 38% [Neutral]
I keep hearing whispers from various learned people that the Republicans are not saying "die" in this Senate race yet. They are convinced that the "off on the wrong track" angst that afflicts this state can be foisted on the Democratic Party here. This EPIC/MRA poll does not show much evidence of that, as Stabenow retains a double digit edge.

MN-GOV: Hatch (D) 45%, Gov. Pawlenty (R) 44% [Neutral]
This Rasmussen poll comes with an interesting internal dynamic. The high number of undecideds would seem to lend itself to a strong number for the Independence candidate, Hutchinson. If he fades before Election Day (as third party candidates tend to do: see Penny, Tim), who would that help. My guess is Hatch, as in this year, the Democratic brand name is in better smell with Independent voters than the GOP brand name.

MN-SEN: Klobuchar (D) 53%, Kennedy (R) 39% [Neutral]
So now even Rasmussen, who had long been the sole pollster to give the Kennedy campaign some semblance of life, has Klobuchar leading in the teens. Kennedy's failure to launch, to me, is one of the biggest surprises of 2006. From when he beat David Minge in 2000, I thought this guy was a major statewide player. The numbers simply have not been there. Any Minnesota Kossacks care to explain??

MT-SEN: Tester (D) 51%, Sen. Burns (R) 48% [Neutral]
Rasmussen comes back into the state for the third time in two weeks, and finds the result essentially unchanged since last week. The good news for Democrats--with or without leaners factored in, Tester is over 50% of the vote. Burns is not yet dead, but he is not in a good position to win this at the last.

NV-GOV: Gibbons (R) 47%, Titus (D) 41% [Dems]
This Research 2000 poll, even though it shows movement in the direction of Dina Titus, surprises me a little bit. Given the "woman trouble" that Gibbons had in the last two weeks, I think it is very troubling for Silver State Dems that Gibbons' numbers did not implode. A small caveat--this poll was taken largely before the immigration story hit in mid-week.

NY-20: Gillibrand (D) 43%, Rep. Sweeney (R) 40% [Dems]
CAVEAT--This is a Democratic poll, taken for the DCCC by Grove Insight. I cannot get a read on this race. Republican internals shows this as a landslide, Democratic internals have it close, or even a slight Gillibrand lead, and the few public polls are all over the freaking place.

OH-GOV: Strickland (D) 58%, Blackwell (R) 36% [GOP]
Please note: The [GOP] momentum tag only exists because this poll from Rasmussen is not as one-sided as the SUSA polls from yesterday. They still paint an incredibly bleak picture of life for the GOP in Ohio this year.

OH-SEN: Brown (D) 54%, Sen. DeWine (R) 43% [GOP]
See OH-GOV. If GOPers want to take solace in the fact that their incumbent senator is down 11 points, instead of 20 points, then I suppose that is their prerogative. It is starting to become evident why the RNC cancelled their buys here, and it had nothing to do with DeWine being fine on his own financially.

OH-01: Cranley (D) 49%, Rep. Chabot (R) 40% [Dems]
CAVEAT--This is a Democratic poll, conducted for the DCCC by Grove Insight. This is one internal poll that I tend to believe somewhat. The statewide polls make it clear that the GOP brand name in Ohio is in major disrepair, and it only seems logical that the taint would extend to the House level.

PA-07: Sestak (D) 50%, Rep. Weldon (R) 43% [Dems]
CAVEAT--This is a Democratic poll, conducted for the DCCC by Benenson Strategies Group. Again, this is one I tend to believe. It does not have Sestak ahead by an unreasonable margin, and this is a race that many concede is an uphill battle for the GOP.

PA-08: Rep. Fitzpatrick (R) 48%, Murphy (D) 39% [GOP]
This new poll from Franklin and Marshall is disappointing, and it is also why I take those internals with a grain of salt. The most recent poll here was a Murphy internal, and it had Murphy leading by five. Now here comes an independent poll showing Fitzpatrick, who has worked hard at triangulating himself in this race, with a nine-point edge over one of the Democrats' top recruits.

RI-GOV: Gov. Carcieri (R) 49%, Fogarty (D) 35% [GOP]
I am beginning to think that this Rhode Island College poll is telling us that there is a trade-off afoot. Moderate GOPers and Independents are voting for Carcieri, so that they feel less partisan when they vote against Chafee. I could be full of crap, but it is an interesting trend that as Whitehouse's lead grows, so does Carcieri's.

RI-SEN: Whitehouse (D) 43%, Sen. Chafee (R) 33% [Dems]
Another Democratic Senate candidate leading by double-digits. Another GOP incumbent in the 30s. I think four seats is starting to become the base-line minimum for Democrats in this cycle for the US Senate.

SC-GOV: Gov. Sanford (R) 58%, Moore (D) 31% [GOP]
This poll, conducted by Clemson University, confirms an earlier Rasmussen poll that showed this race beginning to get away from the Democrats. Lest we accuse Clemson of GOP bias, there is this to consider....

SC-05: Rep. Spratt (D) 61%, Norman (R) 28% [Dems]
I am not sure I buy a 33-point edge for the Democrats in this once heavily-targeted race. That said, Clemson has Spratt leading this one, and handily.

TX-SEN: Sen. Hutchison (R) 60%, Radnofsky (D) 34% [GOP]
As topsy-turvy as the governor's race is in the Great State, the Senate race is starting to become very stable. Which is not good news for Radnofsky, who has run a first-class campaign that probably deserved a better result. Hutchison is just politically bullet-proof in the state of Texas.

VT-GOV: Gov. Douglas (R) 51%, Parker (D) 41% [Dems]
At the last, it appears that former Democratic state chairman Scudder Parker is turning this contest into a real race. This is a gubernatorial race on NO ONE'S target list, and yet, here it is.

