Today's tracking polls have Hillary Clinton ticking upwards and Barack Obama holding steady. Gallup has it at Clinton 48, Obama 41 (yesterday was Clinton 44, Obama 41), while Rasmussen has Clinton 45 (43), Obama 37 (37). Several possibilities: 1) the pundits were right; the Edwards vote really did split down the middle; but the folks who were naturally anti-Clintons decided right away, while the folks who were going to go with her took a bit longer; 2) Hillary really did get a post-debate bump, as folks who had heard media reports to the contrary found that she was indeed a civil, likeable person; 3) the intense tightening was statistical noise.
All we can say is that this race is very, very close right now, and that Super Tuesday is likely to be a wash, with Hillary winning slightly more delegates than Obama. And everything is still within the MOE but suggests a slight Hillary lead going in. Follow the jump for analysis from an Obama supporter who's trying to be objective.
I'm inclined to treat all polls this primary season with multiple grains of salt, especially after New Hampshire and South Carolina. I could write a diary on where pollsters went wrong, but, thankfully, pollster.com has already done it. You've seen my comments. Huge turnout caused by intense interest in our party and our candidates has made "likely voter" screens, by which pollsters decide who is going to vote this year based on who voted in previous elections and on demographic considerations, almost completely useless.
Frankly, I'm surprised Obama is doing as well as he is in a 22-state primary against someone with Hillary's name recognition. He spent months in Iowa putting together a ground game; he won. He spent nearly as long putting together a ground game in New Hampshire and finished a close second, partly because of a lot of last-minute positive publicity for Hillary. He spent far less time in Nevada and finished a less-close (but still close) second. South Carolina was a combination of being a state made for Obama and one in which there was a lot of last-minute negative publicity for Hillary (you notice Obama doesn't seem to get a lot of last-minute negative or positive publicity for some reason).
But the race didn't really start to focus on Super Tuesday until after South Carolina (the "early primaries"). And it's really hard to challenge a candidate with Hillary's name recognition in 22 states with really only a week of focus on those states. In fact, the whole Super-Duper Tuesday thing was put together to try to get this thing sewn up early; it was thought there would be a clear leader after the early primaries, and having, in effect, a national primary would unify us early to go against the Republicans.
Well, the best laid plans and all that...and here we are in a fight. Given the CD allocation, it's unlikely anybody will exit Super Tuesday with a commanding lead. Right now, the pledged delegate count is 63-48 Obama. There are 1,681 pledged delegates up on Super Tuesday. Let's forget about the CD stuff (which could mess this up quite a bit but is probably a wash) and say they're allocated Hillary 54%, Obama 46%.
That would give us Hillary 908, Barack 773.
Add the current totals, and you get Hillary 956, Obama 836. Of the delegates the two of them have, that's a 53%-47% lead for Hillary going into the Potomac Primary.
UPDATE A commenter pointed out I forgot Louisiana, Washington, and Nebraska, which go February 9. I think Louisiana goes Obama but closely (Katrina helps Hillary; lots of natural Obama voters haven't moved back; he does well downstate; she does well upstate) - let's say 52-48. Washington looks good for Hillary, but Obama gets strength in Seattle. I give it to her 54-46. Nebraska is Obama country, especially with the Nelson endorsement. Obama 58-42. Totals from the three? Clinton 81, Obama 77. I've updated numbers below to add these in.
All three Feb. 12 states look good for Obama. D.C. will easily go 75-25; just look at its demographics (not just high African-American but the white folks tend to be young and educated). Obama 11, Clinton 4. Maryland and Virginia are probably looking at 55-45 Obama. Obama 84, Clinton 69.
So after Feb. 12, it'll be somewhere in the range of Obama 1,008, Hillary 1,110.
For the rest of February, Maine goes Hillary 52-48 (demos like NH); Obama gets Hawaii 58-42 (quasi-favorite son) and Wisconsin 55-45 (next door to Illinois). That gives Hillary another 54; Obama another 64.
Going into March 4, we're at Hillary 1,164; Obama 1,072. Percentagewise, that's Hillary 52%, Obama 48%, less than 100 delegates separating them going into March 4.
Projection? If you live in Ohio or Texas (the big March 4 states), get ready for a blitzkrieg from both candidates that will probably begin the morning of February 6. You're going to get to know the candidates better than voters in any states except Iowa and New Hampshire. There will be candidate rallies and speeches in towns the size of Lufkin, Texas, and Xenia, Ohio.
UPDATE Vermont and Rhode Island also go on March 4. I haven't, and won't, try to project races that far into the future, but I think both are competitive in both states.
What I'd love to see in the comments here is informed commentary from people on the ground in Super Tuesday states as to how the CD allocation will affect the math I've posited above. Is my assumption that CD allocation will produce gains around the margins for each candidate that will likely cancel each other out among 22 states correct? Does one candidate or the other have an edge for some reason I've left out of my analysis?
Let the wonkery begin. But let's stick to wonkery. This is not a candidate diary; this is an analysis diary. If you think my projections are off, or you think a commenter's projections are off, say so, but do so civilly. And remember that no matter which candidate you support, the big winner is our Democratic Party, which is registering new voters and turning them out at the polls in numbers that have never been seen before.