As we saw in 2004 and again in 2006, the Netroots can serve as a rallying point for activists, even those in notably inactive areas of the country long overlooked by the national party. With the phenomenal successes our candidates have seen in terms of online organizing/fundraising this cycle, there's no reason to believe that 2008 will be any different.
The simple fact is that the internet offers campaigns the best organizational and fundraising bang for their buck, without question. A mass email to tens of thousands of potential contributors costs a fraction of a direct mail solicitation, and can provide funds within hours instead of days or weeks. And providing tools for self-directed organization, such as MyBarackObama.com, make it possible for even massive, well-funded operations to decentralize and benefit from grassroots support in areas that would be otherwise untouchable strategically.
All this leads to the likely conclusion that the Netroots will soon undergo a substantial expansion and reformation. How we approach this will likely determine our efficacy and influence for the rest of the decade and beyond.
First, our overall traffic (and our potential strength) will likely increase, especially on community sites like DailyKos, MyDD and OpenLeft. More than any other reason, this is why we need to emphasize party unity and avoid alienating the supporters of either campaign. It's quite possible that we could see the national Netroots fracture into a pro-administration camp and an anti-administration camp, each with sufficient organizational strength to play havoc with the other and with an adversarial impression of the other. The Rightroots, all acknowledge, are still several years behind us in terms of online capacity, so it seems the biggest threats to our future success are mostly internal ones. We have the potential to be not just our own worst enemy, but a very effective enemy at that. A strongly adversarial relationship within the Netroots must be avoided, or else we risk tripping over our own feet on the march to progress.
Second, we're likely to see a greater emphasis on local organization. This development has been fostered and cheered on for several years now by most of our big-name bloggers, including the proprietor of this site. Translating online strength into off-line organization has been a challenging task for our side. We had early successes with the Dean MeetUp program, which helped organize a decentralized structure for the insurgent campaign. Now we're potentially facing a situation where we'll have plenty of activists and unprecedented access to the party infrastructure. The parallel structures created through online organization can be coupled in many areas with the party structures we've worked around for several years--in some ways, our parallel structures may well supplant the preexisting party ones. This should cause a greater symbiosis between the Netroots and the party to develop. While this is on the whole likely to be a positive development, it may make it harder in the short run for us to demand accountability from the administration and party leaders. We've always been an opposition movement, and the transition to a leadership movement could be messy, and it could be vituperative (given the fractious way the primary has played out online, I'd say vituperation is probable to the point of near-certainty). How we handle this transition will determine whether we become the gadflies of the Party or its vanguard.
Third (and I know this is going to elicit groans from all sides), we need to have more meta conversations. We need to all become more familiar with Netroots Theory, because the changes we're likely to see within this next year could have profound ramifications for American political development, and we--the pajama-clad masses--are going to be tasked with determining what works, what doesn't, and what is harmful to our cause of producing Progressive change in Washington and around the country. In many instances, we'll be forced to choose the lesser of two evils; in many other instances, we'll be looking for the greater of two goods. Understanding what our movement is, and where we want to take it during a Democratic administration (a situation we've never had before), is going to be critical if we want to avoid chaos. How should we interact with allied groups when we disagree with their goals or tactics? How do we best advocate President Obama or President Clinton's agenda when dealing with our elected leaders, and how do we leverage our power to influence that agenda without marginalizing ourselves?
If I had to guess, I'd say we're heading into an era of a tripartite Netroots:
~One faction (the Pragmatists) will work with the party leaders and the administration when necessary to promote the most progressive agenda possible. I think the diary sections on dKos and MyDD may become the rallying points for this wing, though I wouldn't be surprised if a site more directly geared towards this wing emerges (it could possibly be that MyBarackObama.com simply morphs into this role after the election).
~Another faction (the Idealists) will work against the party leaders and the administration when necessary to promote the most progressive agenda possible. I imagine that figures like Matt Stoller, David Sirota and Howie Klein will play lead roles in forming this wing.
~A third faction (the Organizers) will leverage the collective strength of the Netroots to create pressure for change at the state and local level. This is the faction I think has the greatest potential for overall growth after this election, as new activists look for ways to keep involved in more than just conversations about national policy. State-based blogs will likely be the focal points for this wing, though I'd like to see DFA develop into a sort of 'conference room' for their activities, since they have a long record of looking downticket for opportunities to create progressive change.
I consider these divisions to largely be based on philosophical splits--the Pragmatist wing will seek to implement what's politically possible before the 2010 elections, the Idealist wing will seek to create a greater leftward shift in anticipation of the 2010 elections, and the Organizer wing will seek to use our newfound strength to continue to expand the progressive movement around the country. All are necessary tasks, and each requires a high degree of focus.
Though I think we're looking at a coming schism, I doubt very much that the divisions will be perfectly delineated, and I expect there to be plenty of overlap among the three factions. In fact, I hope that DailyKos especially remains a site where all three factions can mill about and interact comfortably with each other, without any one group feeling so alienated as to view our community with hostility. Again, this will be better facilitated if and when we tone down the intra-party Presidential Primary attacks and begin reuniting the party.
I could, however, be completely wrong about this split (both in terms of its likelihood and its form), and would be interested in hearing your opinions on things to come. Because, at the end of the day, it's how we approach this brave new world as individuals that will determine the overall shape of our movement in the years ahead.
The one thing we can all be sure of, though, is that things are going to change, and how we handle it will determine the future of our movement and our party.