http://www.surveyusa.com/...
Great news - brand new polling from the very reliable Survey USA, which nailed most of the Feb. 5th states, gives Hillary a very, very solid lead in Ohio!
We all knew February was going to be very tough, but what this tells us is that her lead in the large and critical states that will be voting a bit later is holding.
Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania - if Obama can't win any of those three, he will not be the nominee - especially if he loses by these types of margins.
Keep your chins up, Hillary supporters. Better days are ahead of us!
UPDATE: There is a fascinating analysis of the race here:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/...
Based on very detailed analysis of all the results so far, the study concludes:
(1) As the median income of white voters increases, Obama does better. This is consistent with the hypothesis offered above: wealthier whites are attracted to Obama, poorer whites are attracted to Clinton.
(2) Obama does better in caucuses than in primaries. This was the strongest predictor of all explanatory variables, which is not surprising in light of Obama's large victories in the caucus states.
(3) Clinton does better as the number of candidate visits increases. This was a bit of a surprise, but it is good news for her. Campaign effects seem to incline the electorate to her.
(4) Obama does better in states that are "homogeneously white." This is consistent with the hypothesis we offered: white voters in "homogeneous" states see Obama differently than white voters in heterogeneous states.
(5) Clinton does "better" as we move to the South. This might sound counter-intuitive. However, remember that we included this variable to account for the inclination of southern whites to go for Clinton. Obama's strength in the south is accounted for by the African American variable.
(6) As the union population increases, Clinton does better.
(7) As the Catholic population increases, Clinton does better.
(8) As the African American population increases, Obama does better.
I am highlighting number 3 because there is a misconception that a lengthy campaign guarantees Obama will gain. Apparently this ain't necessarily the case!