In the off-year elections of 2005, the surprisingly strong wins by Tim Kaine in Virginia and Jon Corzine in New Jersey were signals of change providing the first indication of the Democratic sweep to come in 2006. Less well noticed, but caught by Our Great Orange Masterwere the State Legislature pickups by Democrats on Long Island. When momentum builds for change, it manifests itself down-ticket just as well as in the high-profile races. And momentum is out there right now. We’re about to turn a healthy chunk of a red county in the nation’s fourth most populous state blue for the first time in decades. So while you’re watching Kentucky choose a Democratic governor tomorrow, here’s another race to follow:
Stephen Bacallao is the Democratic nominee for a recently vacated seat in the Florida House of Representatives. He’s up against a real estate developer Republican who was the county chairman for Bush in 2004, plus two independent candidates. Stephen is passionately concerned about mental health, the environment, and reversing the high-stakes aspect of student testing that Jeb Bush championed. His Republican opponent wants to slash the taxes paid by...developers! Fancy that!
Florida House District 34 is in east Central Florida, along the I-4 Corridor. In fact, I-4 runs through the northwest corner of Stephen’s district. In Florida, this region is the big battleground in all statewide elections: Southeast Florida is New York and North Florida is the Deep South, so if Central Florida is blue on Election Night 2008, chalk up 27 more Electoral Votes for the Democrats. The district is just north of the City of Orlando, in Seminole County. It’s about 35 miles west of Darksyde’s home.
As I’ve hinted by the color scheme of the map, Seminole County is usually reliably Republican. The bulk of its population comes from the sliced-off northern suburbs of Orlando, so it’s wealthier and whiter than the state as a whole. But as the song says, the times, they are a-changing (am I showing my age here?):
Over the past eleven years, the population of the district has been increasing at 2% to 2.5% per year, and the in-migration has been substantially independents, with a decent proportion of Democrats, but precious few Republicans. So the political makeup of District 34 has shifted substantially, from a commanding Republican majority to a modest Republican plurality where independent and third-party voters usually hold the keys to victory.
On top of that, a Special Election in an off year is its own kind of beast. Turnout will be low, perhaps 15% or so, which means getting reliable base voters out is priority one. With the help of a team of volunteers, the Bacallao campaign has covered most of District 34 door to door, emphasizing the registered Democrats who have voted regularly in the past.
Also in a Special Election, the advantages of incumbency, particularly name recognition, go away. As an example of what this can mean, nearby District 49 went for the incumbent Republican by 7 points in 2006, only to switch to a Democrat, Darren Soto, who won by 4.2% in a Special Election this April – an over eleven-point swing!
All elections have consequences. High-stakes testing of our schoolchildren is a fig leaf labeled "accountability" when really it’s a weapon aimed at poorer public schools to push an ideological obsession with privatization. It does nothing to foster innovative critical thinking, which is the skill that builds a prosperous society. Stephen’s Republican opponent, as you suspect, is a staunch advocate of continuing the Jeb Bush-era policy of producing a traumatized cohort of kids lacking in arts, history, and civics education.
Also, right at this moment there is a mad rush to slash property taxes in Tallahassee, and some calm and reasonable thinking is badly needed there, because Florida does not have a state income tax. The State Legislature makes property tax law, but it’s the counties that provide the overwhelming bulk of the services. Therefore it’s easy for the Legislature to be prodded by the wealthy developers to cut taxes since they don’t have to face the consequences, such as park and library closings, cutbacks in school equipment and supplies, and stagnant public sector salaries. For gosh sakes, Florida ranks 49th in the nation in per capita school expenditures, and dead last in the nation in per capita university expenditures as it is! Florida is a wonderful place to live in because it retains such fantastic beauty, but the threat of bulldozing just to put up tacky strip malls is relentless.
Stephen’s Republican opponent is not the most esteemed individual even within his own party’s rank and file. He had a primary challenger, who came within 70 votes of beating him in almost 4,000 votes cast, despite his being the favorite of the state GOP and outspending that challenger in excess of three-to-one. In fact, Stephen’s Republican adversary spent over $77 per vote he received. And he’s outspent Stephen lavishly too. (Now, for those wishing to rectify that situation, your kindness is appreciated, but the fundraising period closed last weekend.)
Democrats have resources the Republicans cannot match, however. The strongest advantage we can wield is the creativity and power of the netroots community. You can call it "bottom-up" or "viral" or whatever the current terminology is, but organizing at the individual level is so much more authentic than the classical form of campaigning, I can’t help but believe that in time, politics will undergo a profound change. Those that embrace change (call them "liberal" if you want) will benefit earliest, and most by this force.
For now, just wish Stephen luck and keep an eye down this way tomorrow evening. The weather looks to be clear and dry, with a high in the upper 70's. Chilly!