Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice confirmed Friday that President GW Bush authorized the arrest of the Iranians from their consulate in Irbil, linking it to an order issued several months ago to disrupt Iranian activities in Iraq. You can read the whole story here: http://www.nytimes.com/...
Times reporters David Sanger and Michael Gordon wrote:
The White House decision to authorize the aggressive steps against Iranians in Iraq appears to formalize the American effort to contain Iran’s ambitions as a new front in the Iraq war. Administration officials now describe Iran as the single greatest threat the United States faces in the Middle East, though some administration critics regard the talk about Iran as a diversion, one intended to shift attention away from the spiraling chaos in Iraq.
In adopting a more confrontational approach toward Iran, Mr. Bush has decisively rejected recommendations of the Iraq Study Group that he explore negotiations with Tehran as part of a new strategy to help quell the sectarian violence in Iraq.
You have to love the timing of this revelation, if we can even call it that -- I doubt anyone here is all that surprised by this announcement. All it does is confirm our worst suspicions. Gee, wasn't it just this Thursday when Senator Biden told Condi that GWB would risk a Constitutional confrontation if he pushed ahead with any Iranian entanglements?
The Bush Administration has been openly trying to pick a fight with Iran for over a year now. We really, really, really do not want to go down this road. We have not done a good job of fighting two wars simultaneously, and if we add a third, or even fourth (Somalia redux?), we will be in serious hot water.
The rest of the world is aggravated with the Bush Administration over the "surge". Italy's Prime Minister Prodi bluntly said that Bush should've heeded the advice of the Iraq Study Group. The press in Europe and in Japan has been equally unimpressed:
From the NY Times:
In France, the newspaper Le Monde — which, after the Sept. 11 attacks, had declared, "We are all Americans" — published a cartoon depicting President Bush as a bulldozer driver shoveling American soldiers into a ditch in the shape of Iraq.
and
In Germany, the liberal Süddeutsche Zeitung wrote, "Bush hopes to douse the Iraqi fire with the blood of Americans."
and
"This is a dangerous gamble," said the liberal newspaper Asahi Shimbun in Tokyo....
When the Japanese press says things like that, you might as well head to the woodshed for your well-deserved thrashing.
Responses from the Middle East are more complex. Some governments would like to see Iran's ambitions stifled, but there is also concern that the Administration just does not get the idea that the situation is out of control, and that 20,000 more troops won't cut it. (Read the whole article here) What was missing from this analysis was an estimate of how this is playing on the streets of Middle Eastern cities. I rather doubt it's being well-received by ordinary citizens in Jordan, Egypt, Turkey, etc.
Given these reactions to US troop increases, can you imagine what will be thought and said and written once word of this little revelation comes out in the press overseas? But, as badly received as I expect this news to be, it won't hit rock-bottom. If the Bush Administration does go ahead with a confrontation with Iran, the reaction will be much, much worse. I hate to think what that could mean for expats. If my own experiences overseas this last year, after the revelations about Guantanamo and Abu Ghraib is any indication, the atmosphere abroad could become distinctly unwelcoming, particularly in Europe. Even in India, which has been supportive of the US preoccupation with terrorism, the locals just might finally start to be less kind to American travellers. After all, they can smell neo-colonial enterprises from thousands of miles away.
This is probably a redundant thing to write, but if the Iraq war expands into Iran, we will have the kind of international reputation that will take a couple of generations to live down, even if we toss Georgie and crew out on their ears immediately.
One final disturbing relevant side note: a friend at State told me about the latest buzzword that's been floating around Foggy Bottom -- transformational democracy. That has been the policy for a few months. We groused about it a couple of months ago, after I got home from India. It basically boils down to turning undemocratic countries into American-style democracies. At the time, I told my friend that this was like tossing a drunk or drug addict into detox before they had even admitted to having a problem, and would be about as effective -- NOT. The latest maneuvers, coupled with the Wednesday night speech, strike me as the opening gambit in the next project under this doctrine.
UPDATE, 12:27 PM EST: I saw this story over coffee this morning. It's from the Guardian, bottom of story:
On Friday, White House spokesman Tony Snow called the suggestion that war plans were under way an ``urban legend.''
``What the president was talking about is defending American forces within Iraq, and also doing what we can to disrupt networks that might be trying to convey weapons or fighters into battle theaters within Iraq to kill Americans and Iraqis,'' Snow said.
Uh huh. Urban legend. Riiiiiiiiiiiiight. Anything you say, Tony.
Somebody get this guy the prosthetic teeth plate and make-up job used for the Mouth of Sauron in Return of the King. He just looks naked without it.
But seriously, I am so sick and tired of the lies that it's making me rethink all the coffee I drink. I already had one nasty bout of gastritis this summer, and Nexium costs a frigging fortune even with prescription coverage. And if Tony Snow denies it, that's all the confirmation I need that it is true.