Public Policy Polling, a North Carolina-based outfit, has just released results of their newest Democratic primary poll. This was done yesterday (Jan 21), so it seems unlikely the debate would have had any influence on it.
Disclaimer: I'm an Obama supporter.
But, I'm also a poll geek, and I find the demographic breakdown especially fascinating, and in some ways, troubling.
Obama's lead is holding, he currently leads 44-28% over HRC, with the last PPP poll showing a 44-31% lead. A slight drop for HRC, but probably within the MOE. JRE gets 15%.
Full results here
The interesting demographic trends are:
1.) There is no gender gap. Both Clinton and Obama enjoy a 2 point margin of female over male support. John Edwards has stronger support among men than among women (18% vs. 12%).
2.) Obama's support among young people is again, overwhelming. He carries 62% of the 18-29 vote (3.4:1 over HRC) and 49% of the 30-45 vote (1.8:1).
Folks over 65 prefer Hillary
3.) The race gap is huge. Obama carries 70% of the African-American vote, but only 17% (!) of the White vote. John Edwards has relatively strong support among Whites as well, with 30% of Whites (compared with 15% of the overall population).
This means that African-Americans are **12 times** more likely to vote for Obama than HRC than Whites -- once you correct for baseline support. Conversely, it means that Obama may face real difficulty with southern Whites. Then again, they may not mean much in the primaries.
4.) Issue-breakdown. For the most part major trends here. One possible exception is that people who see immigration as the most important issue tend to dis-favor Obama (28% support among them, compared with 44% overall -- they lean to 'undecided').
That's it. The lack of gender gap, and the youth vote are fascinating. The support among African-Americans for O is not surprising, but the very low levels of support among Whites is troubling. Chew on these numbers, speculate, argue, celebrate or weep as you will