I'm specifically talking about the likely headline for the Democratic primary numbers. I know, it doesn't mean exactly nothing, but like many polls, the internals tell the whole story. Here's the likely headline: "Hillary takes commanding lead with 40%, Obama at 21%, Edwards 13%". She's up from 29% last month.
All true...(Gore's at 14, BTW)...but totally meaningless, and not just because we're a year from the first primary.
Why? Read on...
The more interesting question is why Hillary got an 11 point bump. Great kickoff? Positive national press? Groundswell of support?
To find out, take a look at the trendlines. Obama has been pretty steady (21 Feb, 18 Jan, 20 Dec) as has Edwards (13 Feb, 13 Jan and 8 Dec). Gore is about the same (14 Feb, 11 Jan, 12 Dec).
So, are some undecideds moving toward a candidate? Nope. None and Other are around 2% or lower (Gallup also seems to push leaners). Who lost support? Why it's...John Kerry! Why? Because he's not on the list anymore! His number was at 8 last month and now he's not being asked about. Where did those 8% go? I think the vast majority went to Hillary. I would posit that these are the "any Democrat I've actually heard of" folks who picked Kerry and are now picking Clinton. Does that mean she got no bump from her announcement? No...but it's likely much softer and lower than the headlines will attest...and pretty meaningless at this point.
Also...bad news for Joe Biden. He craters from a steady 5% in the last few polls to 1%. Ouch...that's what you call a bad campaign kickoff.
Link to internals:
http://www.usatoday.com/...