Cross-posted at Election Inspection under elliotka
Ok, for a bit of a break in the primary action, it’s time to start looking at some Senate races. Basically, what I’m going to do is do a ranking system much like Charlie Cook does, only I will also be giving a fairly detailed analysis of each race, also the races which would normally be classified as "likely" for incumbent parties, I’m going to label as Possible Darkhorse Races. Finally, I’m going to do this list in multiple posts, as to be more thorough with each race. I will not be giving an analysis of any incumbent races which I see as being completely uncompetitive, just because there’s no reason for it.
(Formating note: races with an incumbent running for re-election will have that incumbent followed by the state in parenthesis, and vice-versa for open seat contests)
Solid Democratic (Pick-up)
- Virginia (Warner)
Solid Democratic (Retention)
- Kerry (Massachusetts)
- Durbin (Illinois)
- Baucus (Montana)
- Johnson (South Dakota)
- Levin (Michigan)
- Lautenberg (New Jersey)
- Harkin (Iowa)
- Biden (Delaware)
- Reed (Rhode Island)
- Pryor (Arkansas)
- Rockefeller (West Virginia)
Leans Democratic (Pick-up)
- New Mexico (Domenici)
- Sununu (New Hampshire)
Leans Democratic (Retention)
- Landrieu (Lousiana)
Toss-up
- Colorado (Allard)
- Coleman (Minnesota)
Leans Republican (Retention)
- Smith (Oregon)
- Collins (Maine)
Solid Republican (Retention)
- Graham (South Carolina)
- McConnell (Kentucky)
- Enzi (Wyoming-A)
- Barrasso (Wyoming-B)
- Sessions (Alabama)
- Roberts (Kansas)
- Cochran (Mississippi-A)
- Chambliss (Georgia)
- Alexander (Tennessee)
Possible Darkhorse Races (Republicans)
- Idaho (Craig)
- Wicker (Mississippi-B)
- Dole (North Carolina)
- Stevens (Alaska)
- Nebraska (Hagel)
- Cornyn (Texas)
- Inhofe (Oklahoma)
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Side note: I’m going to try to break these posts into looking at each category separately, that way we can look at solid a solid analysis of each race which is competitive or could become competitive.
In addition, even though my rankings already, to a degree, reflect a money gap between the Democrats and Republicans, at some point, I might look at how much the RNC will be able to assist the NRSC due to the clear fundraising defecit John McCain has going against Barack Obama (sorry Hillary supporters, but because there is more than enough evidence to imply that Obama has a much greater chance of being the nominee, I am operating under the assumption that he will be the nominee).
...
Virginia
Status: Open Seat
Ranking: Solid Democratic (Pick-up)
Democrat running: Mark Warner (former governor)
- Money raised Quarter 4: $2.7 million
- Cash on Hand as of 2007: $2.9 million
Republican running: Jim Gilmore (former governor)
- Money raised Quarter 4: $343,000
- Cash on Hand as of 2007: $183,000
Polling from Virginia
-
Rasmussen (released January 3) Warner 53% Gilmore 38%
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Survey USA (Released November 5) Warner 57% Gilmore 35%
Analysis
This is probably going to be the most lop-sided victory by the challenging party in the entire season. What’s really ironic is that this race could’ve been a lot more competitive had the Republicans rallied behind Northern Virginia Congressman Tom Davis, who not only had a base of support in Democratic-leaning Northern Virginia, but could actually fundraise effectively. Instead the Republicans rallied behind decidedly unpopular former governor Jim Gilmore (who was forced to drop out of the presidential race because of, you guessed it, lack of funds). The only possible way to describe Gilmore is with what Senate2008Guru has said "Jim Gilmore... hahahahahahahahaha" The real irony of this particular race is that Mark Warner was also considering a presidential run this time around, but one of the more interesting rumors I’ve heard is that he decided against running because many of the donors who would’ve given to his campaign had already pledged themselves to Barack Obama (this hasn’t generated bad blood though, since Warner is, behind the scenes, rooting for Obama). So what we are left with is a race with a top-tier Democratic candidate who could’ve easily run a fifty-state strategy against an third-tier candidate who no one knows or likes. You can see why I rank this race Solid Democratic.
Expect an analysis of the New Mexico and New Hampshire (and possibly Louisiana) in the next few days.