Will Linux ever be a viable alternative to Windows and Mac, or will the various factors keep it a distant third?
I've been using GNU/Linux since summer 2004. I started with LindowsOS 4.5 (now Linspire). In the early winter of 2005, I moved to Linspire 5.0 and then Xandros 3.0. Finally, in the summer of 2006, I moved to Ubuntu 6.06 and currently run Ubuntu 7.04 and Ubuntu 7.10.
Is Linux ready for prime time?
In the early days, GNU/Linux-based OSes were basically considered to be for hobbyists/geeks/hackers. Nowadays, GNU/Linux has become easier to use.
In the early days, GNU/Linux was considered too difficult to install for the average computer user. Nowadays, distributions such as Ubuntu offer easy-to-use GUI-based installers, and on a moderately-powerful computer, can usually be installed in under 30 minutes.
In the early days, installing software and drivers on GNU/Linux was difficult for the average user. In those days, you basically had to compile from source, and you also had to do the same for its dependencies. Nowadays, we have easy-to-use installation methods such as apt-get, the Synaptic and Adept package managers, and even Linspire's Click 'n Run service.
Linux has terrific multimedia support. That is, if you can find and install the audio codecs (which may or may not be legal, depending on your jurisdiction). Linux has terrific music players such as Amarok and Rhythmbox, and these programs also have support for popular portable music players including Apple's iPod and Sansa's Sandisk players.
Currently, Linux does not have the gaming power that Windows and Mac OS X have. Some of the big corporate software houses do, however, port some of their popular games to Linux. Some of these big corporate software houses include Id Software, Activision, and even Epic Games, makers of the popular Unreal Tournament series. (The newest game in the series, Unreal Tournament III, is scheduled to have a Linux installer released which would work with the Windows version's DVD.)
However, just because GNU/Linux can do all these wonderful things does not necessarily translate into success. In fact, the truth is GNU/Linux may never catch on in a big way because the Linux community is too fractured. There are people who use Red Hat's RHEL (Red Hat Enterprise Linux) and Fedora Linux. There are others who use PC Linux OS. There are those who use Novell's openSUSE and SLED (Suse Linux Enterprise Desktop). There are others who use Xandros. There are those who use Linspire and Freespire. There are those who use Slackware. And there are those who use Ubuntu and its many derivatives, including the recently-released gOS (included on the EVerex gPC sold on Wal-Mart's website).
In addition, GNU/Linux's zero-cost gives some people the impression of "cheap price, cheap quality." And the diehard Linux users who believe in the "free as in free beer" concept of truly free software tend to rail against the commercial Linux vendors, especially when the commercial Linux vendors sign "collaboration agreements" with their corporate opposition, and when this happens, the commercial Linux vendors are frequently accused of "selling out to 'the man.'"
Finally, it seems every year a diehard Linux advocate declares that "2004/2005/2006/2007 will be the year of the Linux desktop," only to see that Linux's overall marketshare really doesn't amount to much.
I would love to see Linux make a huge impact in the desktop/laptop OS marketplace. Really, I would. I think Dell selling desktops and laptops pre-installed with Ubuntu (with commercial support from Ubuntu/Canonical) and Dell's rumored deal to sell desktops and laptops pre-installed with a consumer version of Red Hat Enterprise Linux is a step in the right direction. However, I don't think it's enough. The Linux vendors, commercial ones included, just don't have enough capital to create huge media blitzes on TV and radio and print. This, along with the fractured Linux community, will most likely result in 2008 being just another year for Linux to be relegated to a distant third.