With only a week until the Big Dance, the clock is ticking on any Republican efforts to even the scoreboard after a long game where they have trailed much of the way. Today, we look at new numbers in one national poll and polls in a total of
27 individual races to see if they have been successful in closing the gap (short answer: nope).
In all candor, this is a slightly quieter polling day than I expected, but I am guessing that is because the media outlets presume that people will not be tuned in on Halloween night for polling information (silly media...heh).
Head below the fold for all of the numerical treats...
NATIONAL POLLING
Already front-paged by DemFromCT, the big news is that NBC/WSJ is out with what we presume will be their final pre-election poll. In it, we see exactly what the GOP was hoping NOT to see in this poll: no movement.
President Bush's job approval skulked up a single point, with 39% job approval (and 57% disapproval). Meanwhile, the generic ballot remains unchanged at its record high: Democrats staked to a 15-point lead (52-37).
INDIVIDUAL RACES
Heading into the final seven days of Election 2006, most of the polling today seems to emanate from the Senate and gubernatorial campaigns. Today's polling seems to confirm a tightening of affairs in the US Senate. Something to watch as we head into the final week of the campaign.
The bad news for the GOP--there is nothing in the numbers to indicate even a "natural tightening" that might improve prospects for some of their more vulnerable members. Looking at our "momentum" indicators, we see that 12 of the 27 contests indicate Democratic momentum, while 8 indicate Republican momentum. Now, here I must qualify--a couple of those GOP momentum tags are bounceback from some awfully optimistic Majority Watch polls yesterday, and two or three can be tied exclusively to one pollster (Strategic Vision), which either gave a race a [GOP] tag or turned a Democratic tag into a neutral one.
That said, let's look at the data....
CA-GOV: Gov. Schwarzenegger (R) 50%, Angelides (D) 40% [Dems]
Perhaps it is too little, too late, but this new poll from Polimetrix (a Stanford U. project) shows a slight narrowing in the gubernatorial contest. Angelides is up with the best advertising of his campaign, and this poll seems to hint that it is having an effect on the race. Ten points, in seven days, though?? That does not strike me as "doable."
CA-SEN: Sen. Feinstein (D) 57%, Mountjoy (R) 39% [GOP]
The numbers from Polimetrix on the Senate race show a closer race than last week's SUSA poll indicated. This has been an incredibly quiet campaign, with just a small handful of Feinstein ads, and nothing from Mountjoy. He might get some residual help from a strong Schwarzenegger performance, but given the lack of an air war, Mountjoy is only hoping to beat the spread at this point.
CO-03: Salazar (D) 57%, Tipton (R) 38% [GOP]
This race qualified as GOP momentum because it is considerably closer than a Salazar internal a few weeks back (that had the race at an improbable 28-point margin). SurveyUSA is the pollster here, and they see an eight-point shift in the Democrat's favor here.
CO-05: Lamborn (R) 47%, Fawcett (D) 40% [Dems]
Marginally closer than a SUSA poll published last week, this new poll from Mason-Dixon shows Republican Doug Lamborn leading Jay Fawcett by a modest margin. It is stunning to me to see that the Democrat is still in this race so close to the end of the campaign. This is one of the 25 reddest districts in America.
CT-02: Courtney (D) 48%, Simmons (R) 47% [Neutral]
This new poll by Research 2000 tells us that the possibility still remains for a Democratic sweep in Connecticut's House races. With likeminded polling in both Shays' and Johnson's districts, we must really begin to wonder if the Democrats are peaking at the close of the campaign.
CT-05: Murphy (D) 46%, Rep. Johnson (R) 43% [Neutral]
This new poll by Research 2000 confirms a pair of independent polls yesterday, all showing that Murphy has pulled ahead in this race. With all of the attention being paid on the late surprise races for the Democrats (NE-03, KY-02, CO-05), it is worth noting that a lot of the races in the bluer states of the Northeast seem to be breaking late for the Democrats.
GA-GOV: (2 polls) Gov. Perdue (R) 50.5%, Taylor (D) 38% [Dems]
Is this race starting to become competitive at the close? Depends on which poll you believe here. If you believe the Mason Dixon poll conducted late last week (Perdue 53-36-3), then the answer is no. But if you believe the tracking poll conducted by Insider Advantage (Perdue 48-40-7), then the answer is an absolute yes. The IA tracking poll is a big shocker, especially when it seemed to have held such a stable 13-16 point lead for the incumbent here.
