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Well with all the 2008 talk here is a new Poll out of Iowa somewhat consistent with others showing Edwards leading the pack, Obama a solid second and Vilsack and Hillary rounding it out.  Bad for Hillary.http://www.zogby.com/...

Former vice presidential candidate John Edwards starts the new year with a double–digit lead over three impressive rivals a year before Iowans go to caucus to choose their next presidential nominee, a new Zogby telephone poll of likely Iowa Democratic caucus—goers shows.

Republicans are leaning toward two well–known moderates – Arizona Sen. John McCain and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani – in the race to replace George W. Bush at the top of their presidential ticket, a separate Zogby telephone survey of likely Republican caucus participants shows.

The pair of telephone surveys are the first Zogby Road To New Hampshire polls to be released as part of an exhaustive package of polling data, analysis, and commentary available as part of Zogby’s presidential tracking. For more details, go to www.zogby.com. The deocratic survey included 596 likely caucus-goers and was conducted January 15-16. The margin of error is +/- 4.1 percentage points. The republican survey was conducted with 465 likely caucus-goers and was conducted January 15-16. It carries a margin of error of +/- 4.6 percentage points.

Originally posted to dam2 on Wed Jan 17, 2007 at 11:21 AM PST.

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Comment Preferences

  •  interesting bottom of the pack (5+ / 0-)

    Kerry is tied with Biden at 3%, just above Kucinich and Richardson at 1% each.

    Edwards at 27% is encouraging.   Starting to ponder an Edwards/Obama ticket...

    -6.63/-6.31"Giuliani...member of the New York, divorced, pro-choice, pro-gun control, pro-stem cell research, gay-friendly wing of the GOP." -Jon Stewart

    by Dem in the heart of Texas on Wed Jan 17, 2007 at 11:21:05 AM PST

  •  McCain's not a moderate (10+ / 0-)

    and thanks to selling his soul to Bush, he's not even a 'principled conservative' any more either.

  •  Is there anyway we can ban Zogby poll in Kos? (0+ / 0-)

    This crap is not worth it.

    •  Why? (0+ / 0-)

      Would you care to explain your comment?

      •  This is an actual phone poll, (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        fladem, zenbowl

        not one of those crappy online polls.

        •  i work in market research (0+ / 0-)

          most of the polls i work on are online, and i wouldnt imagine that an online poll would be very informative for political opinion - you'd end up with bad sample and therefore very unclean data.

        •  yeah, ditto (0+ / 0-)

          People need to look at the poll methodology before dismissing it, and I say this as a critic of the online Zogby.

          "Three things cannot be long hidden: the sun, the moon, and the truth." - Buddha

          by zenbowl on Wed Jan 17, 2007 at 11:45:37 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  Zogby was woefully wrong in the last election (0+ / 0-)

        that it was laughable.

        For Example he predicted that Sekula Gibbs was going to lose to Nick Lampson of Texas by 0.1% or even upset Lampson on Novemeber 07, 2006. It was not even close because Lampson won going away. And you know what happened in 2004 presidential election.
        No realistic person believes him.

        •  Not in TX-22 (0+ / 0-)

          The final Zogby non-interactive poll had Lampson beating Sekula-Gibbs by 8 percent (see here or here), and he won by 10.  That's pretty close to getting it right.  What was very narrow, in that poll, was the differential between Lampson's support and the percentage who'd said that they would consider voting for a write-in candidate (36%-35%).  But less than four-fifths of those who said they might vote for a write-in said that they were planning to vote for Sekula-Gibbs.  As we often see, support for a generic candidate drops once specific names are mentioned.

          Zogby's online polls are notoriously inaccurate, but the telephone polling tends to be pretty much in line with everyone else.

          •  You read it wrongly. RCP spread was 8%; Zogby 1% (0+ / 0-)

            The spread was Real Clear Politics' own calculation. Zogby was wrong again.

            •  Sorry, But They Weren't (0+ / 0-)

              As noted in the news article cited above, the Zogby poll gave 36% support to Lampson, and 35% an unspecified write-in candidate.  Of that number who said they would be willing to vote for a write-in, 79% said that they planned to vote for Sekula-Gibbs (there were two other write-in candidates "on the ballot").  79% of 35% is 27.65%, which makes the Lampson lead 8.35% (though the numbers after the decimal point here are statistically insignificant).  For more on the misreporting about this poll, see this Media Matters story:

              On the October 30 edition of CNN's The Situation Room, correspondent Kathleen Koch misrepresented the results of a Houston Chronicle/KHOU-TV poll, conducted October 23-25 by Zogby International, falsely claiming that the poll shows Republican write-in candidate Shelley Sekula-Gibbs is "neck and neck, tied actually" with Democrat Nick Lampson in the race to fill former House Republican Leader Tom DeLay's (R-TX) open seat. In fact, the poll shows Lampson ahead of Sekula-Gibbs by eight percentage points: Lampson is currently favored by 36 percent of likely voters in the 22nd Congressional District, while Sekula-Gibbs is supported by 28 percent. A total of 35 percent of respondents support all write-in candidates combined; Koch falsely attributed support for all write-in candidates to Sekula-Gibbs.

              I'm not sure why you have it in for Zogby, but the criticisms regarding their polls for this race appear unfounded.

