After a week of diary hiatus, I am back with a FTP that is following the REAL polls. CQ has done a nice job of following the ten races that remain undecided. If you want to hear it from their crack reporting staff, feel free to click
here.
If not, follow me below the fold and read the latest on the ten races yet to be called. At present, the Democrats enjoy a 229-196 majority. See how it might change after the jump.
**UPDATE**: The AP reports that the recount in CT-02 is complete, and that Democrat Joe Courtney has won the race by less than a hundred votes. Simmons is apparently going to have a statement tomorrow. Given some rumblings from his camp about electoral issues, it might NOT be a concession.
RACES WITH IMPORTANT UPDATES
WY-AL: Sadly for Democrats, this race appears done. The canvass of the state revealed a final Cubin lead of just over 1000 votes over Gary Trauner. This is outside the range of an automatic recount, and Trauner had previously indicated he was unlikely to seek a recount on his own.
NM-01: This one has moved quite a bit here at the close, ladies and gentlemen. According to CQ, Heather Wilson's lead has been cut by more than half, as Wilson now holds a scant 644 vote lead over Patricia Madrid. This is probably now into recount-and-litigation land.
CT-02: According to a couple of sources (The Hartford Courant among them), Joe Courtney now has a lead of 89 votes over Rob Simmons. The recount is expected to be completed this evening.
IN A HOLDING PATTERN
OH-15: Apparently, about 10,000 absentee and provisional ballots will be counted this week. Republican Deborah Pryce has a lead of 3536 votes over Mary Jo Kilroy. Kilroy has to draw an inside straight--she needs almost all the provisionals to be legit, and then she needs to win over two-thirds of them.
NC-08: With a margin this tight (465 votes), expect this to go to recount. There are provisionals here as well (about 1500, according to CQ), which will be counted on Friday. Democrat Larry Kissell is likely to seek a recount here, given the narrow margin.
GA-12: Democrat John Barrow has a lead of 930 votes. The race is expected to be certified within the next couple of days. Then, GOP contender Max Burns can ask for a recount if the margin is within one percent. At present, it is 0.7%.
OH-02: Another Democrat pinning her hope on provisional ballots, Victoria Wulsin has to overcome a 2865 vote deficit to Republican Jean Schmidt. Another inside straight here, in all likelihood.
CERTAIN LITIGATION
FL-13: Already heavily diaried, Democrat Christine Jennings trails Vern Buchanan by 377 votes. A suspicious undervote in Sarasota County (where Jennings had a solid advantage) has made this one likely to result in a courtroom battle.
TO BE CONTINUED
TX-23: Henry Bonilla failed to reach 50% in the initial balloting, though he had a solid lead over Democrat Ciro Rodriguez, a former congressman. Edge to Rodriguez--more voters preferred Democrats to Republicans in the initial balloting. Edge to Bonilla--he has a solid fundraising advantage, and the lower runoff turnout might favor the Republican in this district.
LA-02: This one is Democrat vs. Democrat. Incumbent Bill Jefferson (30% in the primary) faces state rep. Karen Carter (23%) in December. Carter is probably a narrow favorite, given that Jefferson could not get near 50% in the primary.