While drinking my coffee this morning and pondering the latest "delegate calculations", incorporating such unknown factors as the now imfamous superdelegates, it dawned on me: what IF, the democratic primary was structured as the GOP primary is: that being, winner take all. My conclusions? To this point, Obama is ahead by nearly the same number of delegates under either model!! Follow with me......
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all delegate numbers taken from:
New York Times
Below is 'the math" as Comrade Karl likes to say. The bottom line is this: in a winner take all scenario, Obama would lead Clinton right now (not counting Michigan and Florida) by 1560 to 1326. Of the remaining races, its safe to say that Hillary is favored to win OH, RI, IN, WV. Obama is favored to win TX, VT, WY, MS, Guam, NC, KY, OR, MT, SD and PR. Those totals would be: Clinton 504, Obama 553. The total Obama lead would be 283 delgates, not counting Michigan and Florida. Obama would have the nomination. HOWEVER, with FL and MI, Hillary would have the nomination. HOWEVER, if Michigan were to have a do-over primary, its same to assume that Obama would prevail, on the strength of the Detroit vote, thus throwing the entire nomination back to Obama.
So what is the point of all this? In my opinion, a winner take all primary is the best system. It would avoid all of the near victories and super delegate issues going into the convention and allows a single candidate to build a consensus for the nomination.
An observation I might share when breaking down the numbers is that it seems that Mark Penn has devised a plan to win a general election, not a primary, as Obama has. That will likely be a never healing black mark on his record. Hillary is losing the election in all the states that to the mind of her camp in the DLC simply never mattered. Obama and his team realized this, and are exploiting it, along with thier money advantage all the way to victory.
Hillary Clinton Victories and Totals
NH 30
MI 0 (156)
NV 33
FL 0 (210)
Am Samoa 9
AZ 67
AK 47
CA 441
MA 121
NJ 127
NM 38
NY 281
OK 47
TN 85
TOTAL: 1326
Barack Obama Victories and Totals
IA 57
SC 54
AL 60
AK 18
CO 71
CT 60
DE 23
GA 103
ID 23
IL 185
KS 41
MN 121
MO 88
ND 21
UT 29
Dem Abroad 11
LA 66
NB 31
WA 97
VI 9
ME 34
DOC 37
ML 99
VA 101
HI 29
WI 92
Totals 1560
Remaining Primarys
OH 161 Clinton
RI 32 Clinton
TX 228 Obama
VT 23 Obama
WY 18 Obama
MS 40 Obama
PE 188 Clinton
Guam 9 Obama
IN 84 Clinton
NC 134 Obama
WV 39 Clinton
KY 60 Obama
OR 65 Obama
MT 24 Obama
SD 23 Obama
PR 63 Obama Puerto Rico IS a winner take all primary
Obama/Projected Remaining 553
Clinton/Projected Remaining 504