IL-GOV: (2 polls) Gov. Blagojevich (D) 46%, Topinka (R) 30.5% [Dems]
According to a pair of new surveys from Day Research and the Chicago Tribune, two trends are developing. (1) Judy Baar Topinka's support is plummeting; (2) Green candidate Rich Whitney is holding steady in the low double-digits (12-13%). All of the most recent polls give Governor Blagojevich about 44-48% of the vote, which might be all he needs to earn re-election, given Whitney's strength.
IN-03: Rep. Souder (R) 52%, Hayhurst (D) 40% [Dems]
Research 2000 takes the temperature in this late-addition to the "competitive races" list, and finds the incumbent just above the 50% safety threshold. This is notable, given that this is a district in which Souder has routinely dispatched opponents with approximately two-thirds of the vote.
ME-GOV: Gov. Baldacci (D) 45%, Woodcock (R) 31% [Dems]
This new poll, out today from Rasmussen, is the third straight poll that shows real daylight starting to develop between the incumbent and his Republican challenger. As with the other polls, it is clear that the independent candidates will take their fair share of votes, meaning that 45% of the vote might be sufficient in order to ensure victory.
MI-GOV: Gov. Granholm (D) 52%, DeVos (R) 42% [Dems]
EPIC/MRA is back in with a new poll in their home state, a poll which gives Granholm her biggest lead in the EPIC/MRA poll in quite some time. While Granholm's job approval numbers are flagging somewhat, her personal approval numbers are solid...and DeVos' apparently are not. The low "right track" numbers will keep the lead modest, but I am just about ready to call this one for the incumbent.
MI-SEN: Sen. Stabenow (D) 52%, Bouchard (R) 38% [Dems]
Here is a race that I AM willing to call. Despite some rumors at the close that the NRSC would decide to come back and play this state heavily, this new poll from EPIC/MRA tells us that this race is just about done. Stabenow is back out to a solid double-digit lead in Michigan, one that will be hard to erode by next Tuesday.
MN-GOV: (2 polls) Hatch (D) 45.5%, Gov. Pawlenty (R) 38% [Dems]
A pair of polls show a growing lead for the Democratic nominee. A new poll this afternoon from Saint Cloud State University shows a nine-point lead for Hatch over the GOP incumbent (46-37). The University of Minnesota chimes in with this pre-election poll, and they confirm some movement to the Democratic candidate as well (45-39). Independent Peter Hutchinson is at 9%, but it is hard to tell if he is stealing change voters from Hatch, or if he is stealing conservative voters from Pawlenty.
MN-SEN: Klobuchar (D) 57%, Kennedy (R) 32% [Dems]
Every now and then in this campaign, we are confronted with a poll that just looks "too good to be true." A Democrat leading this open-seat race by 25 points, as attested to by this Saint Cloud State University survey, would definitely fall into that category. I believe that the University of Minnesota will release their Senate numbers tomorrow, so we will await confirmation. The SCSU poll wasn't too far off on the governor's race, so it might be legit. I just tend to doubt it a bit.
MO-SEN: (3 polls) McCaskill (D) 48.7%, Sen. Talent (R) 47.3% [Neutral]
Wow...the closest Senate race in the country remains so, according to polls today from CNN (which has it dead even at 49-49), SurveyUSA (who return McCaskill to a lead, 49-46) and Rasmussen (which has McCaskill also holding a narrow edge, 49-48). SurveyUSA blows the race open a bit, giving McCaskill a more definitive edge. Worth noting--the CNN tie among likely voters was actually an 8-point McCaskill edge among registered voters.
NJ-SEN: (3 polls) Menendez (D) 47.7%, Kean Jr (R) 43.3% [Neutral]
A trio of polls confirm the Menendez lead in this race, even though a fairly even poll by Republican outfit Strategic Vision (43-42) upsets the average a little bit. CNN polls this race, and has Menendez leading by seven (51-44). Quinnipiac also jumps into this race, and gives Menendez a five-point edge (49-44).
NY-25: Rep. Walsh (R) 44%, Maffei (D) 42% [GOP]
CAVEAT--This is a Democratic poll, conducted for the Maffei campaign by Benenson Strategy Group. Again wounding my faith in Majority Watch's analysis of upstate New York, here is a Maffei internal poll showing him behind Walsh, even as MW had Maffei leading by nine. Still a lot of undecideds (14%) that will ultimately decide this contest.
