Dont say it's the end of the road.
Remember the Democrats we sent?
I need you, Mitt,
To put through the shredder in all the debates,
Oh Mitt! Dont leave me now.
How could you go?
When you know how I need you,
To beat to a pulp on an election night.
Oh Mitt, Dont leave me now.
How can you treat me this way?
Running away. Oh Mitt,
Why are you running away?
Thoughts on McCain vs. Huckabee below
So what happens now? Romney still has 286 delegates according to CNN. McCain has 720, while Huckabee has 181. Is McCain inevitable now?
I don't think so. 1191 delegates are needed to win. McCain needs 471 more to seal it. 1183 delegates remain to be decided.
What would it take for Romney to be the kingmaker at the convention? McCain has to get 470 or fewer delegates, while Huckabee has to get the remaining 713.
Of the states remaining, only three are winner-take-all states, according to RCP. (They are Virginia, D.C., and Vermont, which collectively have 99 delegates.)
If we suppose Huckabee wins all three states by a slim margin, he gets all 99 of the delegates, and now Huckabee has to get at least 612 delegates, meaning he needs to win every later state by an average of 57%, which is a pretty significant margin.
Before you conclude this is totally unrealistic, keep in mind that McCain is only getting around 40% nationally in the primaries so far. He's higher than that in states like New York and California, where the Republicans tend to be somewhat liberal, but in states like Ohio and Pennsylvania, the Republicans are very conservative. (It's the rest of the state that makes up for them and makes them swing states.) Pennsylvania, where I'm from, almost defeated Arlen Specter in a primary. And McCain is a lot more antagonistic to the conservatives than Specter is.
It all depends on whether the right-wingers unite around Huckabee. A Romney endorsement now, and people like Limbaugh and Coulter and the gang signing on, could push him over the top. Now that it's finally McCain vs. Not-McCain, it could get pretty competitive.
McCain may still win this one, but the right combination of events could force their contest to last until May.
Ah, but what do I know? A year ago, I bet money with anyone who would take it that Romney would win this one. Now it's time to go pay up.