VT-AL: Welch (D) 51%, Rainville (R) 41% [Dems]
This has to be a pretty disappointing week for the GOP in terms of their "targeted races". Polls this week showed Bean, Marshall, and Spratt up by wide margins. And now, Martha Rainville, who has run a top-notch bid for office but had the misfortune of being a Republican in Vermont in a bad year for that combination, founds herself down ten points with less than two weeks to go. It's not over yet, but it is getting there.

WV-02: Rep. Capito (R) 47%, Callaghan (D) 43% [Dems]
CAVEAT--This is a Democratic poll, taken for the West Virginia Democratic Party by a pollster yet to be determined. This just got diaried before I set up today, but I wanted to throw these numbers out there. I had wondered why Callaghan was so low on the priority list. Capito was held to 57% by an unfunded opponent in Republican 2004. I know Callaghan has not been a fundraising machine, but he had a good third quarter (nearly $200K), and the district is amenable. Maybe this will get him some late-breaking assistance.

...And that will wrap it up for the Friday edition of FTP. I'd love to engage in some campaign talk with you all this afternoon...but "it has been one of those days", and I have to get out to a football game tonight. So...I'll catch your comments tomorrow. Have a good night....

Originally posted to Steve Singiser on Fri Oct 27, 2006 at 04:38 PM PDT.

Poll

Today's 'Holy S**t Poll' of the Day Is ____________.

4%12 votes
3%8 votes
8%23 votes
11%31 votes
4%11 votes
6%18 votes
15%40 votes
6%17 votes
12%33 votes
6%18 votes
5%15 votes
2%6 votes
12%34 votes

| 266 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tips, Comments, Recs, Love, Hate... (136+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sdf, IsraelHand, Yosef 52, Bill in Portland Maine, lipris, left of center, Dump Terry McAuliffe, espresso, Nina Katarina, RunawayRose, Emerson, Andrew C White, DCCyclone, bawbie, PhillyGal, 2lucky, malc19ken, Ahianne, exNYinTX, zeitshabba, Doctor Who, sardonyx, DemInGeorgia, Delilah, joynow, bronte17, DrKate, megs, SecondComing, chad, mxwing, retrograde, javelina, GreenCA, xtcian, Miss Blue, ryder92111, matt2525, dmsilev, high uintas, CocoaLove, mayan, AlphaGeek, campskunk, Chamonix, casperr, HeedTheMessenger, churchylafemme, jamfan, johnnygunn, tabbycat in tenn, lecsmith, RenaRF, 2dot, lulu57, TheJohnny, walkshills, ChiGirl88, Man Eegee, CanYouBeAngryAndStillDream, DrewDown, SteveK, jonathan94002, joanneleon, paige, Desert Rose, Pokerdad, Skaje, mvr, Ckntfld, MHB, blueyedace2, franziskaner, Cleveland Dem, ignorant bystander, PBen, Webster, clammyc, Simplify, SoCalLiberal, basquebob, juliesie, Turkana, looking italian, curtadams, dansk47, Ex Con, GreyHawk, SheriffBart, gkn, Lisa Lockwood, sbdenmon, deepsouthdoug, Red Bean, Detroit Mark, JanL, maryru, MadGeorgiaDem, Topaz7, Nightprowlkitty, emeraldmaiden, ActivistGuy, Ellicatt, Encriptical Envelopments, akasha, blueoasis, Alexandra Lynch, goodasgold, global citizen, Rachel in Vista, FireCrow, NearlyNormal, plf515, dirkster42, RantNRaven, Public Servant, Abraham Running For Congress When I Turn 25, bear83, BeninSC, Susan Something, dotsright, oscarsmom, gloriana, TruthOfAngels, DWG, sfRenter, drchelo, Uncle Cosmo, St Louis Woman, ca democrat, neontrace, gatordem, Last Best Chance, mrbubs, keikekaze, Eugenian

    Sorry, but you will all have to talk among yourselves tonight...I have to hit the road for a football game.

    I'll catch your comments either late tonight or tomorrow AM...have a good start to your weekends!!

    "It. Is. About. Winning."

    by Steve Singiser on Fri Oct 27, 2006 at 04:37:41 PM PDT

  •  Whitehouse/Chafee (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Cleveland Dem, dirkster42

    You have them wrong, Whitehouse is the dem, Chafee the Rethug

  •  Hey! You could branch out into other languages. (3+ / 0-)

    "Grandote"

    "Gigantesco"

    "Enorme"

    ... and so on.

    "...hope is not the equivalent of optimism. Its opposite is not pessimism but despair. So I'm always hopeful." William Sloane Coffin

    by mxwing on Fri Oct 27, 2006 at 04:41:44 PM PDT

  •  What is up (4+ / 0-)

    with the total lack of post-debate CT-SEN polls?  I haven't seen anything new on that front in a week!

  •  How Fox News of you (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    macmcd, auditor

    : )

  •  As ever.. (3+ / 0-)

    ..the diary I look forward to reading, after an afternoon of mining.  Excellent!

    In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act. - George Orwell

    by drchelo on Fri Oct 27, 2006 at 04:47:24 PM PDT

  •  Freqyuency of Internal Polls (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Ellicatt

    This is an excellent diary, but I think the idea of a campaign polling five times a month and only revealing the one poll that shows their candidate in a favorable light needs a large dose of skepticism (and yes I know it is only a hypothetical example). I have been involved in the Massa campaign in the NY 29th and I know for a fact that there have been exactly two internal polls for Massa and one independent poll over the past nine months. Polls are expensive and there are a lot of races out there where the people runing them feel that money could be better spent on advertising GOTV etc. Your example might be true of Senate races but I bet there are many many house races where it does not apply.

