I have followed politics for a long time.
When I was 9 y.o. my Dad was a Chairman for Goldwater in New York for the Southern Tier district. Governor Nelson Rockefeller was the establishment POTUS candidate that year and we were WAYY outside the mainstream in upstate NY and America. We went to a Goldwater rally in Binghamton New York where my Mom sprayed painted my jeans, sweater, sneakers and cowboy hat all shiny Gold. I thought I looked cool. I was walking behind the car with my Goldwater sign that read " In my heart I know he's right". Then all of a sudden thousands of antiwar college kids rushed up and started chanting, "In your guts you know he's nuts!" "In your guts you know he's nuts!" The lead car sped away and I started running, suddenly my folks drove up and told me to hop in.
I remember my Dad screaming out the window, You f***ing pinko communist hippies...Get a job!"
We were pelted with eggs, water balloons and tomatoes.
I remember thinking in 1964, Wow ! People really get worked up over Presidential primary politics.
I didn't wear my shiny gold outfit again.
Because of my youthful experiences, I began to study primary elections and am still a junkie. I was asked to explain what "super delegates" are in another thread. I notice that a lot of people are confused over the nominating process and since there are lots of new users, young people and ferrners on the site, I will attempt to explain the primary voting and delegate selection process. Even Markos seems caught up in the glamor of primary voters and beauty pageant polling numbers.
Everybody keep your eye on the delegate count. Just like the electoral college, it is the only thing that really counts.
There are currently 4,049 total alloted delegates to the Democratic National Convention, including 3,253 pledged delegates and 796 superdelegates. The total number of delegate votes needed to win the nomination is 2,025. This is referred to as the magic number.
Superdelegates are referred to as PLEOs (Party Leaders and Elected Officials). Both parties give their respective Governors, Congress Persons, Senators and party chairmen etc. a vote as a "super delegate" from their respective states. For example California has 71 super delegates and 370 elected delegates. New York hasn't even voted and already 39 superd elegates are pledged to Clinton out of 49 and One (1) to Obama. Illinois has 39 super delegates and already 19 are pledged to him and 0 to Clinton so far. (185 total for Illinois)
It is conceivable that Obama could win most of the primaries and come up short on delegates and lose to Clinton.
What you say?
As of Today Hillary leads the delegate count with 58% of the delegates at 169. Obama has 66 at 22%, Edwards at 47 delegates for 16%, Richardson 19 at 6% and Kucinich 1 delegate. (Click for CNN graphics and super delegate allotments) Pretty cool.
Michigan will be a key going into Super Tuesday.
On 1 December 2007, the DNC has determined that the date of Michigan's 15 January 2008 primary violates party rules and has decided to strip the state of its delegation. The determination was made official on 5 January 2008. Michigan had 128 pledged delegate votes (83 district, 28 at-large, and 17 PLEO) and 28 unpledged delegate votes (17 unpledged DNC members, 1 Governor, 2 Democratic U.S. Senators, 6 Democratic U.S. House Members, and 2 add-ons). Total delegate votes changed from 156 to 0.
What is significant is that Hillary is the only viable candidate listed on the Michigan ballot. Obama and Edwards took their names off the ballot in a protest of solidarity with the DNC. As Jerome has asked: Who made that boneheaded decision? It stands to reason that she will receive all 156 delegates that will be seated after a penalty or compromise prior to or even during the Denver convention. It will be interesting.
On 10 June 2007, the Florida Democratic Central Committee voted unanimously to support the state's 29 January 2008 primary. As of October 5 2007, the DNC has determined that the date of Florida's January 29 2008 primary violates party rules and has decided to strip the state of its delegation. Florida had 185 pledged delegate votes (121 district, 40 at-large, and 24 PLEO) and 25 unpledged delegate votes (12 unpledged DNC members, 1 Democratic U.S. Senator, 9 Democratic U.S. House Members, and 3 add-ons). Total delegate votes changed from 210 to 0.
As for Florida and Michigan, assuming that the full delegation of an affected delegation ( as originally allocated before being sanctioned) is eventually to be seated [that is, at some point before the Conventions, sanctions will be (hopefully) lifted]) from now until the Democratic National Convention convenes or until no delegation is any longer sanctioned, if this should occur prior to the Convention.
If the DNC refuses to seat the delegations from Michigan and Florida (366 delegates) prior to the conventions...trust me...there will be a major fight on the convention floor. (with corresponding lawsuits, threats and general political tantrums and jockeying) I'm confident the DNC will avoid too much media spotlight and bad publicity towards the critical and key states of Florida and Michigan and their voting importance in the national election.
Currently, the Netroots is split between Edwards and Obama in a classic pie fight. A lot of energy is being split for beauty pageant primary elections and non-sensical diaries; while the Clinton campaign works behind the scenes scooping up the the caucus state delegates, super delegates, at large delegates and uncommitted delegates. If one proportionately awards delegates on the current polling information of all things considered...here is a projection of delegates for the presidential nomination. The only way to beat Clinton is for Edwards and Richardson to drop out, so the liberal netroots can coelesce around Obama. I'm not holding my breath in this game of divide and conquer. (Note that it takes 2025 votes to get the nomination. The totals below do not include MI, FLA, or uncommitted delegates and is just a rough proportional estimation of available polling data) Even if Obama has a 20% surge in the polls and primary voting, it only tightens the race more and allows any of the candidates to become spoilers or brokers of blocks of delegates. (Many times candidates will release their "commited" delegates to vote their conscience, after a back room deal, when a vote is gridlocked.)
Clinton 1560
Obama 864
Edwards 451
Richardson 105
Welcome to grassroots politics where we are the underdogs fighting the political machines and the entrenched state party organizations.
...and Ohh...remember Obama and Edwards supporters...all that glitters is not gold.