Due to the frontloading of the 2008 primary season, we are rapidly approaching a scenario in which Democratic nomination will not be decided until August. Let me start by explaining what superdelegates are, and why they matter. In 2008, there will be 4,040 delegates to the DNC convention in Denver, a candidate needs 2,020 in order to win. Of these 4,040 only 3,248 (80.2%) will be chosen through primaries and causes, the other 792 (19.2%) are elected Democratic Governors, US Senators, US Representatives, DNC members, and distrinquished party leaders.
Looking at it another way, in order to win the nomination without the support of superdelegates, a candidate must win 62.2% of the delegates elected in primaries and caucuses in order to secure the nomination. This is a monumental task, and in an environment where we have 3 candidate who have announced their intention to stay in the race until the convention the possibility of a brokered convention looms large. Just to put what I've said above in graphic terms, see below.
As it stands now in the elected delegate count, Obama has 25 (37.3%), Clinton 24 (35.8%), and Edwards 18 (26.9%). Only 2% of the elected delegates have been chosen at this time, so the situation is fluid, however the February 5th primaries will provide 1,698 elected delegates (52.3%), and by that date a cumulative 2,148 elected delegates (66.1%) will have been awarded. Assuming that in the long run, Obama carries 38% of the elected delegates, Clinton 38%, and Edwards 24%, this would give the following delegate count: Obama 1,234 Clinton 1,234 Edwards 780. Again to illustrate this graphically, see the following. In order to win on a first ballot with 2,020 delegates, either Clinton or Obama would have to win more than 99% of the superdelegates.
2008 is unique in that the fron loading of the primaries present the potential that we could go from a highly contested but winnable race on Feb 4th, to a race that's deadlocked until the convention by Feb 6th. Another twist is that Barack Obama draws much of his support from Republicans and Indepedents, so that he's likely to do better in states with open primaries (where independents and sometimes Republicans can vote) than in those with closed primaries (limiting voting to registered Democrats) where Clinton is likely to do much better. Looking to Feb 5th, the delegate heavy states of the Northest (NY, NJ, CT, MA) are closed primaries. California allows independents to vote, but has a strong Democratic registration. In short, it's likely to create a fairly even division between Clinton and Obama, with Edwards taking a strong third in many of these states. I've mapped out states with closed primaries in dark blue, and open (or semi-open) primaries in light blue below.
After Feb 5th, it's likely that the delegate count will create a deadlock that means that the nomination won't be decided until August.
And to be honest, I'm all for John Edwards staying in until the election, because he has forced the party to confront issues that make the donor class uncomfortable. If John Edwards goes to Denver with the block of delegates needed to determine whether Obama or Clinton is the nominee, he can push for the party to adopt a strong platform. And while in this case John Edwards may never be President of the United States, he will be remembered as a great leader who forced te Democratic party to return to its roots on mandating universal healthcare coverage, pushing the party to adopt populist economics, and ensuring a new New Deal Majority.
I trust that John Edwards know that this election is not about him, it's about the people killed by the amorality of our health insurance system, the men and women who have worked hard on the assembly line and played by the rules only to see their jobs shipped to countries where workers have few rights, and the young working class men and women for whom the hope of being part of the student vote is an illusion because they can't afford college.
We're counting on you, John. And when the time comes in Denver, I hope that you make my vote for you count.