Last night I had tv on in the other room--CNN's "This Week at War." When I heard the word "Nir" I jumped out of my seat at this computer to run in, turn it up and watch.
Nir Rosen is the person I respect the most as to the situation in Iraq because he spent months if not years there as an Arab speaker, blending in, attending prayers at mosques, talking with people at all levels. I do a lot of reading about the war and conditions there but I've never felt I could grasp what it's like until I read Nir Rosen's account that I once diaried. Below that, I ask some questions.
This time he said it in his straightforward way: Iraq is disintegrating.
Nir Rosen answers John Roberts' first question:
ROBERTS: Nir Rosen, what do you think the ultimate fallout of this (Saddam execution) video is going to be? Is it going to be a minor bump in the road here or could this just further divisions between Sunnis and Shiites that will go all the way to the core of both sides.
NIR ROSEN, NEW AMERICAN FOUNDATION: Things can't get much worse. I mean you could have pardoned Saddam. You could have executed him 50 times. The civil war, the sectarian cleansing would have continued unabated. Of course, this was a huge offense to Sunnis, Sunni Arabs. But I think more interesting is the effect it's having in the region. Sunni Arabs in the region are incensed and you hear a very racist discourse targeting Shias in general. But really I think things are so bad in Iraq and only getting worse that this doesn't really matter too much.
It is too late to wonder what would have happened if this or that had been handled differently. The problem is that the civil war is on-going and is not exactly stoppable.
Next question---and the BIG one, Rosen's prognosis:
ROBERTS: And as we saw in that recent poll by the independent "Military Times," fewer and fewer soldiers think that being in Iraq is a good idea. Nir Rosen, 2007, is it going to be a make or break year for Iraq? Is this a last chance to try to get it right?
ROSEN: 2003 was the break year for Iraq.
What you're going to see in 2007 is the further breakup of Iraq, perhaps the genocide of Sunnis in Baghdad. They'll be pushed into the Anbar province. You'll see destabilization in the region with more and more refugees pouring into Syria, Jordan. You'll see increased support from Saudi Arabia and Jordan of the Sunni countries, for Sunni militias. You'll see perhaps a consolidation of the Shia south, further independence of Kurdistan.
Iraq is slowly ceasing to exist.
ROBERTS: Wow, not a very good prognosis for the year ahead.
If more troops were needed to "win" in Iraq, why did you not send them sooner when everyone, including generals, were saying that was needed, you idiot? It makes no sense, if you really wanted to "win," whatever that means.
How could you believe that just a few thousand American troops could stop a civil war in a city of many millions?
Why now, when it is lost, expose more Americans as "targets" for Iraqis to kill?
Why escalate and take the last step in breaking the US forces?
Why lose more lives and waste more money?
Why delay the inevitable?
The answer to all these is:
To keep the worst from happening while Bush and Republicans are in the White House. We all know that. He would love to be able to blame it on the Democrats. But this is HIS war, his and his Neocon pals, and it always will be. It is his utter failure, his responsibility, his tragedy playing out in the lives of millions of people.
They know it. Just look at the photo of Bush and the cabal at the ranch during the holiday. Their expressions, their postures and walks, their distances from each other. They know. They know it is lost.
Did you notice that contrary to the word for the past few weeks, they are not talking about sending more "advisors" or trainers to be embedded in the Iraqi Army. Of course, that may still happen. We believed that they would be at great danger and are pleased to see that get dropped.
Note: Rosen's comments about SOMALIA are most interesting also, and surprised me. You can read them at the link above.