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Whew! You know you are getting close to the Big Dance when just typing the freaking tags takes you ten minutes...

Yes, folks, welcome to the biggest FTP editions yet, a total of 60 individual races polled. Much of that comes from the third wave of Majority Watch surveys, which I will highlight in a slightly different fashion than you have become accustomed to around here. There is also a raft of non-MW polling data, as well as one national poll for us to chew on.

So, without further hype on my part, head below the fold for all the numerical goodness....

Only one new national poll in the books today, as CNN comes in with their now-familiar Monday poll. It is a mixed bag for Democrats. Good news for Dems, one week out from Election Day--Bush's job approval slides slightly from last week's poll, with 37% approving and 58% disapproving. Bad news for Dems, one week out from Election Day--their lead in the generic Congressional ballot slides noticeably, from 17 points last week to 11 points this week (53-42).

Also, worth noting--for the third straight day, the Bush job approval in Rasmussen's tracking survey slid again, now down to 40%.

UPDATE: And this qualifies as a national "Holy S**t" Poll...Cook Report/RT Strategies are now out with their latest national poll. Among LIKELY VOTERS, the Bush job approval numbers are at 39%, with the generic ballot showing a Democratic lead of TWENTY THREE points (59-36). Among MOST LIKELY voters, the Bush approval drops to 38%, and the generic ballot has a Democratic lead of TWENTY SIX points (61-35).


As we progress into the final week of the campaign, today's individual polling continues to show solid signs for Democrats. Of the 60 individual races polled, THIRTY-FIVE of them showed momentum for the Democratic candidate, while only NINE of them show momentum for the Republican candidate. SIXTEEN races have essentially stagnant momentum.

Since Kos front-paged the top line results of these surveys, I elected to look at them a bit differently. What I have done is gone inside the demographic breakdowns of these surveys, and look at the smaller sub-group of CERTAIN VOTERS. Thus, without full commentary (because that would take six hours), here are the Majority-Watch poll results among what they defined as certain voters:

AZ-01: Rep. Renzi (R) 51%, Simon (D) 47%  [Dems]
CA-04: Rep. Doolittle (R) 50%, Brown (D) 47%  [Dems]
CA-11: McNerney (D) 52%, Rep. Pombo (R) 42%  [Dems]
CO-04: Paccione (D) 49%, Rep. Musgrave (R) 46%  [Neutral]
CO-07: Perlmutter (D) 51%, O'Donnell (R) 46%  [Dems]
CT-02: Courtney (D) 53%, Rep. Simmons (R) 43%  [Dems]
CT-04: Rep. Shays (R) 52%, Farrell (D) 43%  [GOP]
CT-05: C. Murphy (D) 52%, Rep. Johnson (R) 44%  [Dems]
FL-13: Buchanan (R) 48%, Jennings (D) 47%  [GOP]
FL-22: Klein (D) 50%, Rep. Shaw (R) 48%  [Neutral]
IL-06: Duckworth (D) 48%, Roskam (R) 47%  [Neutral]
IL-08: Rep. Bean (D) 53%, McSweeney (R) 44%  [GOP]
IL-10: Rep. Kirk (R) 48%, Seals (D) 47%  [Neutral]
IN-02: Donnelly (D) 49%, Rep. Chocola (R) 45%  [Neutral]
IN-08: Ellsworth (D) 56%, Rep. Hostettler (R) 41%  [Dems]
IN-09: Hill (D) 53%, Rep. Sodrel (R) 41%  [Dems]
IA-02: Loebsack (D) 50%, Rep. Leach (R) 48%  [Neutral]
KY-03: Yarmuth (D) 53%, Rep. Northup (R) 46%  [Dems]
KY-04: Lucas (D) 51%, Rep. Davis (R) 47%  [Dems]
MN-01: Rep. Gutknecht (R) 49%, Walz (D) 49%  [Neutral]
MN-06: Wetterling (D) 49%, Bachmann (R) 48%  [Dems]
NV-03: Rep. Porter (R) 53%, Hafen (D) 44%  [Neutral]
NH-02: Hodes (D) 54%, Rep. Bass (R) 44%  [Dems]
NJ-07: Rep. Ferguson (R) 49%, Stender (D) 47%  [Neutral]
NY-03: Rep. King (R) 49%, Mejias (D) 48% [Neutral]
NY-19: Hall (D) 52%, Rep. Kelly (R) 45%  [Dems]
NY-20: Gillibrand (D) 55%, Rep. Sweeney (R) 42%  [Dems]
NY-25: Maffei (D) 54%, Rep. Walsh (R) 44%  [Dems]
NY-29: Massa (D) 55%, Rep. Kuhl (R) 41%  [Dems]
NC-08: Kissell (D) 50%, Rep. Hayes (R) 43%  [Neutral]
NC-11: Shuler (D) 54%, Rep. Taylor (R) 43%  [Dems]
OH-01: Rep. Chabot (R) 48%, Cranley (D) 46%  [GOP]
OH-02: Rep. Schmidt (R) 52%, Wulsin (D) 46%  [Neutral]
OH-12: Rep. Tiberi (R) 51%, Shamansky (D) 46%  [Dems]
PA-04: Rep. Hart (R) 51%, Altmire (D) 48%  [Dems]
PA-06: L. Murphy (D) 52%, Rep. Gerlach (R) 46%  [Dems]
PA-08: P. Murphy (D) 50%, Rep. Fitzpatrick (R) 48%  [Dems]
VA-02: Kellam (D) 51%, Rep. Drake (R) 46%  [Dems]
WA-05: Rep. McMorris (R) 51%, Goldmark (D) 46%  [Dems]
WA-08: Burner (D) 52%, Rep. Reichert (R) 45%  [Dems]
WI-08: Kagen (D) 51%, Gard (R) 45%  [Neutral]