    "A republic, if you can keep it." Benjamin Franklin

    by herodotus on Fri Oct 27, 2006 at 04:55:22 PM PDT

  •  I'll give you the read on NY-20 (5+ / 0-)

    Sweeney leads by 6-8 pts, and Gillibrand will need a huge GOTV effort plus some coattails from Spitzer and Hillary to pull her over the line.

    Again, I tend to subtract 4-5 points from all these internals.  Except for the Calderin poll, which is totally bogus, all of these are close except for Sestak's race (Weldon's goose is cooked).

    CT-2 and FL-22 (which I had in Shaw's column before he inadvertenly revealed his position in his "I love the Big Dog" ad) are tossups.

    WV-2 will shock everyone. I called a Callaghan win here months ago based on the historical precedent of pro-labor, pro-gun, untainted Dems winning nearly 100% of the time.

    Cranley may well be ahead in OH-1.  Nobody's really paid attention to that race, even though it's been a serious fistfight for months.

  •  angelides campaign has been a disgrace... (9+ / 0-)

    That our progressive state may be about to vote a GOP muscleman clown into the Statehouse for reals this time is absurd.  But Angelides campaign is so completely inept they're just letting it happen.

    As you said, he hasn't defined himself, even introduced himself, to California.  Most folks can only assume he's Grey Davis's clone.

    Where's our good liberal hollywood movie star candidate?  That probably would've been the way to go.

    Any chance they've got an ace-in-the-hole, some way to turn this around?

    Power Corrupts -- Corrupt Mark Kirk in IL-10.

    by sfRenter on Fri Oct 27, 2006 at 05:00:29 PM PDT

    •  That's a pretty sad indictment. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Steve Singiser, sfRenter

      It seems like you guys are doomed to vote for Hollywood actors on both side of the ticket from here to eternity. No need to establish your positions. Who has more star power?

      Look at these people! They suck each other! They eat each other's saliva and dirt! -- Tsonga people of southern Africa on Europeans kissing.

      by upstate NY on Fri Oct 27, 2006 at 05:50:20 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  It's not as if the rest of the country is immune (4+ / 0-)

        Saint Ronnie did pretty well at the polls in a couple of national elections.

        "The people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders...Tell them they are being attacked and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism." Goering

        by Red Bean on Fri Oct 27, 2006 at 06:05:02 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  tell me about it... (3+ / 0-)

        but it souldn't be such a surprise.  Los Angeles, Hollywood, the film industry is an enormous driving factor for our nation-sized economy.  That scene produces tons of money and interest groups, etc., pushing influence into politics like anything else.

        and, really, these screen actors have poise, gravitas, a clear voice, excellent speaking skills, name and face recognition, and they can memorize lots of lines.  Their success and prestige gives them the money, power, and buit-in network which lends itself so well to modern politics.

        maybe if we did something radical like institute publicly-fincnced elections, could a real people-powerred candidate rise through the glitz and compete on behalf of the rest of us.  (But they'd still probably have to look good.)

        Oh wait!  we DO have such a fantastic option, it's called PROP-89: CLEAN ELECTIONS FOR CALIFORNIA.

        :0

        Power Corrupts -- Corrupt Mark Kirk in IL-10.

        by sfRenter on Fri Oct 27, 2006 at 06:27:38 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  I think it's a done deal already (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SecondComing, Steve Singiser

      I just hope and pray he doesn't drag everything else down. We've got lots of important propositions, a vital SoS race, and several key Congressional contests in which we could flip seats and oust some of the most vile Republicans.

      We're gonna have to do it all without any coattails, damn it.

      Gonna be a judgment, that's a fact. A righteous train rollin' down this track . . . -- Bruce Springsteen

      by saucy monkey on Fri Oct 27, 2006 at 05:50:54 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  one good sign... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Steve Singiser

        seems there are a good amount of activists traveling around the state to put their energies into key districts.  Perhaps the fact that the Angelides campaign is such a dud may be helping inspire folks to really focus on these campaigns which will help give ALL of us a Democratic Congress.

        Power Corrupts -- Corrupt Mark Kirk in IL-10.

        by sfRenter on Fri Oct 27, 2006 at 06:33:02 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Indeed (3+ / 0-)

      As a recently ex-but before that long time California resident, I've been talking about the CA-Dems charisma deficit on these boards since the pre-scoop days (bitter discussions of the recall and Bustamante's poor showing are one of my early dkos memories).

      To put it briefly:  they need to move past the Davises, Bustamantes, and Angelideses.  It doesn't need to be a Hollywood liberal (Barbara Boxer has done just fine, thank you very much) but it does need to be someone with a certain charisma.  Certainly Gavin Newsom sees himself in that position, and we'll see.  But it is a very, very sorry day when in The Year of the Democrat the CA Democratic Gov candidate is getting pummeled.

      Of course, I'm down here in FL right now where Davis hasn't put in the greatest showing either, but (1) you expect less here; and (2) at least he isn't as dead in the water as Angelides is.

      -- Stu

    •  Yeh, I think that it's too easy to take a shot at (3+ / 0-)

      Angelides.
      I agree that the campaign that he's run hasn't been good. However, he was completely out of money after that brutal primary. Not only was he out of money, but his negatives were high due to S. Westley's ripping him like a republican, for the entire primary. It was ugly.

      But, more importantly, Arnold has turned 180 degrees from where he wanted to go in order to lie his way into a 2nd term. And, he turned around thanks to the Democrats in Sacramento. They saw that they had Arnold over a barrel and pushed all of their pet projects. (Frankly, I'm not sure that I blame them either.) Apparently, most Californians don't care about Arnold's lack of principles, his lies, his inability to articulate a vision, or his corrupt behavior.
      I'm surprised by the GOP though. The CA GOP is a rabid group. They booed Pete Wilson not that many years ago, in his 2nd term! They have caved to Arnold without a note of protest. It's very surprising.

