[Update just below fold]
Vice President Cheney is off on one of his trademark "shrouded in mystery" trips to the Middle East today:
US Vice President Dick Cheney leaves Tuesday on a four-country visit of the Middle East, looking to shore up support for Iraq among its neighbors and increase pressure on Iran, US officials say.
Cheney's May 8-14 trip to the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan comes amid tensions between the United States and its staunch Saudi allies over Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's fragile government.
BooMan called this trip a "stunningly bad idea" and other news outlets have wondered "What can Cheney bring to the region that Rice couldn't?"
Everything Cheney does is shrouded in secrecy, but after some fairly extensive google-mining, I think I can guess with about 65% confidence why the Vice President is taking this trip.
This is a long diary, and the topic of the Iraq Oil Law is very complicated. So if you don't have the time or maybe the inkling to go through it all . . .
Here's my tentative conclusion, up front: The Bush Administration has had it with waiting for the Kurds in the Iraqi parliament to get on board with the draft hydrocarbon law. The Iraqi parliament, could, just barely, pass the law without a single Kurdish-bloc vote . . . but only with near-unanimous Sunni votes, and so far the Sunnis in Iraq have had their own doubts about the draft hydrocarbon law. Cheney is therefore preparing to run over the Kurds in Iraq. The Vice President is going to the Middle East to convince Sunni governments in the region to lean on Sunnis in the Iraqi parliament to get on board with the draft hydrocarbon law so that no Kurdish votes are needed -- essentially to cut off the Kurds.
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[Update 05/09/07 8:36AM EST by LC]: I woke up to find this on the recommended list. First, thanks everyone, and thanks Rescue Rangers, very much indeed. Second, I see just a few comments that appear to me to be taking my tentative conclusion as fact. It is not. My conclusion directly above is a speculation ("65% confidence") that, I think, makes sense of the recent news stories below. I would be surprised to find out that Cheney was not doing what I speculate, but I cannot prove it. In any case, I hope the review of recent stories out of the Middle East is interesting and useful, whether my take is correct or not.
Thanks again. Now back to your regularly scheduled diary . . .
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Some facts to keep in mind as we sort through this mess.
- The Iraqi parliament is, maybe, going on vacation in July and August.
- President Bush has laid down a May 31 "deadline" for the Iraqi parliament for passage of the draft hydrocarbon law, but that dealine, like previous deadlines Bush has set, is going to blur by like a Ferrari.
- Bush has also said that June 30 is a deadline.
- Remember this name: Iraqi oil minister Hussein Shahristani, a Shiite. If you're attempting to keep up with what's going on in Iraq from the point of view of the Bush Administration, that name is important. It's also worth noting that this guy constantly makes assurances that turn out to be bogus, and he seems to have a thoroughgoing contempt for Kurdish concerns.
- The Democrats in Congress are throwing down for proof-of-progress by July. Republicans in Congress, September. The White House is probably under enormous pressure to get passage of the hydrocarbon law.
- Astonishingly, previous reports that the draft hydrocarbon law had at least arrived at the Iraqi Parliament for approval appear to be false.
Okay. Now let's back up a bit, to March 13, 2007. Here we see the pressure that the Bush White House is putting on Prime Minister al-Maliki to get the hydrocarbon law passed.
Al-Maliki tells aides U.S. benchmark deadline is June 30 or his ouster possible
The Associated Press Published: March 13, 2007
BAGHDAD: Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki fears the Americans will withdraw support for his government — effectively ousting him — if parliament does not pass a draft oil law by the end of June, close associates of the Iraqi leader told The Associated Press on Tuesday.
-- snip --
The al-Maliki associates said U.S. officials, who they would not name, had told the prime minister that President Bush was committed to the current government but that continued White House support depended on positive action on all the benchmarks — especially the oil law and sectarian reconciliation — by the close of this parliamentary session on June 30.
"Al-Maliki is committed to meeting the deadline because he is convinced he would not survive in power without U.S. support," one of the associates said.
The Kurds maintain that their own oil contracts are vaild, and continue to resist any Iraqi Federal Law that would limit their ability to sign and honor their own contracts. Note, in this next story, the appearance of Hussein Shahristani.