AK-GOV: Palin (R) 45%, Knowles (D) 44% [Dems]
Rasmussen was among the first pollsters to show this race tightening, and their latest poll here confirms the new status of this race as a tossup. The only poll showing this outside of the margin of error in the last three weeks has been a Palin internal poll.

AR-GOV: Beebe (D) 52%, Hutchison (R) 40% [GOP]
A mini-qualifier to the claim of Republican momentum here: Rasmussen has consistently polled this race considerably closer than anyone else. This Rasmussen poll is one of the first to show Democratic A.G. Mike Beebe with a double-digit lead. A Republican hold in this state, at this point, would probably trigger a vote-fraud investigation.

AR-02: Rep. Snyder (D) 60%, Mayberry (R) 39% [Dems]
Someone will have to explain to me why the SurveyUSA folks feel the need to poll this race weekly, but not the potentially more competitive race next door between Boozman (R) and Anderson (D) in Arkansas-03. Meanwhile, what was once a 16-point lead for Snyder is now a 21-point lead. Mayberry has been a cut above the average GOP candidate running here, but he just seems to have run in the wrong year.

CA-GOV: Gov. Schwarzenegger (R) 53%, Angelides (D) 40% [Dems]
Rasmussen polls this race, and they have it a touch closer than some of the other pollsters in the last week have had it. That said, Schwarzengger is still well over the 50% incumbent safety threshold, and it is becoming increasingly difficult to find a way for Angelides to make up the ground he needs to score what would be a major upset.

CT-GOV: Gov. Rell (R) 57%, DeStefano (D) 35% [Dems]
The late movement in this race has been almost entirely in the direction of the Democrat here, but this seems for all the world to be a case of "too little, too late." DeStefano has cut Rell's lead nearly in half, however, and might be a viable candidate for statewide office somewhere down the line.

CT-04: Farrell (D) 47%, Rep. Shays (R) 43% [GOP]
Is there a blue surge in Connecticut at the close of this 2006 cycle? Coming on the heels of improved numbers for DeStefano and Lamont, here we see one of two new House polls showing the GOP incumbent trailing in independent polling. This poll, conducted by Research 2000, shows Diane Farrell leading Chris Shays in a basic reversal of last month's poll (which had Shays narrowly ahead). The departure of the Green Party candidate will help Farrell here, as well. (Note: The GOP momentum tag is because this poll is factored in with the MW poll, which has Shays +9).

