Super Duper Tuesday has left us with a super duper mess on our hands. Now it could be a good mess, or a bad mess...hard to tell at this point. There are merits to a long primary season versus a short one. But let's not get ahead of ourselves, or predict that one candidate has the advantage over the other. Because the fact of the matter is that this thing may not decided until the convention in Denver.
A simple look at the numbers tells us so. First, take a look at the projected delegate count from last night. Projections are that Obama took in 845 pledged delegates and Clinton took in 836. Add that to the delegates already allocated in prior contests (excluding Michigan and Florida) and Obama has 908 pledged delegates and Clinton 884. Add to THAT the "superdelegates" that have pledged, and Obama's total is 1036 and Clinton's in 1095.
Looking ahead, and you'll see where the mess begins.
It's simple math, really. Of ALL the remaining contests on the Democratic side, there are only 1,378 more pledged delegates to be had. Again, doing the math, with 2,025 delegates needed to nominate, that means that Obama or Clinton need to get roughly 900 to 1000 more delegates to sew it up.
Of the remaining delegates up for grabs in primaries and/or caucuses, that means that one of the candidates needs to win two-thirds of all the remaining delegates up for grabs to win it outright.
Otherwise, it goes to those pesky "superdelegates" to decide our nominee.
As much as one may want to cheer on a given candidate (and I support Obama), I don't think it's rational to even make the argument that EITHER candidate can win 2/3rds of the remaining pledged delegates outright. Neither has come close at this point. And while one may outpace the other in the coming months, it's doubtful that this will be locked up before convention. Extremely doubtful.
At this point, the race is about getting convincing victories that will sway a cadre of those superdelegates to jump on board.
But if this relatively even split continues, look out.
What would have been the "Coronation in Colorado" for one of these candidates could end up being a "Disaster in Denver" for both of them.
At least the convention will be fun to watch again...