In the new Reuters/Zogby poll released on Wednesday, Hillary Clinton's lead drops from 21 to 11.
Clinton led Obama 38 percent to 27 percent in the new poll, a 10-point fall from her 46 percent to 25 percent lead last month. The drop followed a month of attacks on the New York senator from her rivals and a heavily criticized performance in a late-October debate.
Former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina remained in third place, climbing four points to 13 percent. All other Democratic contenders scored in low single digits, including New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson at 4 percent.
Considering how well known she is, it may be that she has peaked and is on a downhill trajectory. Will she get caught in Halprin's negative spiral as she tries to drive up others negatives and risk getting grilled further for her hypocrisy on mudslinging as Edwards did yesterday?
My brief (and hardly original) take is that Hillary's numbers nationally have been artificially high based on name recognition (see Lieberman 04) and as people pay attention, first in Iowa and NH, then nationally, the numbers peel off.
She is also suffering as a result of the public's great desire for change. She has been running a "3rd term for the Clinton's" campaign by hyping her experience as First Lady. While this strategy helps her seem more experienced than her chief rivals, it also makes her appear more of an insider who is too deeply entrenched in the DC power culture to bring the forceful change that the public is seeking.
Welcome to Act 3 of the nomination battle wherein the seemingly inevitable one is forced to turn and fight the rivals threatening to overtake her spot as the Democratic champion.