OH-GOV: Strickland (D) 59%, Blackwell (R) 36% [Neutral]
For those who believe in the inerrancy of those Zogby interactive polls, let us recall that this week's Zogby Interactive has this race at eight points. Let me be clear--no one else has this race within a dozen points. Not CNN (who conducted this poll), not Mason-Dixon, not SUSA. No. One. CNN has this race at 23-points, which is about the running average of the last dozen or so polls in this state.
OH-SEN: Brown (D) 54%, Sen. DeWine (R) 43% [Neutral]
More reasons to completely disregard Zogby Interactive: they have this as a two-point race. No one has had this race at two-points since September. CNN polls it here, and they have Sherrod Brown where just about everyone has him, in the low double-digits. There is a reason that the RNC/NRSC have left town, it appears.
PA-08: Rep. Fitzpatrick (R) 47%, Murphy (D) 42% [GOP]
This new poll, from Muhlenberg College, puts Mike Fitzpatrick back into the lead here, but only narrowly. Furthermore, when comparing the initial topline results (46-40 Fitzpatrick) to the result with leaners (see above), we see that two-thirds of the undecideds are breaking to the Democrat. The bottom line--this is beginning to look like the House equivalent of the Missouri Senate race, an extraordinarily close contest.
SD-GOV: Gov. Rounds (R) 57%, Billion (D) 35% [Dems]
This new poll from Mason-Dixon makes it appear as if the stringent abortion ban in the state has eroded some of the support for the Republican incumbent here. Once bestowed with job approval over 70% and a commanding lead over the "generic Democratic candidate", Rounds now holds a solid, but not dominant lead in this very conservative state.
TN-GOV: Gov. Bredesen (D) 59%, Bryson (R) 37% [GOP]
One reason to take heart in what is a disappointing Senate poll here by CNN--a look at their gubernatorial results can allow us to conclude that the poll is stacked a bit for Republicans. No one, and I mean no one, has this race as close as this. This could be a late "Bryson surge", but I tend to doubt it. This poll strikes me as a touch optimistic, which might allow Ford supporters to breathe somewhat when confronted with the CNN Senate poll here.
TN-SEN: (2 polls) Corker (R) 50.5%, Ford (D) 45.5% [GOP]
The five point spread here is a bit of a misnomer, since it is the average of two polls with widely disparate results. Rasmussen (49-47) still have this race as a coinflip, while the CNN poll (52-44) shows some real daylight for the Republican nominee. Bear in mind what I wrote about the governor's race, it is possible that the CNN sample was simply a bit optimistic for the GOP.
VA-SEN: Webb (D) 50%, Sen. Allen (R) 46% [Neutral]
This CNN poll confirms what has to be considered a trend at this point, as Webb has clearly moved into a small lead. This is the only CNN poll, by the way, that the likely voters screen actually ENHANCED the vote total for the Democratic candidate.
WA-SEN: (2 pairs) Sen. Cantwell (D) 53%, McGavick (R) 42.5% [GOP]
Once again, Republican pollsters Strategic Vision create GOP momentum where there may very well be none with their poll messing up the curve in this race. While SurveyUSA has the Cantwell lead at 13-points and rising (54-41), SV continues to be the only pollster seeing this race in the single digits (52-44). Siiiigh. I am almost ready to consign SV to the Zogby Interactive memorial trash heap of "polls no one should pay attention to."
WI-GOV: Gov. Doyle (D) 47%, Green (R) 45% [GOP]
And (yet again!) we see a GOP momentum tag affixed solely because Strategic Vision says it is so. A day after the Badger poll gave Jim Doyle a double-digit lead, here comes the Republican pollsters at SV calling this race a toss-up. My guess is the final election result will be somewhere in-between the two, but there is almost no way this is still a two-point race.
WY-GOV: Gov. Freudenthal (D) 69%, Hunkins (R) 18% [Dems]
This Aspen Research poll makes me a little concerned. This is the same poll which, earlier in the week, gave us the narrowing gap in the Wyoming US House race between Cubin and Trauner. Now, the same pollster expects me to believe that a Republican candidate...in Wyoming...is polling at 18% of the vote. This would mean, by the way, that nearly half of the people who supported GW Bush in 2004 are now voting for the Democrat. I am not sure I can believe this result. I think Freudenthal, who is moderate and very popular, is well ahead in this race. But I think it is more like 60-30, not 70-20.