Clinton - 29
Edwards - 23
Obama - 22
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Hillary Clinton has climbed into first place in a new Des Moines Register poll of Iowans expected to participate in the state’s Democratic presidential caucuses, with John Edwards and Barack Obama both in striking distance.
The Iowa Poll shows 29 percent of likely caucusgoers preferring Clinton, a New York senator, an improvement from the Register’s most recent poll in May.
Edwards, a former North Carolina senator, was the choice of 23 percent in the new poll, slipping from the top spot since the May survey to nearly even with Obama.
Obama, an Illinois senator, was at 22 percent , virtually unchanged from May.
This race is fluid. Maybe time for Edwards to put some ads up. Obama, continue what he is doing because what is on the ground is not representative in this poll.
Clinton’s gain comes after a summer of campaigning in Iowa that included two trips with her husband, former President Bill Clinton, and major policy speeches about Iraq and health care.
The new poll also shows Clinton picking up support while Edwards and Obama have sharpened their criticism of her.
The poll shows all other candidates falling farther behind the top three, despite regular Iowa campaigning by several of the others.
Per the poll, Bill Clinton has been an asset for Hillary. See this to continue.
The poll’s findings are in line with Iowa polls in the past month which have shown Clinton overtaking Edwards, who finished second in the 2004 caucuses and had led in Iowa polls earlier this year.
Clinton trailed Edwards by 8 percentage points and was neck-and-neck with Obama in the Register’s May poll.
Since then, she has expanded her campaign organization and joined her opponents in advertising on television in Iowa.
The race in Iowa remains fluid, but preferences have become firmer since May, with 53 percent of respondents saying they could be convinced to support someone else, down from 69 percent in May.
Meaning, that the undecideds are 53% and support is soft, not firm.
Among the roughly one-third of caucusgoers who say their minds are made up, Clinton is favored by 48 percent.
Clinton’s reputation as a polarizing figure was cited as a factor by 63 percent of caucusgoers supporting a Democrat other than the New York senator.
Clinton’s edge among those firmly decided and her vulnerability as someone who engenders strong opinions illustrate the idea that there is little ambiguity about caucusgoers’ feelings about her.
"She’s a very pleasant person and I strongly believe in her point of view," Des Moines homemaker Tonya Battin said. The 36-year-old independent plans to support Clinton in the caucuses.
Cedar Falls Democrat Jane Thomas said she could never support Clinton. "I think all she has on her mind is power," said Thomas, an 80-year-old retired home health aide.
Clinton's polarizing persona is an issue at 63%. That is a real issue.
Edwards support declined by 6 percentage points since the May poll. Part of the decline was in union households, where Edwards led in May but where Clinton had the lead in the new poll.
Edwards continued to lead among men in the new poll. Edwards, who has worked for two years to raise awareness of poverty, was tied with Clinton for support from those representing the lowest income group.
Of those supporting a candidate other than Edwards, 50 percent pointed to the former senator’s wealthy lifestyle undermining his credibility in speaking out against poverty.
Wow, I can't believe Edwards support eroded in union households. Again, time for ads. And they don't like the wealth. I never saw that as an issue.
Still, Edwards and Obama were tied for the lead on the question of who had the most to offer on morality.
"I think he’s very honest and I think he’s got experience," Thomas, the Cedar Falls retiree, said about Edwards. "I think he comes across as somebody that believes in his country."
Obama, who was campaigning in the state while the poll was conducted, had the highest rating on the traits of integrity, vision and charisma.
Obama also led among political independents and caucusgoers under the age of 45, typically less reliable blocs in caucus attendance than active Democrats and older voters.
Among those surveyed who were backing someone other than Obama, 77 percent said his relative lack of experience in national and foreign affairs was a factor. Obama is a former Illinois state legislator and law professor and is serving his first U.S. Senate term.
Ames Democrat Alicia Carriquiry said she was supporting Obama in part because he represents a departure from the past.
"I think he brings a fresh view to the presidency. He strikes me as a very highly educated, highly intelligent person," said Carriquiry, a 49-year-old Iowa State University statistics professor.
Edwards and Obama get the honesty nod, which could be a factor for undecideds. Folks, Iowa Caucuses are hard to predict. People say one thing and do another, like not show up. Take this as a grain of salt for now. Pay attention in late December to the polling.
The telephone survey of 399 likely Democratic caucusgoers was conducted Oct. 1-3, roughly three months before the Iowa caucuses are expected to begin the series of state nominating contests.
The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.