I am not a Bush supporter and I do not favor invading Iran. However, I do suspect Iran has a secret nuclear weapons program.
Iran has had a secret nuclear program for 18 years - a program that went undetected by the IAEA. This should be no real surprise, as David Kay stated in 2005:
International inspection, when it works, is best at confirming whether a state is complying with its international obligations. It is not equipped to uncover clandestine weapons programs. When Mohamed ElBaradei says his IAEA has found no evidence of an Iranian nuclear weapons program, he is speaking honestly as to the limitations of the powers of his inspectors.
By using the recent IAEA report to somehow claim that Iran does NOT have a nuclear weapons program is a little premature. What the new IAEA report really says is that so far they have not proven that a program exists.
This also should be no surprise, since as McClatchy reported "The IAEA has been stymied in trying to discover the project's scope."
There's more....
I know, I know. Remember Iraq? All the Bush claims about WMD that the IAEA said were not there? Of course I do. BUT as far as I have been able to determine, the IAEA has never found a secret nuclear weapons program.
During the 1980's and 1990's, North Korea repeatedly insisted their nuclear activity was for peaceful energy applications. As late as 1994, the IAEA was unable to verify if North Korea had a nuclear weapons program or not. North Korea repeatedly denied or delayed inspection access and attempted to re-negotiate with the IAEA about the inspections. The 2+ years of delays were designed specifically to allow NK to complete their nuclear weapons activities unverified.
Iraq's secret nuclear weapons program started in the 70's and was moving right along in the 80's - all while being monitored by the IAEA. In 1980, Iran did not want Iraq to get nuclear weapons so it attempted to blow up Iraq's Osiraq reactor before it went on-line. They were not entirely successful, so in 1981, Israel actually did blow it up.
As late as August 1990, the IAEA viewed Iraq as being in 'good citizen' of the NPT. Following Gulf War I, IAEA inspectors discovered the makings of a nuclear weapons program. In 1992, the IAEA claimed the Iraq nuclear program was completely dismantled. However, the defection of General Kamel in 1995 showed that the IAEA only knew about a small portion of Iraq's program.
The IAEA also missed Libya's secret program, which had its jump start from the AQ Khan network - the same network that jump started Iran's program.
So, while the IAEA was correct - on their third try - about Iraq, they were wrong twice about Iraq and never 'proved' North Korea's or Libya's nuclear weapons program.
Iran was supposed to declare everything and provide complete access for inspections by October 2003. Four years later, Iran still has not come clean - even to the satisfaction of the IAEA.
To highlight what we know about Iran's "peaceful nuclear energy" program, Iran:
* Had a secret nuclear program for 18 years
* Built secret underground nuclear research and processing facilities
* Has design information on a nuclear bomb
* Purchased nuclear weapons technology on the black market
* Denied activities on advanced uranium enrichment
* Denies inspection of certain buildings at certain sites
* Experimented with plutonium
* Had plans to purchase equipment for plutonium processing
* Experimented with polonium - used in a nuclear trigger
* Refuses all economic incentives to import enriched uranium rather than produce their own
* Considers any Iranian who questions the nuclear program a traitor
This does not sound like a peaceful nuclear energy program to me. Of course, I am no expert on Iran's WMD's. But Valerie Plame was. This is what she said on the on the Today Show last month:
VIEIRA: I want to ask you, before we go, about the situation now in Iran. There's been, almost the beating of the drums. A lot of the rhetoric that you heard leading up to Iraq from the President and from the Vice President. I know you've been out of the CIA for a while now but, for a year, but given what you know and you were working on proliferation in Iraq, in Iran, I understand. Do you believe what happened in Iraq could possibly happen in Iran? Do you believe we are headed toward war in Iran?
PLAME: There is no doubt that Iran has intent. And they're, it's malevolent. However, I hope that the American people have learned the lesson to pay close attention to what their leaders are saying and try to educate themselves and get as much information before we rush headlong, again, into a disastrous war based on twisted intelligence.
I'm all for keeping Bush in check, but I also want to keep Iran and Ahmadinejad in check too. I don't trust either one.