In an office discussion today, the question came up: if the Democratic primary delegates were assigned winner-take-all, like in the Republican race, would the race be as close as it is now?
Here's the current delegate count, using FleetAdmiralJ's spreadsheet numbers (which include preliminary WI numbers):
Actual Delegates (as of 19 Feb) |
Clinton | 1,022 |
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Obama | 1,173 |
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But if each state awarded all of its delegates to the winner of the popular vote (or the candidate with the largest caucus representation), the current delegate count would be...
Winner-Take-All Delegates (as of 19 Feb) |
Clinton | 1,075 |
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Obama | 1,170 |
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Curiously enough, Obama's total is almost identical. Clinton's numbers are a little better, primarily because she picks up 22 of Edwards' 26 delegates (from Iowa and South Carolina) and the as-yet-unpledged delegates from CO and WI. correction: Obama gets the lion's share of Edwards' delegates, as well as CO/WI.
So, assuming the results up to this point went the same, there would be no significant difference in the delegate picture.
Of course, that raises the question of whether the contests would have returned similar results under this hypothetical delegate distribution. The January numbers wouldn't have been significantly different, but Super Tuesday would have given Clinton a 330-delegate advantage, instead of the 26-delegate gap she actually ended up with.
Would that have changed Obama's February streak? Impossible to say, of course, but I don't happen to agree with the sentiment that Super Tuesday would have closed the deal for Clinton. Obama may very well have stayed in the race, still winning the states he has won since, and our little imaginary scenario would leave us... where we actually are.
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By request, here's a breakdown of actual vs. Winner-take-all (WTA) delegates, by date.
| Actual | WTA |
| Clinton | Obama | Clinton | Obama |
Jan 3 (IA) | 15 | 16 | 0 | 45 |
Jan 8 (NH) | 24 | 25 | 22 | 45 |
Jan 19 (NV) | 36 | 38 | 45 | 47 |
Jan 26 (SC) | 48 | 63 | 47 | 90 |
Feb 5 (Super Tuesday) | 874 | 909 | 1075 | 743 |
Feb 9 (LA,NE,VI,WA) | 930 | 1014 | 1075 | 904 |
Feb 10 (ME) | 939 | 1029 | 1075 | 928 |
Feb 12 (DC,MD,VA) | 998 | 1138 | 1075 | 1096 |
Feb 19 (WI) | 1022 | 1173 | 1075 | 1170 |