      So, given that, I think that Angelides goose was cooked before he began.

      I am confident that Arnold will flip back to being a hard-core conservative after the election. And, the 'I told you so' that is sitting in my mouth isn't going to make me feel any better.

      The GOP = The Treason Party

      by jonathan94002 on Fri Oct 27, 2006 at 06:36:48 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Maryland Senate (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Steve Singiser

    What the hell's going on in Maryland?  There are lots of rumblings that Steele's catching up to Cardin.  We cannot lose any seats or kiss the Senate good-bye, and New Jersey's a problem too.  Anyone seen a poll that justifies Charlie Cook's move of MD Senate to toss-up

    •  Oh there were two polls out yesterday (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      javelina, kbse matt, Steve Singiser

      The GOP poll has Steele trailing with 39% of the vote.  The other poll (I forget if it was Democratic or independent) has Steele at 40% with Cardin taking 52% of the vote (actually an increase).  Steele is not going anywhere with 40% of the vote.  I wish people would stop worrying about Maryland.  It's a smoke screen.  

    •  asdf (0+ / 0-)

      I think the move is due to the type of campaign that Steele is running and the demographics in Maryland. I don't quite agree with this race being a toss-up, though. It's still between Democratic Favored and Leans Dem in my eyes.

      Yes, Cardin isn't a rousing campaigner and has looked unprepared during some of the debates but I don't think Steele can win this with the GOP's ratings in the tank. If this were 2002, I'd say otherwise. Steele can say that he's an outsider or w/e but he's also got to sell what he's all about to MD voters. He hasn't really defined himself in the hopes that his personality and being a 'good guy' will win him the race. Voters want more substance than that, and Cardin (for all of his negatives) gives voters a comprehensive platform and legislative experience in getting things done in a bipartisan basis.

      'Everybody's born-again these days; if you're not born-again you're dead, you're out of touch, yours is a minority view, you lose.' Barthelme 'Nat.Sel.'

      by jorndorff on Fri Oct 27, 2006 at 06:41:18 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Go Cranley (3+ / 0-)

    I know it's an internal poll but I'd have to imagine that he has the lead.  9% leads are hard to fake.  Now as for Montana and Ohio, it's clearly showing that our challengers are above the 50% threshold.  They may turn out to be a little closer but I'd say these races are done.  

    As for the California Governor's race, may I just say "I TOLD YOU SO!"  Angelides is on track to break the Cruz Bustamante record (which was 32% of the vote).  For a Democrat to get under 40% in California is embarassing.  

  •  SC Governor (2+ / 0-)

    I watched the first gubernatorial debate on Wednesday night with a raucous group of about 200 Democrats. It wasn't the atmosphere, it was the debate. Tommy Moore kicked Sanford's ass. It isn't just my opinion, either. In blood-red Upstate South Carolina, a survey at the Greenville News shows Moore the debate winner 63-28%. You can check that for the latest updates by clicking on the link, above, and then by scrolling down to the "SURVEY: Who Was Better Prepared?" link. You have to "vote" to see the results, but that's okay. Be sure to click on Sen. Tommy Moore as your choice! ::wink::

    It was an awesome performance by Tommy Moore. He made terrific eye contact, he had great energy, he was prepared to the maximum, and most of all, he came to COMPETE!

    "The opposite of war isn't peace, it's CREATION." _ Jonathan Larson, RENT

    by BeninSC on Fri Oct 27, 2006 at 05:12:23 PM PDT

  •  I'm so appreciative of these diaries. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    javelina, Steve Singiser

    Thanks for doing this every day.

    Here's something to keep you going:

    immense, enormous, massive, gargantuan, mammoth, monumental, jumbo, king-size, super-size, humongous, ginormous

    Does that get us close to election day?

  •  Since I've been a nuisance asking about internals (8+ / 0-)

    and everything I thought I'd do a synonym search for you:

    ample, awash, barn door, brimming, bulky, bull*, burly, capacious, chock-full*, colossal, commodious, considerable, copious, crowded, enormous, extensive, fat, full, gigantic, heavy duty, heavyweight, hefty, huge, hulking, humungous, husky, immense, jumbo, king sized, mammoth, massive, monster*, mungo, oversize, packed, ponderous, prodigious, roomy, sizable, spacious, strapping, stuffed, substantial, super colossal*, thundering, vast, voluminous, walloping, whopper, whopping

    You can save your time for reading polls!

  •  Synonyms (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SecondComing, Steve Singiser

    Colossal, supercolossal, super-duper, stupendous, gargantuan, humongous, towering, hulking, vast, big-ass, and gross!  : )

    11 synonyms for 11 days!  And some of them, I expect, appropriate in more senses than one!

  •  Sniff (4+ / 0-)

    I love that FL-25 poll.  Oh please oh please fairy godmother make this one true.

    Freedom: void where inconvenienced by laws. Freedom not available in all states. Freedom available for a limited time only, while supplies last.

    by A Chicagoan in Naples on Fri Oct 27, 2006 at 05:25:26 PM PDT

    •  that poll is beyond bogus (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Steve Singiser

      It is a completely unknown pollster with a huge amount of undecideds (30%!!) and the best part:

      It was taken over 3 weeks ago!!!

      "Why don't newscasters cry when they read about people who die? At least they could be decent enough to put just a tear in their eye" - Jack Johnson

      by bawbie on Fri Oct 27, 2006 at 09:04:39 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  i doubt it's true. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Steve Singiser

      the cubans will leave the republican party when hell freezes over. remember, the watergate burglars were cuban. they really believed the best way to fight communism was to break into the national headquartersof the democratic party.

    •  Sorry, Naples.... (0+ / 0-)

      If Calderin had the kind of campaign where he had funding to build up a lot of name recognition, and to do a real media campaign, I MIGHT buy it.

