By all conventional accounts, the results of yesterday’s primaries and caucuses point toward a neck-and-neck race between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. Both campaigns are claiming victory based on a variety of metrics - from states to delegates to the popular vote. However, taking a closer look at the results from Missouri, the state that’s voted for the winner of every presidential election in the past 102 years (save one) and is a near perfect demographic microcosm for the rest of the country, not only does a clear trend emerge that bodes good things for Barack Obama, but for the national Democratic Party as a whole.
First, consider overall Missouri turnout:
In the 2004 Presidential election, 2.70 million people voted in Missouri. The Republican candidate (George W. Bush) won 53% of the vote to 46% for the Democratic candidate (John Kerry).
In the 2006 Midterm election, 2.05 million people voted in Missouri. The Democratic candidate (Claire McCaskill) won 50% of the vote to 47% for the Republican candidate (Jim Talent).
In yesterday’s 2008 Presidential primary, 1.4 million people voted in Missouri. The total number of Democratic votes cast was 820,000, compared to 580,000 for Republicans. In other words, 59% of Missouri voters cast a vote for a Democrat in yesterday’s primary. Now, it can’t be understated that these numbers reflect turnout only and not head-to-head results. However, in a state that’s considered the epitome of a swing state, with the Republican Party holding the governorship, both state houses, and a majority of the state’s US Congressional delegation, this massive Democratic margin and this continuation of a trend that has been developing for a couple years is simply huge. Never before has the Democratic party enjoyed such a huge margin over the Republican party in Missouri. But what if we break the numbers down even more. What do they tell us?
Next, consider the following returns by county (listed by thousands):
2004 2006 2008
DEM REP DEM REP DEM REP
Boone 37 37 35 25 25 15
Greene 46 77 43 54 32 34
Jackson 180 129 140 78 112 48
Jasper 13 31 10 22 8 11
St. Louis City 111 26 78 18 66 9
St. Louis County 294 254 227 177 181 90
If you know anything about Missouri demographics, you know that Green County and Jasper County are in the most conservative, reliably Republican part of the state (Southwest MO). In Greene County, Democrats have gone from being down by 30% in 2004 to only being down 4%. In Jasper County, Democrats have gone from being down 40% in 2004 to only being down 16%. Once again keeping in mind that these numbers are based on turnout and not head-to-head results and taking the necessary grains of salt, this is likewise huge for Democrats and scary for Republicans. Republicans rely on huge advantages in places like Greene and Jasper counties to offset the huge Democratic advantages in St. Louis and Kansas City (advantages, that as you can see, are growing more enormous each year). Simply put, if Republicans can not win overwhelming in places like Greene and Jackson Counties, there is no way they can win Missouri. And it ain’t looking good.
And what’s that about Barack Obama, you say?
The most obvious sign that one can point to that supports Obama’s "surge" in Missouri is his unexpected win. Survey USA, which proved to be the most accurate pollster this time around, predicted as recently as Monday a huge 10+ point win for Hillary Clinton. And as recently as January 20th, Clinton was ahead by nearly 20 points in Missouri. So what factors contributed to Obama’s win in Missouri, and what do they tell us about his chances in the rest of the country?
The most telling information coming out of exit polling is the gender make-up of those that voted for a Democrat in Missouri yesterday. Women made up 56% of voters compared to only 44% for Men. The question seems to always have been whether or not Obama could capture enough women to thwart Clinton and win the nomination. In Missouri, Obama won the "Women Vote" and therefore, the answer appears to be yes.
Another telling sign, especially considering the large number of undecided voters remaining: Voters in Missouri who made a decision on who to support in the past week voted in favor of Obama 60% to 40%. If the momentum Obama has been enjoying continues, this number will only increase and could end up serving as the factor that pushes Obama over the tipping point.
Finally, consider these groups, all of which roughly evenly split 50/50 for Clinton and Obama in Missouri:
White Men
Churchgoers
Those that say health care is the most important issue
Those that say they are "falling behind" economically
These are all groups that have always been considered to be either liabilities for Obama or strengths for Clinton. At least in Missouri, this no longer appears to be the case.
Make no mistake, the race for the Democratic nomination is nowhere near over, and the war for the White House still looms on the horizon, but if Missouri, America’s bellweather, provides us with any hints (and it almost always does), things are shaping up pretty well for Barack Obama and the Democratic Party.