    •  Zogby had Kerry winning (0+ / 0-)
      as late as 5:00 pm on Election Day!
  •  Edwards / Clark most Competitive (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    annefrank, MadGeorgiaDem

    While I am a HUGE fan of President Clinton, I do not support the Senator.  Of course, I would support her in the general election.  But I don't believe she would win.

    Same with Obama.  I took the Tennessee Senate results as a bellwether for Obama.  If Ford received 48% of the vote in that state, Obama, at most, I believe, would receive 40%.  I would like to be competitive in the South this time around.

    That leaves the General (who is my first choice), and Edwards.  In my opinion, both would be competitive.

    And above all, I want to win.

    Head to head match-ups from a BattleGround poll released today.

    http://www.gwu.edu/...

    Almost 33 months from the election, the head-to-head match-ups among the frontrunners give the top Republicans, McCain and Giuliani, slight advantages over Clinton and Obama. Clinton loses trial heats against both Republicans by identical
    margins, trailing Giuliani and McCain by 10 points, 53 percent to 43 percent, in both scenarios. Nearly one-third of the electorate strongly supports Clinton in both match-ups (31 percent and 29 percent, respectively). While the Republicans both enjoy greater intense support than Clinton, Giuliani’s is higher than McCain’s (43 percent and 38 percent definite support, respectively).

    Obama performs similarly against the two Republican frontrunners, though he fairs slightly better than Clinton when matched against Giuliani. Although he trails Giuliani by 8-points (49 percent to 41 percent), neither manages majority support. And
    among those who say they will definitely vote for their candidate the electorate is split:
    31 percent definitely for Giuliani and 32 percent of Obama. McCain draws a slight majority when matched against Senator Obama (51 percent to 39 percent), however both candidates enjoy similar intensity of support (29 percent and 27 percent definite support,
    respectively).

    Learn about Centrist Economics, learn about Robert Rubin's Hamilton Project. http://www1.hamiltonproject.org/es/hamilton/hamilton_hp.htm

    by PatriciaVa on Wed Jan 17, 2007 at 11:27:40 AM PST

  •  Wow. (3+ / 0-)

    Impressive.

    Kerry...let it go, bro.

  •  Yes Edwards!! (5+ / 0-)

    Americans voted for sanity - STOP FUNDING THE WAR!

    by annefrank on Wed Jan 17, 2007 at 11:32:58 AM PST

  •  Good news (5+ / 0-)

    Nice to see Edwards in the lead.  I would not be surprised if Clinton ends up skipping Iowa.

  •  I like this quote: (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MadGeorgiaDem

    Pollster John Zogby: Edwards is on top of a very tight field where one of the top four contenders will likely win the nomination. Edwards has shown he has the organization to win, with his strong showing in 2004. He carries a message of both hope and passion into this campaign, and one has to wonder if he is the Bobby Kennedy of this race. Barack Obama’s showing is impressive and Vilsack has a solid showing as the Favorite Son. Hillary has a lot of work cut out for her here, but she is very much a factor in this race.

  •  Not an accurate description of 2nd place (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    fladem, AmericanHope

    Obama, Vilsack, and Clinton are all tied for 2nd in any meaningful sense.

    Also:

    On the Republican side, nationally, Giuliani and McCain are the only top-tier candidates, with America’s mayor holding a small 21% to 17% lead over McCain.

    Gosh, I wonder who Zogby likes.

  •  Edwards is da man (3+ / 0-)

    Obamarama is wonderful and all, but we've had full on Obamamania for the last three months, and still Edwards holds his lead.  Grassroots organization in Iowa that is, folks.  Loyalty counts.

    Oh, and Hillary Clinton is going to have $100 MM and still lose.  

    {snicker}

    JRE 2008
    "We should ask the American people to be patriotic about something other than war."
    -John Edwards

    by DrFrankLives on Wed Jan 17, 2007 at 12:20:26 PM PST

  •  The four way (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MeanBoneII, ThunderHawk13, cyncynical

    split really helps Edwards so long as he holds his '04 level pf support.

    In cannot be emphasized enough how brutal this number is for Hillary.

  •  John Edwards FEELING PRETTY video (0+ / 1-)
    Recommended by:
    Hidden by:
    DrFrankLives
    •  Everybody gets ready to go on TV. (0+ / 0-)

      Nice try at a hit job, but if that's all they got...

      •  trollrating me for posting something I thought (0+ / 0-)

        may be of interest to others here on the blog

        is completely outrageous!

        this particular video piece was discussed by major news people and thats how I found about it a couple days ago

        this was not meant to be a hit job - not at all

        •  outrageous! outrageous! (0+ / 0-)

          I think you need to understand what outrage is, because getting troll rated is pretty far down the outrage scale.  Right down there near having someone swipe a potato chip.

          You posted a link without comment, it added nothing and it was designed to ridicule.  

          JRE 2008
          "We should ask the American people to be patriotic about something other than war."
          -John Edwards

          by DrFrankLives on Thu Jan 18, 2007 at 09:34:35 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  if Obama comes in 2nd in Iowa it's over (0+ / 0-)

    Iowa is an all white (for the most part) state what the anti-Obama forces out there don't realize is that if it looks like Obama is credible he will win 90% plus of the black vote, Jeese Jackson won southern dem primaries and thiers alot fewer white southern dems now, Kos nailed this from the get go it's Obama's to lose and I sure hope he doesn't.

    this is your mission: TERMINATE the Bush presidency

    by nevadadem on Wed Jan 17, 2007 at 02:04:28 PM PST

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