      But...given that he had only raised $51K, I just don't see it.

      "It. Is. About. Winning."

      by Steve Singiser on Sat Oct 28, 2006 at 08:56:06 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  money (0+ / 0-)

        Steve,

        Not being here and not know much about the race, I do not think you have the credibilty to know what is going on in the race.  

        It has been hard for us to raise money, and that is why I was looking to the netroots to help.  

        We have true progressive candidate-- the youngest candidate in the country.  Like I said before, this is why us as Democrats continue to loose, beacuse we dont give each other enough credit.  

        Also, Calderin is half Cuban so thats helping us a lot.  Today we were out at the polls talking to voters-- lots voting for us,even Republicans.  Besides the poll is legit, he ran his, and isnt realising it and is stepping up his game, so one can only assume it shows the same as ours.

  •  I Want "Uber" (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Steve Singiser

    Where did "Uber" go?

  •  A couple of things. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Steve Singiser, Ellicatt

    I saw Rove answering some question about why he was so confident the Republicans would retain control of Congress part of his answer was that the Republicans were doing far more polls than the Democrats so he sees hundreds of polls each week blah, blah, blah.  How nice for him.  If those polls are so good why not let us see them?

    About the NV poll, using the additional information they give we can figure out that their polls partisan breakdown mirrors the partisan registration figures, 40% R, 40% D, and 20% I.  My guess is that Democrats in NV like those in the rest of the nation are more interested in voting this year than the Republicans.  Research 2000 needs a new polling model that reflects voter intensity.

    •  New Polling Model? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Steve Singiser

      I think that would be a mistake.  They can't assume voter intensity.  I think you are right that Dems are more motivated, but none of us will really know until election day.  FWIW I though Dems would be more motivated in 2004 than Repubs too, but that did not turn out to be the case.  Pollsters should just call it down the middle.  In the end if one side is more motivated, it will show up in the real polls.  I'd like to think that if a Dem can get within 5 points, we have a chance of winning based on turnout.  

      In Britain they admit to having royalty. In the United States we pretend we don't have any, and then we elect them president.

      by Asak on Sat Oct 28, 2006 at 12:57:25 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Any poll that is of likely (0+ / 0-)

        voters is an attempt to measure intensity; they just do it with a 0-1 bifurcation, instead of a more sensible weight.

        This is definitely an area that can be improved.

      •  If they don't want to try to mirror (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Steve Singiser

        the potential partisan breakdown of likely voters come November then they ought to just poll registered voters not likely voters and use the partisan breakdown of registered voters.  Mason-Dixon has done the same kind of thing in NV.  They poll what they call 'regular' voters, those who frequently vote in Nevada election.  The problem with these kind of determinations is that in unusual election years the polls can become much less accurate.  It is easy to see that this is an unusual election year so the polling company ought to make adjustments.

  •  I just want to say (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Miss Blue, juliesie, Steve Singiser

    I don't comment much, but I needed to say that you have been doing an awesome job, and I just wanted to show my appreciation.

    I used to be a Republican, until they lost their minds - Charles Barkley

  •  Remember the Italian factor in Rhode Island (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Steve Singiser

    That will explain the Gov. poll.

    Look at these people! They suck each other! They eat each other's saliva and dirt! -- Tsonga people of southern Africa on Europeans kissing.

    by upstate NY on Fri Oct 27, 2006 at 05:49:03 PM PDT

  •  Holy Crud: Chabot losing in OH-01 (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Miss Blue, auditor, Steve Singiser

    If that's accurate (I mean, I'd heard rumors and seen a couple of polls but hadn't taken them that seriously), then the Dem tsunami I've been calling for in Ohio for the past few months may be even better than expected.  I'm feeling more and more comfy that Ohioans will be going to the polls looking to vote a straight Dem ticket.  

    Still gotta GOTV and bring in the herd. I'm taking off work on M6 and T7 to do just that.  

    The November Tsudemi Approacheth

    by Public Servant on Fri Oct 27, 2006 at 05:57:35 PM PDT

  •  THANKS, STEVE (3+ / 0-)

    You RAWK!

    I apologize that my sig isn't funny, deep or inspiring. But, it is in italics.

    by Ex Con on Fri Oct 27, 2006 at 06:02:05 PM PDT

  •  Internal polls (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Steve Singiser

    Candidates take internal polls for any number of reasons, and only one of them is to pull a snow job. And they release them for any number of reasons. It's quite possible some of these internals are genuine -- the pollsters I know tell me the ratio of genuine internals to "dolled up" internals is at least 10:1. It's just too expensive to do one with the sole intention of faking people out. So a lot of these could well be real -- but the results were so good they had to release them. And the poster above is right: Most campaigns don't take more and 3 or 4 internals in a whole Fall campaign.

    Plus I wouldn't read much into a campaign "refusing" to release their own internals. I've been part of several campaigns that actually DID have a policy of not releasing internal polls, and it is even possible for a campaign to feel as though it's to their advantage not to release a good poll.

    Finally, internal polls -- the real ones -- are the best polls there are. The best pollsters, the most expensive, the best analysis. Rarely does a campaign get too fooled by what happens on Election Day.

  •  PA-08 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Steve Singiser

    As Atrios pointed out earlier, one reason Murphy may not look so good in this F&M poll is that they included a third candidate even though the third candidate withdrew from the race in August.

    Quoting Dr. Black:

    Why would there be a poll just out about the Murphy/Fitzpatrick race which included the name of a guy who withdrew from the race in August? Franklin and Marshall just polled a 3-way race which doesn't exist. Maybe we need a poller's ethics conference.

    So, to clear up some of Hotline's confusion - the reason why different polls are getting such different results is that one of those polls is polling about a named candidate who isn't on the ballot.

