In today's Washington Post, Zbigniew Brzezinski former National Security Advisor to President Carter, scholar, author, and 'foreign policy realist' has a don't miss Op-Ed:
A Partner For Dealing With Iran?
The Lessons of U.S.-China Cooperation on Pyongyang
By Zbigniew Brzezinski Friday, November 30, 2007
I've been seeing endless books for sale urging us to attack Iran by people like Ledeen and Swiftboat author Jerome Corsi, and watching Benjamin Netanyahu on that despicable Glen Beck's show with the same 'mushroom cloud' arguments we heard about Iraq (worthy of a diary itself).
And then hearing the Dem candidates spinning their tough talk about Iran...I have been in despair about any rational discussion, decency, or wisdom on the subject. (Heh, except at dkos and other blogs of our ilk.)
Thank you Mr. Brzezinski!
In spite of the evil machinations of John Bolton, and whatever the Israelis and maybe the US bombed in Syria, the nuclear ...disarmament we'll call it seems to be moving along..
US expects full North Korean nuclear disclosure soon
Christopher Hill is holding consultations in South Korea before starting a three-day visit to the North next Monday to inspect progress in disabling its Yongbyon nuclear complex.
Hill described the US-supervised work so far as "very successful."
Mr. Brzezinski noted, and asked:
The effort to resolve by negotiations North Korea's defiance of the global nonproliferation regime may yet prove successful. If so, does that experience offer a guide for coping with the challenge posed by Iran's expanding nuclear program? Would a comprehensive dialogue on this issue between America and China be useful?
He notes that the recent progress in the six nation talks have been the result of"decisive changes in the public postures of both the United States and China. "
Mr. Brzezinski was recently in China, and says after meeting for private conversations with some Chinese leaders that he had two impressions:
The first is that the magnitude of China's internal transformation makes it vulnerable to global political and economic instability.
.......... China is especially worried about the consequences of any major eruption of violence in the Persian Gulf. This concern is palpable and justified if one considers the likely financial and political effects of a major U.S.-Iran collision.........
Second, the Chinese strongly advocate that in dealing with Iran the United States be guided by strategic patience. Unlike the North Koreans, they note, the Iranians have denied any intent to acquire nuclear weapons. Accordingly, they argue that Iranian denials (despite their doubtful credibility) create openings for contriving a face-saving arrangement for an internationally sanctioned, non-threatening Iranian nuclear program.
In China's view, the United States should avoid being drawn into tit-for-tat salvos with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, since that strengthens Ahmadinejad domestically; America should also stop insisting on preconditions for negotiations that effectively demand that the Iranians publicly concede that they have been lying. Instead of contesting the veracity of Iranian proclamations, the focus should be on jointly negotiating a formula that effectively forsakes the allegedly unwanted nuclear weapons option.
Contrast this rational and practical view with this: Netanyahu, on Beck's program yesterday where he claimed 'the Iranians were going to be able to make 25 bombs a year and their missles can reach the very New York studio we're in right now...(don't crack wise here please, tempting as it is). Of course, we can leave aside the obvious observation that altho he says they 'can' there is no indication they will or want to. But let's get back to the adults...
Mr. Brzezinski says that the Chinese have a cordial relationship with Tehran, and observes
Beijing and Tehran do not want their economic relationships disrupted; Iran supplies much-needed oil to China, and China supplies equally needed weapons and industrial products to Iran. But China's willingness to play a constructive role requires that the United States be guided by strategic patience.
and he notes that the new found abilities that resulted in the progress with North Korea may well work with Iran, if we would just stop antagonizing and isolating Iran.
He notes that Russia may well see conflict with Iran as hurting the US and China and driving Europe more towards Russian interests ...
Russia would clearly be the financial and geopolitical beneficiary.
The stakes of a serious crisis in the Persian Gulf are thus far-reaching. They could cause a more dramatic shift in the global distribution of power than even the one that occurred after the Cold War ended. Given this, a comprehensive, strategic dialogue between the United States and China regarding the relevance of their shared experience dealing with North Korea to the potential crisis with Iran could be timely and historically expedient.
Zbigniew Brzezinski, who was national security adviser to President Jimmy Carter, is the author most recently of "Second Chance: Three Presidents and the Crisis of American Superpower."
I'm so relieved to see some intelligence at this level of our leadership.
Comments are open at the Wapo. You probably have to register...be nice.
Comments so far are mostly negative, and concern Russia. One early commentor is favorable..