Here's an email being sent around by supporters of the Iraq war:
Here's a sobering statistic:
There has been a monthly average of 160,000 troops in the Iraq theatre of operations during the last 22 months, and a total of 2,112 deaths.
That gives a firearm death rate of 60 per 100,000 soldiers.
The firearm death rate in Washington D.C. is 80.6 per 100,000 persons for the same period. That means that you are about 25% more likely to be shot and killed in the U.S. Capital than you are in Iraq .
Conclusion: The U.S. should pull out of Washington
Let's assume for a moment that the statistics supplied are correct:
160,000 troops / 100,000 = 1.6
2,112 / 1.6 = 1,320 deaths per 100,000 troops
Versus 80.6 per 100,000 in DC
So, right away, one must wonder how this email continues to be offered by so many as support for their pro-Iraq war position. I mean, really, the conclusions are staggeringly wrong. But let's see if the statistics themselves are correct:
The email says, "The firearm death rate in Washington D.C. is 80.6 per 100,000 persons for the same period."
Acccording to the FBI's Preliminary Annual Uniform Crime Report, there were 35.4 murders per 100,000 DC residents in 2005 and 29.06 per 100,000 residents in 2006.
The email says, "There has been a monthly average of 160,000 troops in the Iraq theatre of operations during the last 22 months, and a total of 2,112 deaths."
According to GlobalSecurity.org, (and with a boost to account for the recent troop surge), the average number of troops in Iraq over the last 22 months is actually closer to 155,000.
According to the Iraq Coaltion Casualty Count, between 6/14/05 and 8/14/07, there have been 2,490 "field of operation" deaths among coalition troops. This includes troops who died in hospitals in Germany and the US. Of those, 524 were the result of weapons fire. Most died as the result of IED attacks.
So... There are 2 ways we could figure this:
1. 155,000 troops / 100,000 = 1.55. 524 soldier gunfire deaths / 1.55 = 338 deaths by gunfire per 100,000 coalition troops.
2. 2,490 total coalition troop deaths / 1.55 = 1,606 deaths per 100,000 coalition troops.
Now, my math isn't great, but if my numbers are correct, no matter how you slice it, our troops would be much, much safer in DC than in Iraq. And I'd never have thought to run these numbers if it weren't for my war-happy friends. Thanks, guys!