Later this week I will go back and tally up all my predictions this cycle. Get this -- some were good, and some were bad. Some were REAL bad. It's like flipping a coin -- but fun!
So here goes again. I must admit that my Texas prediction feels pretty good. I don't mean it as in "I know it's true", because no one really knows until the voters have spoken. I mean it as in, "I've got a good sense of the dynamics in the state". I am basing that prediction on some sort of data.
Ohio, on the other hand, is an enigma to me. I don't get the state at the gut level. I've read the reports, pored over the polls, and tried to get a sense of where things are headed. Heck, I'm even trying to figure out what it means that Obama decided to spend the last 48 hours of the campaign in Texas, not Ohio. Does that mean that he's giving up on Ohio because it's out of reach? Or does it mean his campaign thinks it's close enough to minimize the damage and they'd rather shoot for the big win in Texas? Beats me. So my Ohio prediction truly feels more like a simple "guess" than an "educated guess", which is where I am with Texas.
One quick point -- I think Clinton has gained some ground (or at least stemmed the bleeding) in the last few days. So that is playing a role in lowering my numbers for Obama from what they would've been a week ago.
In any case, enough caveats:
Ohio: Clinton +4
Texas: Obama +12
Rhode Island: Clinton +6
Vermont: Obama +35