Not a candidate diary.
Kosovo, formerly a province in former Yugoslavia (and subsequently in Serbia), just declared its independence in defiance (at least according to the inevitable statement of the Russian ambassador) of UN rules. This independence will likely be recognized by at least some EU states on Monday.
This diary is about what's going to happen next - and it looks like it will be a cascade of declarations of independence from other breakaway regions, mostly aligned with Russia, specifically South Ossetia, Abkhazia, and Pridnestrov'ye. Russia and Serbia are quite likely to recognize the independence of these regions. Be aware - some links are advocacy sites for the independence of corresponding regions, so employ your critical skills while browsing. Also looks like Abkhazia is a country in need of a better webmaster for their English-language site...
Some background...
The US media are not giving much coverage to all this mess and to the role the NATO involvement in the late 1990s may have played in unleashing it. On the other hand, people will argue about that involvement being a sad but necessary measure to stop brutal ethnic cleansing.
Anyways, the goal of the NATO military operation in 1998 and subsequent international peacekeeper presence in countries and provinces of former Yugoslavia was to stop ethnic cleansing. It largely succeeded in ending the most violent form of it (i.e., taking people you don't like to the outskirts of the village and shooting them), however, low-intensity ethnic cleansing still took place. In 1991, there were 53% ethnic Albanians and 25% ethnic Serbs living in Kosovo Polje near the site of the battle of 1389. Now it's more than 85% ethnic Albanians (Source: UN Municipal Community Office).
Kosovo has a near-mystical historical importance for the Serbs as the birthplace of their nation. The Battle of Kosovo in 1389 was to the Serbian history as the Battle of Alamo (1836) to the US history - a bloody defeat and a rallying cry. So the typical Serb reaction to Kosovo independence would be comparable to a typical American reaction to news of Bexar County seceding from the US and forming close ties with Mexico. Emotions run high, in other words.
The question is, however, where does this regional ethnic segregation stop? The next step will be likely the pro forma declarations of independence in:
- Abkhazia (pro-Russian, nominally part of Georgia)
- Soluth Ossetia (pro-Russian, nominally part of Georgia)
- Pridnestrov'ye (pro-Russian, nominally part of Moldova)
- Nagorny Karabakh (pro-Armenian, nominally part of Azerbaijan)
I don't think this is good. There should be fewer borders, not more, people should live together, speak in many languages, drink wine and coffee, and eat spicy foods. This is a mess. Sadly, with the current state of the US foreign policy, any US involvement will make this mess worse. One more reason to get a Democrat in the White House. If at all possible, tomorrow, please.
UPDATE.
AFP confirms the upcoming bid for independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, likely to happen tomorrow.
UPDATE 2.
Declarations did not happen, AFP article was edited accordingly.