There's been a lot of conjecture here about the recent Clinton/Obama shakeup in Iowa (also visible in this poll), but very little talk of the movement within our second tier. This seems strange to me given how early it is; if pressed to conjecture why this is, I would say that Hillary's "inevitability" going into the race has placed an unfortunate emphasis on electability, as opposed to actual policy. The fault for this lies not with her, but with the media, who seem to do their best to focus on image and "viability" as opposed to substance
Apologies in advance for yet another poll diary.
There's been a lot of conjecture here about the recent Clinton/Obama shakeup in Iowa (also visible in this poll), but very little talk of the movement within our second tier. This seems strange to me given how early it is; if pressed to conjecture why this is, I would say that Hillary's "inevitability" going into the race has placed an unfortunate emphasis on electability, as opposed to actual policy. The fault for this lies not with her, but with the media, who seem to do their best to focus on image and "viability" as opposed to substance.
View poll here
Anyway, the ARG poll linked above shows that what happens on Daily Kos and, to a lesser extent, CNN, does not necessarily reflect what is happening on the ground in Iowa, where the race seems refreshingly dynamic. Of all the Democratic candidates, only Dodd and Kucinich have remained static with regard to support, and both with unenviable numbers. This stands in stark contrast to the blogosphere, where Dodd caters to a seemingly bipolar base, fluctuating wildly, and Kucinich is consistently popular with the impeachment crowd.
Biden has increased considerably in support among likely caucus-goers, seemingly at the expense of Richardson, who has hemhorraged support in the past couple of weeks. While it's difficult to gauge the factors behind this shift, his debate performances can't be helping him. I was taken aback when he accused Edwards of "class warfare." At the time, I was concerned that our candidates were going much too negative, much too quickly, but having now seen the bloodsport that was the Republican Youtube debate, I feel much better about it.* "Sanctuary mansion" will haunt Mitt Romney for the remainder of his days. Biden always looks very solid at the debates, and has picked up a large number of endorsements within the state. It's worth noting that other than fundraising emails and youtube videos, he seems to have almost zero online presence. It seems like an old-fashioned way to run a campaign, but whatever works. Additionally, whereas before, Richardson seemed on the verge of breaking out, our new fourth place sits at a relatively low 8%. It's going to be interesting, folks.
Gravel, you ask? Well, it's best not to mention Gravel...
*It's worth noting that Edwards' decidedly attack-oriented approach in the Las Vegas debate seems to have worked out well for him, despite the harsh crowd reaction. Apparently, Iowans see the need to challenge the frontrunner.