    Here's the question.

    Vote_CD. If the election for the US House of Representatives was being held today and the candidates were MICHAEL FITZPATRICK, the Republican, PATRICK MURPHY, the Democrat, AND TOM LINGENFELTER, the Independent candidate, would you vote for...

    47% MICHAEL FITZPATRICK

    38% PATRICK MURPHY

    3% TOM LINGENFELTER

    12% Do not know

    Murphy's been trending well in ever other poll I've seen. He's still got a tough battle, but this particular poll can be somewhat discounted.

    Why did they do this?  It is not clear.  But you name the guy, and, wallah, he gets 3%.  Not on the ballot, it's hard to believe he's gonna do that.  As Atrios says, doesn't mean Murphy doesn't have a tough road to hoe, but something to consider.

    -- Stu

    •  Lingenfelter, and the undecided crosstab (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Steve Singiser

      The pollster explained that Tom Lingenfelter, a perennial candidate running as both R and D in Bucks County, was listed on the Department of State Web site as submitting nominating petitions for an 8th district run.  However, he was running for Lieutenant Governor (in conjunction with Russ Diamond's "Clean Sweep" ticket), not the U.S. House.  Regardless, the pollster apparently didn't bother to check the official ballot, where Lingenfelter is not listed.

      (This is not the pollster's first major gaffe in this cycle.  In the last poll for PA-06, the sample from Montgomery County - Lois Murphy's support base - was underrepresented by 15 points based on turnout history.)

      In addition to the Lingenfelter screwup, the PA-08 poll overrepresented Republican voters by about four points, and slightly underrepresented the Philadlephia segment of the district (though it's a sliver of the overall district regardless).

      Given all of that, Murphy most likely got shortchanged in this poll, but only by a point or two at most.  

      The eye-grabber is the undecided crosstab - Murphy is getting hammered there (Fitzpatrick 53, Murphy 32, Lingenfelter 9).  This runs completely against the national trend, where generic D's are polling ahead of generic R's among indies by as much as 2:1.  But Fitzpatrick's lead makes sense here - he's been in political office in Bucks for over a decade, while Murphy is very new to the scene, and can be made to look rather green at times (like in the stomach-punch "Hardball" ad).  It's very questionable whether Murphy would pull a sizable majority of the support that went Lingenfelter's way in this poll.

      Another weird thing in this poll was the difference between voter registration and voter self-identification.  For the question of party registration, the split was 50R-40D-8I.  However, for the question of political identification ("how do you think of yourself"), the split was 46R-45D-4I.  Given this disconnect, it's hard to say how big an impact, if any, the Republican oversample had on the results.

      Murphy has run a good, creative campaign, especially for a relative novice.  But he's gonna need a big wave to carry him over the top.

      "In time you can turn these obsessions into careers."

      by looking italian on Fri Oct 27, 2006 at 07:14:57 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Regarding OH-Gov, (3+ / 0-)

    I honestly didn't hear about Blackwell's campaign worker having the criminal record until today.

    To quote The Big Lebowski,
    "What's a pederast, Walter?"
    "Shut the fuck up, Donny."

    I take back what I said a while back about everyone in Maurice Clarett's extended family having a criminal record and therefore his father (Blackwell's top aide) having one as I don't think it's true, but I do think AK47 Mo's brothers both have several felony drug convictions.

    Anyway, here's some more freeper spin for your enjoyment...enjoy...

    http://www.freerepublic.com/...

    http://www.freerepublic.com/...

    "Yeah. But I think once you become a Republican, your nuts shrink and you never score." -Butthead to Beavis

    by BlueEngineerInOhio on Fri Oct 27, 2006 at 07:23:22 PM PDT

  •  Another tidbit from Maine (3+ / 0-)

    The poll released yesterday also had this choice bit of commentary:

    The survey reflected little change in likely voters' rating of President Bush since a Critical Insights survey last spring. The latest results show unfavorable ratings by 59 percent, favorable by 24 percent and 17 percent undecided. The independent polling firm said Bush's support was highest among men, those with less education and 2nd Congressional District residents.

    I hope this puts to rest the notion that GW Bush has some kind of roots in Maine, just because his folks have a summer palace here. Made me feel a little better about those gruesome numbers in the Senate race.

  •  AZ 08 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SecondComing, Steve Singiser

    Gabrielle Giffords will turn a 22 year Republican held House seat (Kolbe retirement) into a Democratic one.  Here's a link to today's poll (48 Dem to 38 Rep)and article in the AZ Daily Star.

    Local dynamics revealed by the polls are:

    Kolbe, the retiring House member, refused to endorse Randy Graf, the Republican candidate.

    That didn't stop John McCain, who is unable to resist pandering to the right wing, from endorsing Graf in a television ad that is running non-stop.  

    However..................

    Sen. John McCain's endorsement of Graf is not influential to 75 percent of voters.

    and also in this state that borders Mexico:

    When voters were asked to rate the overall importance of a list of issues, immigration again finished on top in the September poll, with 82.3 percent rating it important or very important.

    and

    The Daily Star poll found that Graf has made some inroads with Republican voters but is still weak among those who "usually" vote Republican, as opposed to those who "almost always" vote Republican. Giffords has solid support among Democrats and leads Graf 2-to-1 in drawing third-party and independent voters.

    That's the frame of reference from Baja Arizona.

    If you tell the truth, you don't have to remember anything. --Mark Twain

    by Desert Rose on Fri Oct 27, 2006 at 07:48:49 PM PDT

  •  WV-02: Gotta love it (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    auditor, Steve Singiser

    Pollster for state party is GSG.