CT-05: Murphy (D) 46%, Rep. Johnson (R) 42% [Dems]
This comes from an independent poll (done by UConn). If this poll is an indicator of reality, it might go to a developing theme in this election: the lack of effectiveness of negative advertising in the 2006 campaign. Johnson has thrown everything INCLUDING the kitchen sink at Chris Murphy, in some of the most searing negative advertising we have seen in this cycle. The net result, it seems, is eroding performance in public polls (a Majority Watch poll earlier this month had Johnson leading by six points).

FL-05: Rep. Brown-Waite (R) 55%, Russell (D) 41% [Neutral]
Another SurveyUSA special--they have polled this district three times. Russell has made up a point or two along the way, and looks to put in a respectable performance in a district Ginny Brown-Waite held in a rout last time around.

IL-06: Roskam (R) 46%, Duckworth (D) 42% [Neutral]
The second independent poll in a week (this one by Day Research) seems to confirm the narrow lead for Republican Peter Roskam over Democrat Tammy Duckworth in this pivotal open seat. A note of hope for Democrats here--among those who are committed to their choice, Duckworth has a small lead. Roskam's lead is a soft one, and might be exploited by a late ad surge by the Democrats here.

IL-08: Rep. Bean (D) 42%, McSweeney (R) 39% [GOP]
Day Research also polls in the 8th district, and their result here is considerably different than the Trib poll last weekend, which gave Bean a 19-point lead. One possible reason--they have anti-war Independent Bill Scheurer polling at 8%, while the Trib did not have him doing nearly as well. Could the independent become a spoiler in Bean's re-election bid? This poll seems to indicate that it is possible.

NE-03: Kleeb (D) 46%, Smith (R) 40% [Dems]
CAVEAT--This is a Democratic poll, conducted over the weekend by Penn Schoen Berland for the Kleeb campaign. If it weren't for the release of that independent poll in CT-05 today, I think we'd have our first unanimous "Holy S**T" poll of the day award winner. Granted, it IS an internal, but the fact that the NRCC has jumped in here tells us that this poll cannot be too far off. This has to be one of the 20 most conservative districts in the nation. A victory here for Kleeb would be like Maxine Waters getting beat by a Republican.

NV-SEN: Sen. Ensign (R) 55%, Carter (D) 41% [GOP]
A week after Rasmussen gave Democrats some hope of a gigantic upset in the Silver State, Research 2000 throws some cold water on the party, staking Ensign to a solid double-digit lead. One does have to wonder if the late issues involving gubernatorial candidate Jim Gibbons will leave some taint on the rest of the Nevada GOP ticket. Carter needs this kind of late development to allow him to take one last shot at seizing the lead from the betting favorite in this race.

NV-02: Heller (R) 48%, Derby (D) 40% [GOP]
Less than a week after a Derby internal showed the race tied, Research 2000 comes in with an independent poll here, which shows GOP secretary of state Dean Heller leading by eight. The Derby campaign disputes this poll, and the fact that the NRCC is playing here tells us that the margin is probably a bit closer than eight points.

NJ-SEN: Sen. Menendez (D) 49%, Kean (R) 44% [Neutral]
Less than a week after snaring some headlines by showing this race tied (and possibly sending the NRSC back into the state to make a last-ditch effort), Rasmussen polls the Garden State again, and this time they show the Democrat staked to a five-point lead. What is becoming increasingly evident--there are a lot of Dems and Dem-leaning independents that have serious misgivings about Menendez, but even more serious misgivings about ceding the US Senate to the Republicans. That makes this a race that will be unpredictable, though I ultimately predict a Menendez win.

PA-GOV: Gov. Rendell (D) 57%, Swann (R) 32% [Dems]
This new poll release, conducted last week by West Chester University, confirms that this race, once considered a potentially competitive race, is now heading into blowout territory. Swann is down into the low-thirties, his lowest levels in the entire campaign cycle..

PA-SEN: Casey (D) 50%, Sen. Santorum (R) 39% [GOP]
West Chester also polls the Senate race, and shows Casey ahead by double digits. The 11-point spread in this poll is slightly narrower than the polls we have seen this weekend. Still, we see what we have seen all Autumn long--Santorum with an apparent inability to get above 40-43% of the vote in poll after poll. This is not a mortal lock yet, but the fat lady is going through her vocal exercises, to be sure...

