The main page of the New York Times is featuring an article entitled "Farmers to Plant Most Amount of Corn Since ’44." Here's the lead:
American farmers are planning to plant more corn this year than anytime since World War II, as farmers rush to cash in on high prices bolstered by the demand for ethanol.
The United States Department of Agriculture released a report today on prospective plantings that estimated that American farmers would plant 90.5 million acres of corn in 2007, a 15 percent increase over last year and the most since 1944.
This was quite predictable, given the hyper-speculation, rampant subsidies, and feverish boom-times mentality surrounding corn ethanol over the last year.
Sayeth Wall Street:
David Driscoll, an analyst for Citigroup, said that while the corn crop was still dependent on the weather, he said the report was a positive sign that there would be enough corn to meet both fuel and food needs and to replenish depleted corn inventories. "The moral of the story is, if you dangle money in front of farmers, they take it," Mr. Driscoll said.
The ethanol juggernaut has been well covered in recent diaries -- here ("Washington Post OpEd: Ethanol Hype" and here ("Ethanol Rules in Illinois") and here ("At the Crossroads: Ethanol vs. the Conservation Reserve Program"), among others.
Last year, when the speculators' moneybags were opening, the next round of large government subsidies were being lined up, and the dreams of ethanol nirvana were blinding everyone's vision, there was little discussion of the profound economic, environmental, and land conservation implications of the ethanol rush. But now, as we head into the planting season, we see a steady stream of reports and commentaries on the impacts of ethanol, corn-based and otherwise. Here's one from The Guardian. Here's another, from Lester Brown at the Worldwatch Institute. But for this year, expect chaos. More corn this year than anytime since World War II -- except that now we plant it much more intensively, with all the modern petroleum-based fertilizers and pesticides and massive farm machinery that two generations of industrialized agriculture can offer. This ain't your granddaddy's corn field. And it ain't your grandmama's Gulf of Mexico either (you'll search the ethanol-hyping propaganda in vain for any reference to such externalities as dead zones in the Gulf of Mexico or Chesepeake Bay).
This growing season is going to be a memorable one. If the weather is fair and corn crop abundant, expect the whole thing to ratchet up another few notches for next year. If the weather is not so good, and drought comes along, expect an economic roller coaster ride. The ripple effects -- on livestock feed, on other corn uses, on the fate of Conservation Reserve Program lands -- will play out unpredictably. Meanwhile, the provisions of the 2007 Farm Bill are coming into focus. And the 2008 candidates will be criss-crossing the landscape. I hope and expect the ethanol commentaries here at DailyKos to continue. It's not just an issue for people in rural mid-America.
I have three suggestions:
- I hope that the DailyKos community will continue to send in reports from around the country as the spring planting and summer growing seasons play out. This is such a great way to monitor the situation as it plays out.
- This whole issue needs better, more coordinated, objective, coherent discussion from a science and policy perspective. My one specific thought on this is that this is the kind of issue we need the U.S. National Academy of Sciences to weigh in on. Tell your congresspeople to push for that.
- DEMAND that all the presidential candidates make their positions known. I want to hear Senator Obama, for example, explain his relationship to Archer Daniels Midland. I want to hear them all go to Iowa, the mecca of industrial agriculture, make their views known, and actually try to have an informed debate on this. I want to know who among them is courageous enough to raise these questions among the "wall-to-wall" corn fields of the Midwest.
Finally, here is one of the best statements I've read recently on the ethanol mania. It comes, via www.FightingBob.com, from Wisconsin farmer Barney Lavin, speaking at a public meeting last week (there's a local referendum coming up the matter this next Tuesday).
My great-great grandfather Martin Lavin built the first barn with his own hands around 1850. It is still strong and sturdy and I still use it today. That is because my grandfather built it to last. He cared about the future generations. I have maintained and taken care of it, because I too care about the future.
I care so much about this piece of the earth that was preserved for me and entrusted to me by those who came before me.
...
It has been estimated that the amount of corn raised in Dover would only keep the ethanol plant running for less than a week. After that the owners will be hauling in the cheapest corn they can get, from wherever they can get it. They are in it for the money and profit will rule, not the health and welfare of the farmers of Dover.
...
This is the community where I have lived all of my life and raised my family. This is the land and water that my great-great-grandfather handed down to me.
This is our quality of life at stake.
I would never see it ruined for a few pieces of gold.
Your thoughts and local observations welcome!