    Give money to Mike Callaghan at mikewv.com

    Politics is the art of the possible.

    by pinhickdrew on Fri Oct 27, 2006 at 07:54:48 PM PDT

  •  Spratt vs. Norman (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SecondComing, auditor, Steve Singiser

    Wealthy developer Ralph Norman collapsed when, after trying to go after Spratt over illegal immigration, it was revealed that his firm had made much of its money by hiring illegal immigrants to work construction.  Oops.

    I don't know if it's a 33 point spread, but I think Norman fell far, far behind.

    •  Wow...Had Not Read That One... (0+ / 0-)

      Curiously, a similar thing happened to Bob Corker, but he has been able to bounce back from that mother-of-all-gaffes.

      Well, I am happy, because here is another race the NRCC raised a lot of money for...money that is now officially in the crapper.

      "It. Is. About. Winning."

      by Steve Singiser on Sat Oct 28, 2006 at 09:14:09 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Link to donate to Callaghan in WV-02 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Steve Singiser

    Too late to play around with actblue. Gotta go straight to the campaign at campaign site.

    Besides, his ad is really good and stramed on site.

    Politics is the art of the possible.

    by pinhickdrew on Fri Oct 27, 2006 at 08:19:49 PM PDT

  •  I'm getting skeptic's fatigue (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Steve Singiser

    I mean, at a certain point I need and infusion of enthusiasm and energy to keep dialing and a predisposition that we are winning for my morale.

  •  FL-25 Calderin Poll HONEST (0+ / 0-)

    An earlier internal poll was conducted at the begining of July which showed the incumbant ahead 5 points.  We are not suprised by the change in the past three months.

    Also, this is not a district with 600K REGISTERED voters, this is a district that has 320K registered voters. Only 40 percent Republican, which is down seven points from just four years ago.  

    A lot of new people have moved into the district since that time.  Almost all of whom DO NOT know the incumbant because he has done very little and has very little exposure.  Even the two people living next door dont know who he is.

    His support of the Bush administration and all its failed policies have even caused some traditionally conservative republicans and independent voters to abandon him especially those in the Western part of the district who never wanted him there to begin with.  

    We heard him on Cuban radio two nights ago desperatly urging people to vote at least a dozen times in a twelve minute program.  He also said that "this is not a sure thing."  That combined with mailings recieved by many of our supporters only shows how vulnerable he even believes he is.  Hes only taken this campaign seriously after running his own poll just a few weeks ago.  

    Dont believe our numbers, ask him what his say.

    Democrats bickering with each other and not believing each other is what has kept us from controlling the House and Senate and allowing the Bush administration and his cronies to destroy our country.  I believe that it is only right to ask the campaign for more information before blasting our numbers.

    If any of you have questions, you can call me anytime at 305-498-8818 or 786-231-8111 or email manager@calderin2006.com

    Thank you

    Georgi Blumenthal
    Campaign Manager, Calderin for the Future

    •  Good To Hear From You, Mr. Blumenthal.... (0+ / 0-)

      Don't get us wrong here, it ain't as if we are pulling for Diaz-Balart around here.

      But the people who come to this diary are pretty knowledgeable, and the fact that the pollster was a company we had not heard of before raised an alarm bell, as did the high number of undecideds.

      Also, I was also surprised given that polling outfits often are very expensive, and it is very rare to see a campaign with 51K banked paying for polling.

      If true, it is great to hear. The GOP is putting the kitchen sink into a lot of these "tossup" races, and their all-in effort is going to salvage at least some of those races. The more races we win that nobody has on their radar, the better.

      Take care, and good luck!

      "It. Is. About. Winning."

      by Steve Singiser on Sat Oct 28, 2006 at 09:08:17 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I don't understand the Kay B Hutchinson lock (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Steve Singiser

    on Texas.  I loathe her and have loathed her from the very beginning.  What do the people in Texas see in her?  She has been in lockstep with Bush and it seems to me that Texans would be tired of anything that reminds them of GWB.  He is such an embarassment.

    •  IT'S Texas!! (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      macmcd, Steve Singiser

      That about says it all. I'm in Dallas and have not seen only one ad for Democrats. Kinky's all over the place. KBH just starting to run ads here. She's a known commodity in a state that's blood red.

      What I can't understand is why with her lead and name recognition recently said she would not have voted for the war had she known there were no WMD in Iraq.

      Why did she feel she had to admit this at this time?

      Dubya: often wrong, but never in doubt.

      by auapplemac on Sat Oct 28, 2006 at 12:11:07 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  It is good news that she is saying she wouldn't (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Steve Singiser

        have voted for the war if she'd known there were no WMD.  I think that means that EVEN Texas may be beginning to change.  I hope so anyway because we recently bought a house in my hometown and will be moving about 70 miles west of Dallas.  My husband retired and we are moving back to live near our grandchildren and my mother.  Being here in Texas off and on for the last couple of months, I am not sure I am going to be able to stand living in small town Texas again.  It is pretty unnerving to be around so many dysfunctional people.  And being kin to most of them.  '-)

  •  MN Senate--Kennedy (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    churchylafemme, Steve Singiser

    First, Kennedy has run a pathetic campaign in MN. He utterly failed to see the handwriting on the wall, sticking to the Bushes like slime on slime until well after the rest of the world, and most Repugs, had recognized what a political liability that is these days.  Second, Kennedy's ads have been amateurish, really amateurish.  His latest one actually made me laugh out loud, that's how bad it was.  Usually Repug ads infuriate me.  Third, Klobuchar is a well-known name in MN.  Klobuchar's father was a writer for the Star-Trib for forever.  People might not remember exactly what Jim did, but they recognize the name as "Minnesotan."  Fourth, but far from least important, Klobuchar has run a really, really smart campaign.  Kudos to her and her staff.  She makes Kennedy look oh so bush league.