PA-08: P. Murphy (D) 45%, Rep. Fitzpatrick (R) 43% [Dems]
CAVEAT--This is a Democratic poll, taken for the Murphy campaign by Global Strategies Group. This poll is a couple of weeks old, but it (plus the MW poll) tell us that this race might not be over. If the Democrats take this district from Fitzpatrick (who, it must be said, has played pretty much error-free ball), they are on their way to a vast majority in the House.

PA-10: Carney (D) 48%, Rep. Sherwood (R) 39% [Neutral]
A new poll here by Lycoming College shows in these final days of the campaign that none of Sherwood's damage control measures have moved the needle. He now has to be considered an underdog going into Election Day.

TN-SEN: Ford (D) 48%, Corker (R) 43% [Dems}
CAVEAT--This is a Democratic poll, conducted for the DSCC by Benenson Strategy Group. In what has to be outstanding news for the Democrats, we are seeing the slightest wind developing at the back of the Democratic candidate. Another DSCC internal late last week had Ford only up by two points. Thus, this five-point edge is a welcome sight for Ford fans. What I'd really like to see is some independent confirmation of this partisan poll.

TX-SEN: Sen. Hutchison (R) 61%, Radnofsky (D) 27% [GOP]
The Zogby poll which gave Perry a slightly widening lead also shows some more distance being put between two-term Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison and Democrat Barbara Ann Radnofsky. Zogby's internet polling had this race in single digits a couple of months ago, by the way.

TX-22: Lampson (D) 36%, Sekula-Gibbs (R) 28% [Dems]
A race with this many exigencies is incredibly hard to poll. Yet Zogby elects to wade into the issue, and finds that Nick Lampson leads, but 35% of people plan to submit write-ins. Of those who said they would be writing in a name, most picked Shelley Sekula-Gibbs, but not all. The net result--an eight point lead for the Democrat, and a mountain of confusion bound to be visited upon the suburban Houston area in about a week.

VA-SEN: (2 polls) Webb (D) 49%, Sen. Allen (R) 44.5% [Dems]
SEMI-CAVEAT--One of these polls is a Democratic poll, taken for the DSCC by Garin Hart Yang. Both this poll (Webb 47-43) and a new Rasmussen poll (Webb 51-46) were conducted over the weekend, after the Allen campaign began flogging the "scandalous books" angle. It does not seem to be getting much traction, according to these polls, and there may even be blowback here. Interestingly, polls taken in the last two days have established Democratic momentum in Tennessee, Missouri, AND Virginia. Could the elusive Senate majority for Democrats be back in play?

WI-GOV: Gov. Doyle (D) 51%, Green (R) 39% [Dems]
Jim Doyle is up a dozen, according to the Badger Poll (which is conducted by the University of Wisconsin). Green Party candidate Nathan Eisman has 4%. Doyle is not out of the woods just yet, but his status looks considerably better than it did a month ago.

WI-SEN: Sen. Kohl (D) 73%, Lorge (R) 16% [Dems]
This Badger poll goes a long way towards discrediting the "Interactive" Zogby polls, which still have Lorge at our around 40% of the vote. Lorge is barely campaigning, according to reports, and Kohl is cruising to re-election.

WI-08: Kagen (D) 43%, Gard (R) 43% [Neutral]
This is looking like a real coin-flip race, if this new poll by Saint Norbert's College is to be believed. Kagen can self-finance his way through the final week, and he is starting to see some institutional help as well. Gard is part of the GOP House firewall, and they need a win badly in what is nominally GOP territory in Northeast Wisconsin.

And...(WHEW!!)...That closes the books on the biggest edition of FTP to date. I'll be back tomorrow, with another raft of polling data to be sure. So...enjoy Monday Night (good Monday Night Football game, in my opinion!!). We'll be back for the "final seven days" edition of FTP tomorrow. As always--rec it if you liked it!!

Originally posted to Steve Singiser on Mon Oct 30, 2006 at 05:46 PM PST.


Todays 'Holy S**t Poll' of the Day Is __________

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