Middle East Times, May 2, 2007
Business
Kurd oil deals 'illegal' if signed before new law
May 2, 2007
RIYADH -- Iraqi oil minister Hussein Shahristani warned Wednesday that any oil contracts signed by northern Iraq's Kurdish regional government before a new oil law is passed would be considered invalid.
-- snip --
Shahristani hoped that the Iraqi parliament would manage to approve the bill before the May 31 deadline.
"It has been sent to parliament. There has been an agreement among political parties to work together to try to pass it before the end of this month," the minister said. "We still hope parliament will be able to do that ... but with parliament debate, you can never be sure how long it will take," he said.
Now compare that to this May 6 Reuters story
A bill to share Iraq's oil wealth hit a hurdle after oil-rich Kurdistan said it objected to its annexes as unconstitutional. The oil minister says the draft has been submitted to parliament, although officials in the legislature say they have not seen it.
Whoa! Back up! The legislature hasn't seen it??? Let's look at that same story more closely!
Iraq MPs weigh short recess, irked at US pressure
By Aseel Kami and Ahmed Rasheed
[May 6, 2007]
BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Iraqi lawmakers said on Sunday they might shorten their two-month summer recess to try to pass laws aimed at easing sectarian tensions, but bridled at growing U.S. pressure for them to scrap the holiday.
-- snip --
The offensive, mainly focused on Baghdad, aims to give Shi'ite Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki time to push through the laws, restore government services and adopt other measures to heal divisions between majority Shi'ites and minority Sunni Arabs who were dominant under Saddam.
-- snip --
A bill to share Iraq's oil wealth hit a hurdle after oil-rich Kurdistan said it objected to its annexes as unconstitutional. The oil minister says the draft has been submitted to parliament, although officials in the legislature say they have not seen it.
The Iraqi parliament is considering cutting short or cutting off their vacation, largely due to American pressure.
Despite the word of Oil Minister Hussein Shahristani that the hydrocarbon bill had at least gone to parliament . . . it now apprears, like so many other things this guy says, not to be true. (Shahristani is constantly telling people the Kurds aren't an issue. Google quotes from him over the past 6 months.)
Are you starting to get the picture, here? General Petraeus's Baghdad surge is meant to help al-Maliki "push through laws" that Kurds absolutely do not want and Sunnis feel at best iffy about.
Now, here's the kicker. The Iraqi parliament, doesn't, strictly speaking, need a single Kurd vote to pass the oil law:
International Herald Tribune, May 2, 2007
-- snip --
If the law and the annexes go to a vote before the Parliament, a rejection by the Kurdish bloc alone, which holds 58 of 275 seats, would not doom the law. But the Parliament operates by consensus, and it is almost certain that no law regarding oil would be passed without the approval of the Kurds, who have been intensely engaged in tough negotiations over the draft oil law and over measures related to oil in the Constitution.
-- snip --
It is "almost certain" that the oil law could not be passed without the Kurds, not because their votes are, strictly speaking, needed, but because the parliament operates by "consensus". Meaning that Shiite, Kurd, Sunni, don't see eye-to-eye but don't want to shove anything down each other's throats. And Petraeus's surge is meant to help al-Mailiki "push through" laws.
This International Herald Tribune article I just quoted from is important. Let's look at it again:
Kurds and Sunnis have concerns about Iraqi oil legislation
[May 2, 2007]
ERBIL, Iraq: Kurdish and Sunni Arab officials raised major concerns on Wednesday over issues related to a national draft oil law, throwing the future of the law into question at a time when the Bush administration is pressing the Iraqi government to push through the legislation as soon as possible.
-- snip --
If the law and the annexes go to a vote before the Parliament, a rejection by the Kurdish bloc alone, which holds 58 of 275 seats, would not doom the law.
. . . I can't stress enough that that last point is crucial to understanding what Cheney is doing, in my opinion . . .
But the Parliament operates by consensus, and it is almost certain that no law regarding oil would be passed without the approval of the Kurds, who have been intensely engaged in tough negotiations over the draft oil law and over measures related to oil in the Constitution.