  •  FL-Gov - Don't Seem Right (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Steve Singiser

    The last Rasmussen poll taken 10/17 had it 46-41-13 for Crist. Early voting started on the 23rd in Florida. The big event in Florida this week was the first of the two debates.  By all the media accounts, Davis was the clear winner in that debate, although no one landed a knockout blow.

    This latest poll has it 52-41-6 for Crist. That's says that all the undecideds who broke went for Crist.  That just doesn't pass the smell test.

    Davis continues to crank it up.  He has relesed a new ad hammering Crist as the "stay the course" candidate.

    The three hot button issues in Florida are property taxes, property insurance and education and the use of the high stakes FCAT test. Davis clearly is the candidate of change in this race, and polls say that the voters want these issues to be addressed and changed. Crist has no plan to meaningfully fix these problems and Davis does.

    I dunno.  something's rotten in the state of Florida.

    You can't govern if you can't win.

    by gatordem on Fri Oct 27, 2006 at 09:02:11 PM PDT

  •  MN Views (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Steve Singiser

    "Kennedy's failure to launch, to me, is one of the biggest surprises of 2006. From when he beat David Minge in 2000, I thought this guy was a major statewide player. The numbers simply have not been there. Any Minnesota Kossacks care to explain??"

    I'll give two views.  

    The first comes from a Republican strategist I heard interviewed on NPR.   He said that because Rove et al. had cleared the field for Kennedy and avoided a significant primary challenge,  Kennedy was off just raising money instead of honing his campaign while Klobuchar was more in the public eye and engaged due to her more substantial primary contest.

    My view is that if a candidate can offer a simple way of framing the election to their advantage that seems basically correct to most voters, they normally win.   The Klobuchar campaign defined Kennedy early on as essentially a rubber stamp for Bush and he was never able to effectively deny this (there is already significant statewide negativity on this score towards Norm Coleman, and he exhibits more faux independence than Kennedy managed). Being on the pro-Bush side of a simple referendum in MN '06 is simply a losing electoral proposition.  

    •  I'm really hoping (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Steve Singiser

      that we can keep that Bush/negative stuff going until Norm is up for re-election in '08.  He's gone awfully quiet lately, distancing himself from Bush by simply keeping a low profile, publicity-wise, when he is usually out there putting on his smarmy smile for any photographer within 2000 miles.  I want to see that guy out of here, the sooner the better.  My worry with Coleman is that he is smart as well as slimey.  Watch him move away from the Repub base in the Senate in the next couple of years.  You can bet on it.

      •  Coleman (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Steve Singiser, mplsdemocrat

        Coleman has been such a point person for investigation of mis-appropriated Iraq funds prior to our invasion, it's going to be fun asking him in '08 how come we haven't heard a peep from him about the billions and billions of U.S. taxpayer dollars that disappeared unaccounted for in the vicinity of Iraq after the invasion.   What's the hold-up Norman, Rove hasn't mailed you the script yet?  

    •  I still dont understand why Amy Klobuchar has (0+ / 0-)

      such a big lead over Kennedy.

      She is pounding him all the way home. The tons of negative ads from Kennedy is having no effect whatsoever.!!!

      Anyway I am not complaining, it brings a smile to my face every day when I look at the MN senate Polls numbers

  •  Republican internal DO NOT (0+ / 0-)

    show NY-20 as a landslide.

    Republican propoganda shows it as a landslide for their side but their internals are very clear that this race is a squeaker.

    The NRCC does not pour money into landslides. McCain, Guiliani, and Laura Bush do not show up to help out guys already winning in landslides.

    Sweeney has won in landslides in his previous elections and you would barely know there was an election here. This year Sweeney is pulling out all the stops on media, propoganda, yard signs, slime, smear.

    Evans-Novak just put out their report saying that Sweeney was sending signals that he was in danger.

    I don't have the specifics but my sources confirm all of this and say that Sweeneys internal numbers... the ones he is not releasing... truly internal numbers... show this to be the same squeaker that Gillibrand's numbers are showing.

    •  Andrew.... (0+ / 0-)

      The two GOP internals (being done by Zogby, curiously, who is also polling for Democrat Clint Curtis...) had the race at 24 points and 14 points in successive polls.

      But again...those are the internals that they were WILLING TO RELEASE, so if your sources tell you that his internals (that he is keeping internal) have it close, I would tend to believe that as well.

      I don't disagree that the NRCC is putting an all-in effort here, which screams tossup. I am just saying that the Sweeney polls the public has had a chance to see had double-digit Sweeney leads.

      "It. Is. About. Winning."

      by Steve Singiser on Sat Oct 28, 2006 at 09:12:20 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I'll see if I can find it (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Steve Singiser

        but I'm fairly certain they released one awhile back showing them up by 6. This shortly before we had one showing them up by 4 and subsequently 1 and now us up by 3.

        Normally one believes the independent polls more then the internals but not in this case. The independent polls (including the Zogby junk) have been deeply flawed.

        This campaign is all about turn-out. They know it and we know it.

        •  Well, Then.... (0+ / 0-)

          The best of luck to you out there.

          I happen to live in one of the least competitive CD's in America...so when I go to do GOTV on Election Day, I'll be doing on behalf of the state party, in all likelihood. Our governor's race here (CA) is looking awfully tough to pull off, but the downballot races are going to be huge.

          "It. Is. About. Winning."

          by Steve Singiser on Sat Oct 28, 2006 at 05:11:48 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  NY-20 (0+ / 0-)

    A Grove Insight (D) poll; conducted 10/24 for the DCCC; surveyed 400 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 10/27). Tested: Rep. John Sweeney (R) and atty Kirsten Gillibrand (D).

    General Election Matchup
    Gillibrand 43%
    Sweeney 40%
    Other/undec 17%

    Dir. of US
    Right track 26%
    Wrong track 62%

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