Today's Gallup tracking poll shows, for the third straight day, that Obama has a statistically significant lead over Clinton at the national level (today it's 49-42). That in itself: nice, but nothing new, right? But I looked at some of the breakouts of the subgroups, and I saw something buried down there that set off 'red alert' for me: Obama has taken a 50-46 lead among Hispanic voters nationwide, with an almost 20-point turnaround from the previous round of polling.
Here are the results from the Feb. 5-9 round of polling:
Feb. 5-9 | Clinton | Obama |
Hispanic | 63% | 32% |
Non-Hispanic | 47% | 44% |
Here are the results from the most current round of polling, Feb. 13-17. (Sample size 2,022, MoE +/- 2% for total sample, with larger margins for subgroups.)
Feb. 13-17 | Clinton | Obama |
Hispanic | 46% | 50% |
Non-Hispanic | 42% | 49% |
This is a very important little piece of data. Clinton won a sizable victory in California, more than anything, through her dominance of the Latino vote there. And her hopes for winning Texas must hinge, in large part, on the large Latino population there. If she has lost her edge with Latinos, that blunts her chances in Texas, and Texas is her absolute must-win firewall state.
The data breakdowns also see Obama taking his first lead among middle-aged voters (ages 35-54). In the Feb. 5-9 round of polling, Clinton won this group 49-42%. In the Feb. 13-17 round, Obama wins 51-42%.
Of course, these mirror the broader moves in support from Clinton to Obama (for instance, the daily tracking poll on Super Tuesday, Feb. 5, was Clinton 52%, Obama 39%). But the movement of these subgroups... and especially Hispanics, who are key to cracking the Texas firewall... really caught my eye. (H/t to TPM!)