Cross-posted at my blog
DemWrite.
If I had to come up with a reason for my lack of posting, it's pretty simple, really. If I'm going to post something, I want it to be more substantial than simply saying, "What Keith said...." Keith Olbermann's special comments seem to be the words I want to say, but he seems to be able to put them together in a much more forceful way than I can. That's not to say that I don't think I'm a good writer. I do. Keith is just in a class all his own, the Edward R. Murrow of this generation.
I'm going to try to talk about a few issues that are in the news as far as Missouri politics (a lot of it is national in scope), as well as Kansas, our neighbor to the west.
Dive in after the flip.
Missouri Senate - McCaskill (D) v. Talent (R)
If you haven't heard about this race by now, you really need to get out more. If things weren't hot enough already, McCaskill's ad on the issue of stem cell research featuring actor Michael J. Fox turned up the spotlights to "Surface of the Sun" hot. In 4 days following the posting of that ad on YouTube, it was viewed more than 1 million times, even spawning response videos.
This race will have an effect down the ballot as a result of this ad, not necessarily on the House races or the ones for the state legislature. Amendment 2, a ballot initiative to amend the Missouri Constitution, would allow Missourians to receive the same treatments derived from embryonic stem cell research available to any other American. McCaskill supports stem cell research and Talent opposes it. As the Fox ad states, Senator Talent voted to criminalize this kind of research.
As those of you who know me can tell, I support Claire McCaskill as well as Amendment 2. There are several reasons why I support the current state auditor over the current senator. The most important is the stem cell research issue, but others include the minimum wage, subsidies for the oil and gas industry, tax cuts for the rich and the catastrophe in Iraq.
Elected in a special election to fill the last 4 years of a term to which Mel Carnahan was posthumously elected, Talent is seeking his first full term, 2nd overall. My gut tells me that he will not get a full term in the Senate. While Missouri has been trending Republican for a few years now, the disastrous policies of the Bush Administration have probably done as much harm to Talent as his own words have. Anecdotally, I haven't seen as many yard signs for Talent this time around like I did 4 years ago.
Prediction: Claire McCaskill replaces Jim Talent and rightfully reclaims for the Democrats the Senate seat once held by Harry Truman.
Amendment 2: Stem Cell Research
As mentioned above, Amendment 2 would allow embryonic stem cell research to benefit thousands of Missourians with curable diseases like Parkinson's and ALS as well has head and neck injuries that lead to paralysis.
One thing that opponents (most of whom seem to oppose the issue on moral grounds) have been trying to get across in their ads on television, billboards and in the newspaper is that this amendment will lead to human cloning. The text of the amendment is actually fairly clear on this issue. Embryonic stem cell research for the purpose of helping those of us that need it is expressly allowed. Research for the purpose of creating a human baby is expressly banned, a felony in fact.
Most of the people in the ad shown during the World Series (guaranteed to have a large audience due to the participation of the home-state Cardinals) were healthy athletes. Cardinals pitcher Jeff Suppan, Royals designated hitter Mike Sweeney and Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kurt Warner (formerly of the St. Louis Rams) all said that this initiative should be defeated because it would lead to cloning and the selling of eggs by fertility clinics, all of which couldn't be further from the truth because they are also banned by the proposed amendment.
One of the most prominent supporters of the proposal is former Republican senator John Danforth (also an Episcopal minister who officiated the funeral of President Ronald Reagan). Danforth has said that the level of rancor on both sides of this issue (as well as the Senate campaign) has him undecided on who to vote for in the Senate race. If it can even make a man like Danforth question who he's going to vote for (as a former Republican officeholder), it's enough to make anybody question what they're thinking. I've often disagreed with Danforth but I've always respected him because of his voice for moderation. One wonders how the world would be different if he'd been nominated to run for vice president instead of Dick Cheney.
Prediction: Amendment 2 passes by 5 points, possibly more.
Proposition B: Minimum Wage Increase
Another issue on the Missouri ballot would raise the minimum wage in Missouri from $5.15/hr to $6.50/hr (or the federal minimum, whichever is higher) and tie future annual increases to changes in the Consumer Price Index. At $6.50/hr., Missourians making the minimum wage would get a raise of $2,808/year.
As someone who's tried making a living with a minimum wage job, I know how hard it is. I was making $5.15/hr. and trying to go to school full time. That was 7 years ago. I also wasn't trying to feed any children, or try to pay for health insurance or for a car or any one of a number of things that families have to do now.
It isn't getting as much press as Amendment 2, but this ballot initiative will potentially help just as many people without a wait. And with annual increases, this brings more people into the real world where working hard and playing by the rules usually qualifies you for a pay increase every year.
Before the last minimum wage increase, you heard businesses complain about how it was going to hurt them and they'd have to lay people off. Well, that didn't exactly happen. It was during President Clinton's first term and we all know what happened to the economy while Big Dawg was in office. Being paid a higher wage makes people want to go to work and they're more productive while they're there. It gives them a feeling of more security, knowing they'll be better able to provide for their families.
Prediction: Proposition B continues flying just under the radar and passes with a 5-7 point margin.
Johnson County (KS) Question 1: Youth Soccer Complex
While I don't have a vote on this issue, I still care about it for a number of reasons. Kids need places to play soccer and the fields of Johnson County, having played on some of them, are overused and in need of serious help. The proposal on the ballot would, if passed, issue $75 million in bonds to build and maintain a 24 field soccer complex. 8 of the fields would be natural grass, the rest artificial turf and all would have lights. There would also be a community center, park shelters, and bike and walking trails.
Opponents of the complex (the NIMBYs and people opposed to any/all tax increases) have been using misleading information as well as outright lies in an attempt to defeat this proposal. They say money from the bonds will help build a stadium for the Kansas City Wizards (also possibly slated for the same area), but the law and the ballot question both strictly prohibit a single penny from the bond issue being used for anything other than the park.
Opponents cite the Cownie complex in Des Moines as what Johnson County should be shooting for. This is really a false choice. The Cownie complex is only used for large tournaments and is losing approximately $1.5 million a year. The proposed park for Johnson County would be used 300 days a year and be self-sustaining.
From tournaments, and general daily use by youth and adult leagues, the overall economic impact is estimated to be approximately $500 million over the term of the bonds. This includes hotel and restaurant visits by youth teams from around the country and the world, sales taxes from anything they buy while they're in town and the creation of jobs.
Prediction: I'm not sure, but I do know it will be close.
Just remember to vote on Tuesday. If you don't and proceed to bitch about the results, I may have to hurt you.