-- snip --
The Kurds recently discovered two new fields in northern Iraq after signing an oil contract with a Norwegian company and one with a Turkish company. On Wednesday, Shahristani [there's that name again -- LC] said at a conference in Saudi Arabia that any contracts signed by the Kurds before the passage of the draft oil law are considered invalid and illegal, news agencies reported. In Erbil, Salih, the Kurdish spokesman, said the Kurdish contracts were legal and "had been prepared according to international standards and norms."
Ah, the Iraq Oil Minister in Egypt, making assurances. Condi was there, yes? Ahem.
Ratcheting pressure on al-Maliki still more, the Congress:
Associated Press, May 3, 2007
Iraqi parliament's break tests Congress' patience
The Iraq parliament's recess, starting this July, would likely come without Baghdad politicians reaching agreements considered key to easing sectarian tensions. Examples include regulating distribution of the country's oil wealth and reversing measures that have excluded many Sunnis from jobs and government positions because of Baath party membership.
"If they go off on vacation for two months while our troops fight -- that would be the outrage of outrages," said Rep. Chris Shays, R-Connecticut.
The Iraq parliament's recess, starting this July, would likely come without Baghdad politicians reaching agreements considered key to easing sectarian tensions. Examples include regulating distribution of the country's oil wealth and reversing measures that have excluded many Sunnis from jobs and government positions because of Baath party membership.
Next point: the Iraqi parliament recess is supposed to start in July. Entirely coincidentally, I'm sure, Democrats want Bush to prove, in July, that something is getting done in Iraq. No one seems to be making this connection, yet, but I think it's crucial. Congress is trying to force Bush to force the Iraqi parliament not to go into recess, and to get the hydrocarbon bill passed.
House Democratic leaders are coming together around legislation that would fund the war through September but would withhold more than half of those funds until July, when Bush would have to report on the Iraqi government's progress toward benchmarks such as quelling sectarian violence, disarming militias and sharing oil revenue equitably. Congress would then have to vote in late July to release the remaining funds.
Now, I think, we are in a position to understand the implications of an Associated Press story this morning:
Associated Press, May 8th, 2007
WASHINGTON — Vice President Dick Cheney is reaching out to moderate Arab leaders for help in bringing stability to Iraq, a mission that will include pleas for postwar support for minority party Sunnis.
"Support" for Iraqi Sunnis. Umm, yeah. Read that as: "pressure" on Iraqi Sunnis. Cheney wants this done. He's had it. He's going to try to do an end-run around the recalcitrant Kurds in the Iraqi parliament and get the hydrocarbon law passed by getting the Sunnis all in order. All of them. To do that, he needs the Sunni governments in the region to do some explaining to the Sunnis in Iraq.
Continuing:
-- snip --
While Rice's trip had a wide-ranging agenda that included other tensions in the region, administration officials said Cheney would focus largely on the next steps in Iraq.
What can Cheney bring to the region that Rice couldn't?
A little explaining, that's what. Leaning on Sunnis. Enough of this Condi Rice nonsense. Cheney's had it.
-- snip --
In particular, the senior administration official said, Cheney will appeal to King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, King Abdullah II of Jordan and Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak to use their influence to help rein in Sunni violence against Shiites in Iraq as well as charting ways to better protect Sunnis from violence at the hands of militant Shiites.
I call bullshit on the official story at this point. What does Cheney care about "violence"? He's going there to put pressure on the Sunnis, by talking to "King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, King Abdullah II of Jordan and Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak", as the AP story lists.
Cheney is running out of time. His plan is to run over the Kurds. And never mind that the Kurds have, more than once, threatened to secede if they don't get their way on this issue.
Iraq’s Kurds threaten secession over oil rights
By Steve Negus, Iraq Correspondent
Published: September 28 2006 17:57 | Last updated: September 28 2006 17:57
The war of words between Iraq’s central government and authorities of the autonomous Kurdistan region over the control of oil resources took a sharp upturn this week, with Kurdish officials threatening secession over Baghdad’s failure to recognise its right to sign exploration contracts.
Where does this go from here? I don't know, but the pace is quickening. It's complicated, it's deadly, and it's fast moving, now.
And Cheney's off to the Middle East.